Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Weskan, KS
December 5, 2023 7:53 PM CST (01:53 UTC)
Sunrise 7:42AM Sunset 5:25PM Moonrise 12:24AM Moonset 1:39PM
Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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FXUS63 KGLD 052337 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 437 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2023
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2023
Upper ridge axis moves into the central Rockies tonight and across the central plains tomorrow. There is a shortwave trough coming up the back of the ridge axis from the southwest Wednesday night. Zonal flow follows for Thursday. At the surface, a lee trough will be located over the area on Wednesday before it is swept eastward by a Pacific cold front on Thursday.
No precipitation is expected through Thursday night. Temperatures will be much above normal Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Downslope warming due to southwest surface winds on Wednesday may add a few degrees. Afternoon relative humidity minimums fall below 20 percent both days. Wind speeds remain light on Wednesday due to proximity to surface trough. They do increase slightly on Thursday behind the weak front, but gusts remain below 20 kts. Mixing heights are very low both days. So, expecting elevated fire weather conditions both days due to low humidity and dry fuels, but should remain below critical criteria.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2023
The main focus for the extended period will be for wintry weather returning to the area Friday into Sunday. Guidance is struggling on how strong the system will be as it is over the region before it deepens into a powerful low over the eastern CONUS. A surface low looks to develop across the Oklahoma Panhandle during the day Friday as a cold front sags into the NW portion of the area. Moisture looks to be a little bit better during the day as the front moves in. So confidence has increased a little bit in precipitation starting earlier in the day Friday. With the earlier start time, after collaboration with neighboring offices have trended high temperatures down a few degrees mainly for along and north of Interstate 70.
As for timing of the precipitation, current expectations are that it will begin in NW portions of the area (Yuma, Dundy counties )
between sunrise and noon and then slowly overspread the rest of the area through the evening hours before ending before noon MT Saturday. For the type of precipitation, it appears that a brief period of light rain will be possible along the front as it progresses to the SE, but will quickly change over to all snow as wet bulb zero heights support this on the NAM, GFS and ECMWF.
Hazard wise, breezy northerly winds up to 30 mph as snow is falling as of this forecast appears to be the relative biggest hazard as visibility will be reduced. Snowfall amounts still remain around or less than 0.5 inches with the highest favoring E Colorado.
Looking aloft at lapse rates and EPV* for convective elements, guidance has been trending a little to the potential for some convective bands to materialize across the area. If this were to occur then localized areas would see greater impacts as some would have the potential to see heavier amounts. Low confidence in exactly where these bands may set up is low confidence right now, but hopefully has hi-res data starts coming in, can start to have a better idea of where/if these bands were to form. Interesting enough as well looking at CIPS analogs, out of the top 4 best matched days, had banded areas of 1-2 inches stretching into NW Kansas, 1 day of of a widespread 1 inch or less snow and another with 3-5 inches of snow expanding into NW Kansas. The other hazard to keep an eye on is roadway freeze potential as precip will fall before freezing temperatures will set in, as black ice may form especially on bridges and overpasses.
Saturday, the snow will end throughout the day, however the winds will continue as the system begins to deepen east of the area. Winds look to remain gusting in the 40 mph range throughout the day. If any accumulating snow does fall, then blowing snow would remain a concern throughout the day Saturday. High temperatures for the day are forecast in the upper 30s to mid 40s west to east across the area. NW flow then looks to take hold across the area for the latter portion of the weekend and into the new work week, with closer to normal temperatures currently forecasted as highs will be in the 40s and no hazards presenting themselves at this time.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 435 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2023
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Southwesterly to westerly winds will be light through the TAF.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 437 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2023
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2023
Upper ridge axis moves into the central Rockies tonight and across the central plains tomorrow. There is a shortwave trough coming up the back of the ridge axis from the southwest Wednesday night. Zonal flow follows for Thursday. At the surface, a lee trough will be located over the area on Wednesday before it is swept eastward by a Pacific cold front on Thursday.
No precipitation is expected through Thursday night. Temperatures will be much above normal Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Downslope warming due to southwest surface winds on Wednesday may add a few degrees. Afternoon relative humidity minimums fall below 20 percent both days. Wind speeds remain light on Wednesday due to proximity to surface trough. They do increase slightly on Thursday behind the weak front, but gusts remain below 20 kts. Mixing heights are very low both days. So, expecting elevated fire weather conditions both days due to low humidity and dry fuels, but should remain below critical criteria.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2023
The main focus for the extended period will be for wintry weather returning to the area Friday into Sunday. Guidance is struggling on how strong the system will be as it is over the region before it deepens into a powerful low over the eastern CONUS. A surface low looks to develop across the Oklahoma Panhandle during the day Friday as a cold front sags into the NW portion of the area. Moisture looks to be a little bit better during the day as the front moves in. So confidence has increased a little bit in precipitation starting earlier in the day Friday. With the earlier start time, after collaboration with neighboring offices have trended high temperatures down a few degrees mainly for along and north of Interstate 70.
As for timing of the precipitation, current expectations are that it will begin in NW portions of the area (Yuma, Dundy counties )
between sunrise and noon and then slowly overspread the rest of the area through the evening hours before ending before noon MT Saturday. For the type of precipitation, it appears that a brief period of light rain will be possible along the front as it progresses to the SE, but will quickly change over to all snow as wet bulb zero heights support this on the NAM, GFS and ECMWF.
Hazard wise, breezy northerly winds up to 30 mph as snow is falling as of this forecast appears to be the relative biggest hazard as visibility will be reduced. Snowfall amounts still remain around or less than 0.5 inches with the highest favoring E Colorado.
Looking aloft at lapse rates and EPV* for convective elements, guidance has been trending a little to the potential for some convective bands to materialize across the area. If this were to occur then localized areas would see greater impacts as some would have the potential to see heavier amounts. Low confidence in exactly where these bands may set up is low confidence right now, but hopefully has hi-res data starts coming in, can start to have a better idea of where/if these bands were to form. Interesting enough as well looking at CIPS analogs, out of the top 4 best matched days, had banded areas of 1-2 inches stretching into NW Kansas, 1 day of of a widespread 1 inch or less snow and another with 3-5 inches of snow expanding into NW Kansas. The other hazard to keep an eye on is roadway freeze potential as precip will fall before freezing temperatures will set in, as black ice may form especially on bridges and overpasses.
Saturday, the snow will end throughout the day, however the winds will continue as the system begins to deepen east of the area. Winds look to remain gusting in the 40 mph range throughout the day. If any accumulating snow does fall, then blowing snow would remain a concern throughout the day Saturday. High temperatures for the day are forecast in the upper 30s to mid 40s west to east across the area. NW flow then looks to take hold across the area for the latter portion of the weekend and into the new work week, with closer to normal temperatures currently forecasted as highs will be in the 40s and no hazards presenting themselves at this time.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 435 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2023
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Southwesterly to westerly winds will be light through the TAF.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
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Goodland, KS,
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