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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Weskan, KS

February 8, 2025 1:53 PM CST (19:53 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:39 AM   Sunset 6:16 PM
Moonrise 2:11 PM   Moonset 5:17 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weskan, KS
   
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Area Discussion for Goodland, KS
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FXUS63 KGLD 081645 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 945 AM MST Sat Feb 8 2025

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy (25-45 mph) north winds will affect the majority of the area early this morning. Winds will weaken during the late morning, decreasing to 10-20 mph this afternoon.

- Wind chill readings approaching -15F and light snow accumulation are possible Monday evening through Thursday morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 826 AM MST Sat Feb 8 2025

Only change to the forecast for today was to add in flurries across the northwest portion of the forecast area. Fairly good agreement on pockets of 0.5 to 1 km omega and higher PVV max in the same layer which is aligning with the current echos across Washington, county Colorado and across SW Nebraska. Due to the cooler temperatures ice is more likely to be present in the clouds as well which again is supportive of flurries and/or light snow. RAP also suggests another corridor of this potential may develop across the southeast portions of the area later this morning as well so have added in the flurry mention across Gove, Wichita, Greeley,Logan and eastern Wallace counties as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 425 AM MST Sat Feb 8 2025

Synoptic Overview: Broad troughing will prevail over Canada and northern portions of the CONUS this weekend. Further south, over central-southern portions of the Rockies and Central/ Southern Plains, a speedy unidirectional (W-WSW) flow pattern will prevail.

Today: An inverted surface ridge associated with Arctic high pressure (centered over MT-ND-SD, where 850 mb temps are -14 to -17C at 09Z) will extend southward through the Central Plains early this morning.. the leading edge of which will manifest as a northerly wind shift and effective cold frontal passage. Low- level (surface to 850 mb) cold advection in the wake of the front will conclude by ~15Z.. when guidance indicates that 850 mb temperatures in the Goodland county warning area will bottom- out around -4 to -8C (coldest in southwest Nebraska). Ongoing stratus and fog in northwest KS (at 09Z) will be scoured away by the cold/dry airmass surging into the region from the north..
by ~12Z (north of I-70) to ~15Z (south of I-70). With a colder, newly deposited airmass over the region, expect highs noticeably colder than yesterday, ranging from ~32-40F, coldest in southwest Nebraska.

Tonight: A locally colder airmass (-3 to -6C at 850 mb) at lower elevations in the lee of the central Rockies (i.e. eastern CO,far western KS) will foster the development of a mesoscale high directly over northwest KS. Shortwave energy presently moving ashore the Pacific Northwest coast will traverse the Intermountain West (today).. then rapidly lift ENE across WY-SD- NE tonight.. on the northern fringe of a powerful (~150 knot), WSW-ENE oriented upper level (~250 mb) jet centered (roughly) at 40N latitude. Guidance indicates increasing mid- upper level cloud cover north of I-70 overnight (~06-12Z).. presumably in association with a short period of modest mid- level (700-500 mb) frontogenesis accompanying the aforementioned shortwave (progressing ENE across WY-SD-NE). The presence of a very dry low-level airmass.. the absence of any low-level forcing and the fleeting, modest nature of mid-upper level forcing suggest that measurable precipitation (snow) is unlikely. Simulated reflectivity and precipitation forecasts via virtually all high- res guidance (HRRR, RAP, NAM NEST, etc.) indicate as much. A period of flurries (e.g. 10SM -SN or 8SM -SN) is certainly possible.. mainly in southwest Nebraska between midnight and sunrise Sunday morning.

Sun-Sun night: The aforementioned low-level ridge / mesoscale high will persist over northwest KS on Sunday. Expect mostly clear skies, light/variable winds and temperatures ~4-9F warmer than today (though still slightly below average).. in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 210 AM MST Sat Feb 8 2025

The long-term will start off with an upper-level zonal pattern becoming southwesterly ahead of a broad trough impacting the High Plains by the mid-week. The axis of the broad trough looks to pass the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a ridge builds in from the west before another trough moves in over the weekend.

Down at 850 mb, Monday will see a high over the Mid- Mississippi River Valley, moving east as a broad low slowly forms in the Southern High Plains. This will funnel moisture into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Highs are currently forecast to warm into the mid to upper 30s. There is about a 20% chance that a large portion of the CWA will see drizzle or very light rain during the day Monday, before the low forms. The NBM is not picking up on this yet, but the GFS is starting to show signs of this potential. The signs include a dry layer around the 700 mb pressure with a saturated layer below, vertical Theta-e temperatures, a thermal inversion around the dry layer with the low-level layer only cooling to around -8 to -4C. The GFS is the most aggressive with this potential, but the ECMWF and CMC-NH weakly show it, too. The GFS does still have a 5-15F dewpoint depression at the surface, which would ruin these chances. If the drizzle/rain starts after the surface warms above freezing, black ice in the evening and overnight would be the biggest issue. However, if the temperature fails to get above freezing Monday and the drizzle/rain occurs, there could be widespread impacts. Bottom line, there's a small chance for big impacts.

As the low forms Monday evening, snow is expected to occur across most, if not all, of the area. Snowfall totals look to be around the 1-3 inch range for Monday afternoon through Tuesday mid-day. Guidance is suggesting the aforementioned 850 mb high will force the low to progress to the south-southeast overnight Monday. Overnight temperatures look to drop into the lower single digits Monday night, leading to wind chills in the -15 to -5F range.

During the day Tuesday, the 850 mb high looks to exit to the east and later allow another lee low to form in the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. This will funnel arctic air into the CWA, keeping highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid teens to low 20s. With winds ranging from 10-20 kts, maximum wind chills for both of these days may not warm out of the single digits.

Returning to the low Tuesday evening, this will give us a second chance at snow, mainly overnight Tuesday into Wednesday mid-day. This second round will have additional moisture to work with as the moist conveyor belt will have been running the entire time up to this point. This is looking like our better chance at increased snow accumulation since the low will eject to the east, across the TX/OK panhandles. Most of the snow looks to be focused in the eastern CWA For locations east of highway 25, the NBM 25-75 shows a range of 2-7 inches while west of the highway is in the 1-4 inch range.

Overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will be heavily dependent on the speed of the low. Currently (slower option), southeasterly winds and cloud cover will keep Tuesday night's temperatures in the low single digits while Wednesday night will see temperatures around 0F from slowly clearing skies and northeasterly winds. If the low speeds up, Tuesday night could see the northeasterly winds moving in, dropping temperatures to around 0F while Wednesday night would have clear skies much sooner and weak flow, allowing temperatures to drop to around the -5F mark. The current, slower option has wind chills dropping to around -15 to -5 Tuesday night and about 3 to 5 degrees cooler Wednesday night. If the faster option plays out, wind chills Tuesday could be closer to the -20 to -10 range with Wednesday night potentially seeing some isolated -25F wind chills.

Once the upper-level ridge starts building in Thursday, temperatures will slowly climb. NBM is suggesting highs around 30 Thursday and about 5-10 degrees warmer for Friday. Depending on how much snow accumulates, these temperatures may be too warm. To complicate temperatures even more, GFS, CMC-NH, and ECMWF are all showing a southerly 850 mb LLJ forming during the day Friday. This could allow the southern portions of the CWA to warm into the mid 50s, and funnel more moisture into the area.
This LLJ is attached to a new lee low that will eject across the High Plains Friday evening/night. This will give us another chance at snow Friday into Saturday. Little is certain about this system yet, but be aware, this will be our third chance of snow in the long-term.

List of acronyms NBM - National Blend of Models GFS - Global Forecast System GEFS - GFS Ensemble Forecast System ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts CMC-NH - Canadian Meteorological Centre-Northern Hemisphere NDFD - National Digital Forecast Database PoP - Probability Of Precipitation LLJ - Low Level Jet RH - Relative Humidity F/C - Fahrenheit/Celsius mb - Millibar kts - Knots Z - Zulu time (UTC)
CWA - County Warning Area CONUS - CONtiguous United States

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 940 AM MST Sat Feb 8 2025

Breezy winds are forecast to wane through the afternoon and slowly become more easterly. Clouds are then forecast to begin to develop around the KGLD terminal this afternoon but remaining VFR. A weak wave off of the Rockies will trek towards the region this evening bringing the potential for some near MVFR ceilings for KGLD through the morning hours Sunday. As for KMCK there is a potential for light snow at the terminal but some dry air near the surface lowers my confidence some so will opt to go with the PROB30 for now. Should snow occur for KMCK it is forecast to move out by mid morning Sunday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KITR29 sm60 minN 0910 smOvercast28°F9°F43%30.15

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Goodland, KS,





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