Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Weskan, KS
May 20, 2024 3:09 AM CDT (08:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 5:26 PM Moonset 3:47 AM |
FXUS63 KGLD 200733 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 133 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong to severe storms remain forecasted for today/tonight with hail around two inches in diameter and wind gusts around 70 mph possible. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for far SE/E counties.
- Storms; some severe north of Interstate 70 are forecast Monday. Main hazards are large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall.
- Cooler with frost concerns mid week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Across the region this afternoon, skies are a mixed sunny down to partly sunny. Not much remains from the morning veil of low cloud, as storms are starting to develop around the outskirts of the CWA
Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging in the 60s and 70s. The cooler temperatures are those locales still being affected by clouds. Winds are southerly with gusts into the 20-30 mph range at times.
The main wx threats in the short term period continue to be focused on strong to severe thunderstorms potential this afternoon/evening, as well as Monday/Monday evening and possibly on Tuesday.
For this afternoon/evening, the storm threat will focus on the environment east of a dryline around the Palmer Divide. Morning rainfall east may have helped to stabilize portions of the region, but with storms popping up around the outskirts of the CWA, any CIN from this morning is quickly eroding. In the south and west, SBCape has already jumped to 3000-4500j/kg, DCape in the 1000-1300j/kg range and with high dewpts still over the CWA, the airmass is primed for storms. SPC has a Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for KS counties from Graham southwest to Greeley. The main activity should stay east of these counties. It will be the storms that are forming along dryline/front which is slowly pushing towards the CO/KS/NE border.
Hail/wind still main threats, but can't rule out an isolated tornado or land spout. Heavy rainfall continues to accompany any storms that have occurred, so flooding still occur.
Storm activity tapers by 06z tonight, allowing for clouds/precip to clear from west to east. Guidance is hinting at some fog potential east, so have a mention in around 12z Monday.
As with past model runs, the Mon-Tue timeframe will continue to focus rw/trw activity mainly north of I-70, especially north of Highway 36. the aforementioned front/dryline does develop a low on its southern edge, settling south of the CWA Monday. A couple shortwaves will move eastward along the northern tier late Monday and again late Tuesday. The currently track will focus the highest pops(80-90%) from Highway 36 north. Ample low level moisture on Monday along the surface feature will interact with the passing shortwave to trigger convection. There are Slight/Marginal risk areas, divided by I-70. Wind/hail threats look most impactful.
Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out either. Tuesday will see similar conditions, ending with a cold frontal passage during the day.
Accompanying the storm threats, will be the potential for torrential rainfall. The pace of these storms through the CWA this morning has been mixed and did allow for 1-3" of rain in northeast zones. WPC does have a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall mainly east today and for Monday, Highway 36 north. The shift to the Mon-Tue rain setup will put most areas in flooding potential, especially those seeing ample QPF today and tonight.
For temps, looking for daytime highs on Monday to range from the mid 70s north into the lower and mid 80s south especially along/south of Highway 40. With the slow passage of the cold front, Tuesday will be much cooler with highs ranging from 60F in the northwest to the mid 70s in the south and far eastern zones. Central portions of the CWA will see a mix of 60s.
Overnight lows tonight and for Monday night will have a range from the mid 40s west into the mid and upper 50s east. Tuesday night however, with a cooler airmass still in place, upper 30s to the mid 40s are expected west of Highway 25. East of there, mid to upper 40s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 133 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024
An active weather pattern continues into the long term period as a series of shortwaves move through the region, providing additional chances (generally around 20-30%) for showers and storms.
At the start of the long term period, an approaching shortwave trough is lending to southwesterly flow aloft as an upper low is centered near the borders of ID/WY/MT. A surface low is forecast in the lee of the Rockies by Thursday afternoon-evening with model guidance suggesting convection developing out ahead of it. Friday will again see chances for showers and storms as another shortwave progresses through the flow during the afternoon-evening. Lesser confidence as we head into the weekend; however, guidance keeps shower/storm chances with a wave moving through in the Saturday- Sunday timeframe. As mentioned previously, better moisture and instability is forecast to reside across eastern portions of the area during much of the period.
Regarding temperatures, highs are forecast in the low to middle 80s for Thursday, cooler in the 70s for Friday, followed by a mix of middle 70s to low-middle 80s through the remainder of the long term.
For low temperatures, expecting generally middle 40s to low-middle 50s.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Due to the light winds and recent precipitation that has increased dew points, patchy to locally dense fog many form tonight and impact both KGLD and KMCK around 8-13Z. Dropping into IMC cannot be ruled out, but currently fog more dense than 3 mile visibility looks to be fairly uncommon due to a slight breeze. Around 13Z, the fog will be lifting and become a stratus deck, lasting until around 18Z. IFR ceilings are looking very possible early in the morning that will slowly lift to MVFR and then VFR by about mid-day. In the afternoon hours, starting around 20Z, showers and storms will move into the region from the northwest. These showers and storms currently look to linger until the end of the TAF period.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for NEZ080-081.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 133 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong to severe storms remain forecasted for today/tonight with hail around two inches in diameter and wind gusts around 70 mph possible. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for far SE/E counties.
- Storms; some severe north of Interstate 70 are forecast Monday. Main hazards are large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall.
- Cooler with frost concerns mid week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Across the region this afternoon, skies are a mixed sunny down to partly sunny. Not much remains from the morning veil of low cloud, as storms are starting to develop around the outskirts of the CWA
Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging in the 60s and 70s. The cooler temperatures are those locales still being affected by clouds. Winds are southerly with gusts into the 20-30 mph range at times.
The main wx threats in the short term period continue to be focused on strong to severe thunderstorms potential this afternoon/evening, as well as Monday/Monday evening and possibly on Tuesday.
For this afternoon/evening, the storm threat will focus on the environment east of a dryline around the Palmer Divide. Morning rainfall east may have helped to stabilize portions of the region, but with storms popping up around the outskirts of the CWA, any CIN from this morning is quickly eroding. In the south and west, SBCape has already jumped to 3000-4500j/kg, DCape in the 1000-1300j/kg range and with high dewpts still over the CWA, the airmass is primed for storms. SPC has a Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for KS counties from Graham southwest to Greeley. The main activity should stay east of these counties. It will be the storms that are forming along dryline/front which is slowly pushing towards the CO/KS/NE border.
Hail/wind still main threats, but can't rule out an isolated tornado or land spout. Heavy rainfall continues to accompany any storms that have occurred, so flooding still occur.
Storm activity tapers by 06z tonight, allowing for clouds/precip to clear from west to east. Guidance is hinting at some fog potential east, so have a mention in around 12z Monday.
As with past model runs, the Mon-Tue timeframe will continue to focus rw/trw activity mainly north of I-70, especially north of Highway 36. the aforementioned front/dryline does develop a low on its southern edge, settling south of the CWA Monday. A couple shortwaves will move eastward along the northern tier late Monday and again late Tuesday. The currently track will focus the highest pops(80-90%) from Highway 36 north. Ample low level moisture on Monday along the surface feature will interact with the passing shortwave to trigger convection. There are Slight/Marginal risk areas, divided by I-70. Wind/hail threats look most impactful.
Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out either. Tuesday will see similar conditions, ending with a cold frontal passage during the day.
Accompanying the storm threats, will be the potential for torrential rainfall. The pace of these storms through the CWA this morning has been mixed and did allow for 1-3" of rain in northeast zones. WPC does have a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall mainly east today and for Monday, Highway 36 north. The shift to the Mon-Tue rain setup will put most areas in flooding potential, especially those seeing ample QPF today and tonight.
For temps, looking for daytime highs on Monday to range from the mid 70s north into the lower and mid 80s south especially along/south of Highway 40. With the slow passage of the cold front, Tuesday will be much cooler with highs ranging from 60F in the northwest to the mid 70s in the south and far eastern zones. Central portions of the CWA will see a mix of 60s.
Overnight lows tonight and for Monday night will have a range from the mid 40s west into the mid and upper 50s east. Tuesday night however, with a cooler airmass still in place, upper 30s to the mid 40s are expected west of Highway 25. East of there, mid to upper 40s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 133 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024
An active weather pattern continues into the long term period as a series of shortwaves move through the region, providing additional chances (generally around 20-30%) for showers and storms.
At the start of the long term period, an approaching shortwave trough is lending to southwesterly flow aloft as an upper low is centered near the borders of ID/WY/MT. A surface low is forecast in the lee of the Rockies by Thursday afternoon-evening with model guidance suggesting convection developing out ahead of it. Friday will again see chances for showers and storms as another shortwave progresses through the flow during the afternoon-evening. Lesser confidence as we head into the weekend; however, guidance keeps shower/storm chances with a wave moving through in the Saturday- Sunday timeframe. As mentioned previously, better moisture and instability is forecast to reside across eastern portions of the area during much of the period.
Regarding temperatures, highs are forecast in the low to middle 80s for Thursday, cooler in the 70s for Friday, followed by a mix of middle 70s to low-middle 80s through the remainder of the long term.
For low temperatures, expecting generally middle 40s to low-middle 50s.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Due to the light winds and recent precipitation that has increased dew points, patchy to locally dense fog many form tonight and impact both KGLD and KMCK around 8-13Z. Dropping into IMC cannot be ruled out, but currently fog more dense than 3 mile visibility looks to be fairly uncommon due to a slight breeze. Around 13Z, the fog will be lifting and become a stratus deck, lasting until around 18Z. IFR ceilings are looking very possible early in the morning that will slowly lift to MVFR and then VFR by about mid-day. In the afternoon hours, starting around 20Z, showers and storms will move into the region from the northwest. These showers and storms currently look to linger until the end of the TAF period.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for NEZ080-081.
Goodland, KS,
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