Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lower Lake, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:49PM Thursday December 5, 2019 11:17 AM PST (19:17 UTC) Moonrise 1:40PMMoonset 12:40AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 819 Am Pst Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Friday evening...
Today..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 13 seconds. A slight chance of rain.
Tonight..SE winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Wind waves 7 to 8 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of rain.
Fri..SE winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Wind waves 8 to 9 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 16 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..S winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Wind waves 8 to 9 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 17 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sat..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 9 to 11 ft at 13 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 9 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..E winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft and sw around 2 ft. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
PZZ500 819 Am Pst Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Moderate southerly winds today ahead of an approaching low pressure will strengthen further late tonight into Friday with an arriving cold front. Gale force winds are expected late Thursday night and into Friday. Moderate northwest swell will gradually build to around 10 to 15 feet Friday over the northern waters then spread south across the coastal waters over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lower Lake, CA
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location: 38.89, -122.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Sacramento, CA
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FXUS66 KSTO 051152 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 352 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. Scattered light showers today before another winter storm will bring periods of rain and mountain snow and hazardous travel Friday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION.

Just a brief break in the wet wx for today as short wave ridging builds over the CWA in the wake of the departing low pressure system to our east and the next mid latitude cyclone near 140W. Lingering showers noted in the Sierra and over the 80/50 corridor with the Colfax snow profiler showing the snow level around 7 kft. Although many areas will not see precip today, models suggest some light WAA precip may develop or spread Nwd in our CWA over areas mainly to the north of the I-80 corridor during the day. Topographic/orographic influences from the upslope Sly flow from the rising 5H heights may be enough to squeeze out a few hundredths. Any partial clearing early this morning will be short-lived, as the GFS simulated satellite indicates clouds just offshore will overspread Norcal during the day.

The next winter storm (mentioned above near 140W) is shaping up to be another impactful winter storm that will bring hazardous mountain travel Friday into the weekend. U.S. West Coast AR Landfall Tool shows a moderate TPW plume (AR) at 37-41 deg N latitude putting the 80/50 corridor right in its path. Heavy mountain snow with significant travel impacts is expected to begin late Friday for elevations above 6000-6500 ft. Models have been slowing down the onset of the precip in our CWA, e.g. BUFKIT for BLU begins precip around 05z Sat (or 9 pm PST Fri). Will continue the Winter Storm Watch as another model run or two could assist in locking in better timing of the precip.

Another soaking rain is expected with 1 to 3 inches of rain forecast for the Valley and 4 to over 6 inches of liquid precip for the Nrn mtns/W Slope Sierra, with as much as 7 inches in Shasta Co. (The QPF follows fairly closely with the ECMWF ensemble spread for the Valley sites, but exceeds the mean of the ensemble for BlU by about an inch and a half.) Once again this storm has the potential for several feet of snow to accumulate over the high Sierra. Snow levels will be above 6 Kft at the onset, and then should lower below 6 Kft on Sun as the upper low drops Swd over our Norcal. Satellite indicates a well developed comma cloud (baroclinic leaf) with lots of cold, unstable air associated with it. As this colder air approaches our area Sat, and moves over CWA on Sun, we have introduced a chance of thunderstorms in the Valley and W Slope Sierra foothills. Small hail/graupel is likely with these storms as indicated by the "thin CAPE" on the forecast soundings. Precip forecast to wind down Sun nite, followed by dry wx to start the work week.

Additionally, Sly pressure gradients should tighten dramatically with the approaching surface front leading to WAD criteria for the Valley as a 50+ kt LLJ (NAM 925 mbs winds) develops Fri evening. Breezy to windy conditions should last into Sat. Similar to the last event, the isothermal lapse rates caused by the WAA will preclude downward momentum transfer of all of the LLJ wind. As a rule-of- thumb, the peak wind gusts end up to be about 2/3 of the 925 mbs winds in these isothermal profile cases. JHM

EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday).

Ensemble and model guidance hold firm on ridge building over the Pacific Northwest early in the week. This will lead to at least a short stretch of dry weather, with the potential for some fog Tuesday morning. Looking towards to the mid to late portion of the work week, model and ensemble guidance continue to deviate from each other. Much like yesterday afternoon's runs, there is uncertainty as to when and where the next trough sets up. Some ensemble members suggest we could see light precip over northern California, with the NBM being one of them. Ended up going a blend of the NBM to get some PoP north of I-80 for Wednesday and then over the Cascades and Coastal range for Thursday. Confidence is low on this occurring for the time being, thus we'll be keeping a close eye on how the models and ensembles handle the situation.

Temperatures are forecast to be within +/-5 degrees or so of their seasonal average for both daytime highs and morning lows.

AVIATION.

Stratus and patchy areas of dense fog have been observed at the TAF sites this morning. With moisture lingering expect to see periods of local IFR/LIFR with low cigs and BR through the morning. Showers currently linger in the Sierra this morning but will become more focused in the northern portion of the Valley and coastal and Cascade mountain later today.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 56 mi92 min E 6 55°F 1020 hPa55°F
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 58 mi27 min ESE 16 G 21 55°F 55°F6 ft1018.3 hPa51°F
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 59 mi53 min ESE 8 G 14 57°F 53°F1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA29 mi24 minSSE 79.00 miFog/Mist57°F54°F90%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTS

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3N4CalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmN3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE7SE7
1 day agoCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4N3N7NW3SE4S3CalmCalmCalmW3
2 days agoE5E10E3E6E6CalmE5CalmS3CalmCalmN4CalmNE3CalmN4N5N4CalmSE4CalmS3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Napa, Napa River, Carquinez Strait, California
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Napa
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:36 AM PST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:17 AM PST     6.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:05 PM PST     2.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:57 PM PST     5.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.61.11.11.62.63.95.16.16.66.55.95432.32.12.43.24.25.15.45.24.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Ross, California
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Fort Ross
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:43 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:10 AM PST     4.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:43 PM PST     2.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:41 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:50 PM PST     3.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.62.43.24.14.754.94.43.83.12.52.122.32.83.33.73.83.63.22.61.91.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Sacramento, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.