Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Racine, OH
May 4, 2024 2:52 AM EDT (06:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM Moonset 3:32 PM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 040601 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 201 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 930 PM Friday...
Scattered showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder continue across portions of the area, particularly our far northeast zones in West Virginia. Locally heavy rain up to the tune of nearly 2" or so has been observed across portions of northeast West Virginia this evening. Fortunately, antecedent dry conditions mitigated any water issues of note. Isolated heavy downpours are possible over the next hour or two, with a transition to the chance for mainly isolated and lighter showers throughout the rest of the overnight. Some fog development is anticipated tonight, particularly in areas that received rainfall this evening. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 355 PM Friday...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed once again this afternoon along the spine of the higher terrain courtesy of diurnal anabatic convergence. Have introduced likely PoPs into the evening across this area, with some locally heavy downpours possible. Given weak low/mid mean layer flow from the southwest, activity should continue to gradually meander northeastward. Given the slow movement, a highly isolated water issue or two cannot be ruled out, but rain rates should generally ease as time goes on given a developing cold pool across the region. Further west, SCT showers are moving into the Mid-Ohio Valley as weak mid/upper level forcing begins to push into the region. Showers will continue to shift eastward throughout the late afternoon into the evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 129 PM Friday...
As a cold front approaches from the west, several H700 shortwaves will cross the area providing forcing to sustain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into Saturday. There could be a reduction in coverage and intensity of precipitation at night, but thunderstorms should fire up once again Saturday afternoon with better instability present.
Convection is anticipated to be rather disorganized and non-severe.
However, PWATs values around 1.5 inches under weak deep layered shear may produce localized heavy downpours conducive to minor water issues on Saturday. However, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry soil conditions.
Warm and humid air in place will keep lows tonight generally in the mid to lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. For Saturday, abundant clouds and cooling showers will keep highs in the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 1128 AM Friday...
More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65 degrees.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1129 AM Friday...
The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure strengthening over the Great Lakes.
Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler weather returning.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 200 AM Saturday...
Isolated to scattered showers continue to move across the area, bringing periodic restrictions to visibility early this morning. Additional CIG/VIS restrictions will be possible in low stratus and some areas of fog developing this morning.
MVFR ceilings are expected to spread to most locations during the day as a passing disturbance brings more showers and storms across the area. A temporary improvement could occur this afternoon, then ceilings should lower again beyond 00Z.
Visibilities will also continue to be impaired today into tonight during any heavier showers or storms.
Calm to light and variable flow will persist through the early morning. Flow becomes southerly to southeasterly during the day, with light sustained winds and 15-20kt gusts possible along the mountains this afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of restrictions due to fog or low stratus may vary from the forecast this morning.
Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may also vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/04/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers, stratus, and/or fog late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 201 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 930 PM Friday...
Scattered showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder continue across portions of the area, particularly our far northeast zones in West Virginia. Locally heavy rain up to the tune of nearly 2" or so has been observed across portions of northeast West Virginia this evening. Fortunately, antecedent dry conditions mitigated any water issues of note. Isolated heavy downpours are possible over the next hour or two, with a transition to the chance for mainly isolated and lighter showers throughout the rest of the overnight. Some fog development is anticipated tonight, particularly in areas that received rainfall this evening. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 355 PM Friday...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed once again this afternoon along the spine of the higher terrain courtesy of diurnal anabatic convergence. Have introduced likely PoPs into the evening across this area, with some locally heavy downpours possible. Given weak low/mid mean layer flow from the southwest, activity should continue to gradually meander northeastward. Given the slow movement, a highly isolated water issue or two cannot be ruled out, but rain rates should generally ease as time goes on given a developing cold pool across the region. Further west, SCT showers are moving into the Mid-Ohio Valley as weak mid/upper level forcing begins to push into the region. Showers will continue to shift eastward throughout the late afternoon into the evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 129 PM Friday...
As a cold front approaches from the west, several H700 shortwaves will cross the area providing forcing to sustain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into Saturday. There could be a reduction in coverage and intensity of precipitation at night, but thunderstorms should fire up once again Saturday afternoon with better instability present.
Convection is anticipated to be rather disorganized and non-severe.
However, PWATs values around 1.5 inches under weak deep layered shear may produce localized heavy downpours conducive to minor water issues on Saturday. However, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry soil conditions.
Warm and humid air in place will keep lows tonight generally in the mid to lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. For Saturday, abundant clouds and cooling showers will keep highs in the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 1128 AM Friday...
More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65 degrees.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1129 AM Friday...
The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure strengthening over the Great Lakes.
Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler weather returning.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 200 AM Saturday...
Isolated to scattered showers continue to move across the area, bringing periodic restrictions to visibility early this morning. Additional CIG/VIS restrictions will be possible in low stratus and some areas of fog developing this morning.
MVFR ceilings are expected to spread to most locations during the day as a passing disturbance brings more showers and storms across the area. A temporary improvement could occur this afternoon, then ceilings should lower again beyond 00Z.
Visibilities will also continue to be impaired today into tonight during any heavier showers or storms.
Calm to light and variable flow will persist through the early morning. Flow becomes southerly to southeasterly during the day, with light sustained winds and 15-20kt gusts possible along the mountains this afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of restrictions due to fog or low stratus may vary from the forecast this morning.
Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may also vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/04/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers, stratus, and/or fog late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Charleston, WV,
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