Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:45AM||Sunset 8:12PM||Friday August 23, 2019 8:08 AM EDT (12:08 UTC)||Moonrise 11:43PM||Moonset 1:20PM||Illumination 46%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, OHHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 krlx 231039|
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
639 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
Cold front finally exits to the south today. High pressure with
dry, cooler weather for the weekend.
Near term through tonight
As of 625 am Friday...
showers widespread this morning, should dry out north to south
later today in a gradual manner. Some minor pop adjustments, but
the formation of the showers has continued to follow that low
As of 235 am Friday...
in the midst of strengthening lower level 900-800mb
frontogenesis, so expect the coverage of showers to increase
through sunrise this morning. A weak wave of surface low
pressure is keeping the forward motion of the cold front to a
minimum but should see the front clear our portion of the
mountains after 15z. The pops continue in the wake of the front,
however, due to a 500mb axis embedded in the very broad
cyclonic flow over the great lakes. Much drier air at the
surface, lower, and mid levels moves in with this wholesale
airmass change once the wave aloft passes and high pressure
builds over the great lakes. Lower dewpoints tonight allow for
lows to drop back into a more comfortable range after a few days
of heat across the region.
Short term Saturday through Monday
As of 313 am Friday...
mainly dry conditions are expected on Saturday due to the influence
of an expansive surface high centered in quebec. However, can't
completely rule out a few isolated showers storms Saturday afternoon
in extreme southeastern zones where better quality moisture and
instability is expected (dewpoints in the low mid 60s and cape
around 1,000 j kg). The greatest chance of any precipitation will be
in southwest va where low chance pops are in place. Elsewhere, the
atmosphere will be very dry with surface dewpoints in the mid upper
50s, yielding pwats between a half inch to an inch. With high
temperatures forecast to reach the upper 70s low 80s, fantastic
weather is expected with comfortable humidity levels.
As the aforementioned high pressure shifts east towards the canadian
maritimes on Sunday, return flow will give temperatures a boost of a
few degrees. This should translate to highs in the low 80s across
the lowlands on Sunday afternoon, just a degree or two below normal
for this time of the year. Upper ridge axis across the great lakes
should provide for a mainly dry forecast once again, but some low
pops are included across southern areas as a cut-off low rotates
east of the area in the mid-atlantic region. Regardless, with little
to no instability expected and subsidence in place, most of the
region should be dry.
By Monday, upper ridge axis continues to push to the east and a
shortwave trough will move across the midwest. This leading
shortwave trough will eventually become absorbed by a larger scale
trough emerging from the northern plains late in the short term
period. However, the leading shortwave trough may get close enough
to our region on Monday afternoon to bring an increase in pops from
west to east through the day, as the GFS suggests. The ecmwf,
however, is slower with the arrival of the leading trough and thus,
holds off on most of the precip towards mainly the long term period.
For now, went with a consenus blend of models which does support
slight chance pops across the region Monday afternoon into the
Long term Monday night through Thursday
As of 313 am Friday... |
by Monday night, the aforementioned main trough axis will extend
from the canadian prairies southeastward into the ohio valley,
pushing a cold front through our region on Tuesday. This will bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the area on Tuesday.
With models projecting pwats around 1.50-1.75 inches, heavy
downpours will be possible. There also will be some modest shear,
with models at this distance suggesting around 30 kts in the 0-6 km
layer. However, instability will be in question given the abundant
cloud cover that is expected.
Precipitation will end from west to east throughout the day on
Wednesday, with high pressure building in across the ohio valley.
This feature should then be in control through the remainder of the
week, keeping conditions mainly dry and seasonal through the end of
the long term period.
Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
As of 620 am Friday...
widespread showers with isolated thunder this morning should
become less numerous from north to south as Friday progresses in
time. Until then, bouncing observations can be expected in and
out of showers. Ceilings and visibilities have been variable
since the last synoptic issuance of the tafs a few hours ago and
this is expected to continue for a few more hours.
Vfr later in the day for all sites. Fog potential to form in the
valleys is on the higher side tonight after 04z.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Saturday...
forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: more brief ifr is possible in heavy
showers. Isolated thunder could creep in to the mix.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Utc 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
edt 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency m l m m h h h h h h h m
hts consistency l l l l l l h h h m h h
bkw consistency l m m h h h h l h h h h
ekn consistency m m m m h m h l m m h h
pkb consistency m m m h m l m m h h h h
ckb consistency h h m m m h h h m m m h
after 12z Saturday...
ifr fog possible early Sunday morning.
Rlx watches warnings advisories
Synopsis... 26 rg
near term... 26
short term... Rg
long term... Rg
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