Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Racine, OH
July 3, 2024 1:46 AM EDT (05:46 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM Moonset 6:21 PM |
FXUS61 KRLX 022317 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 717 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi-stationary cold front expected on Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 505 PM Tuesday...
No changes necessary.
As of 106 PM Tuesday...
Quiet weather will continue the rest of today, courtesy of high pressure. Temperatures are running a bit higher than yesterday, mainly due to a more southerly component to the wind. Expect mainly clear skies overnight with diminishing winds, but patchy fog may develop in the sheltered mountain valleys.
Most of Wednesday will remain quiet with high pressure in control. A south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day with temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Ohio due to an approaching 500-mb shortwave. One or two severe storms cannot be ruled out as instability builds throughout the day. 0-6km shear will only be 20-25 kts, which could be a limiting factor. SPC has placed southeast Ohio in a marginal risk of severe weather for this timeframe. West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia should be mostly free of thunderstorms with little/no forcing and a more stable atmosphere.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 125 PM Tuesday...
Key Points:
* There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather across SE Ohio and NE Kentucky on Wednesday Night.
* There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather across the entire forecast area for Thursday into Thursday evening.
Showers move into the area Wednesday night, especially for the mid- Ohio Valley and our SE Ohio counties. There remains a bit of uncertainty on just how far southeast precip may make it by sunrise, so we only have Chance POPs southeast of the I-79 corridor. However, the entire area looks to see showers and storms Thursday and Thursday night as the front moves towards and stalls near or over the CWA SPC has assessed a Marginal risk for Wednesday night for the Ohio River and SE Ohio, with Marginal across the whole area for Thursday. The Wednesday night risk would likely mainly depend on clusters or a line with severe winds moving into the area. For Thursday, the potential for morning showers or at least cloud cover could limit instability and severe potential. As the front remains stalled near the area in zonal flow aloft, and disturbances move along it, showers and storms will remain possible across the area on Friday and Friday night.
We'll likely remain near or a bit above normal on high temps for Thursday and Friday, but that may be dependent on precip coverage and cloud cover. With the expected humidity and dewpoints, overnight lows will remain above normal, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM Tuesday...
An upper-level trough should finally break through the zonal flow Saturday and kick the front through the area. There will still be a chance for rain mostly in the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on Saturday, but that should quickly come to an end overnight as drier air works into the area. We should be dry on Sunday, and possibly Monday as well. However, don't expect much in the way of temperature relief, as it currently doesn't look to be a significant push of cooler or drier air, and high temps may at best revert towards normal.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 715 PM Tuesday...
VFR for much of the area with the exception of patchy LIFR/VLIFR valley fog in deeper mountain valleys between 09-12Z, including at KEKN.
After 12Z, VFR with light southwesterly winds. However, occasional gusts in the teens will be possible after 15Z.
After 18Z, showers and thunderstorms will move into SE Ohio and perhaps NE KY, with strong, gusty winds, and brief IFR conditions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing overnight may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 717 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi-stationary cold front expected on Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 505 PM Tuesday...
No changes necessary.
As of 106 PM Tuesday...
Quiet weather will continue the rest of today, courtesy of high pressure. Temperatures are running a bit higher than yesterday, mainly due to a more southerly component to the wind. Expect mainly clear skies overnight with diminishing winds, but patchy fog may develop in the sheltered mountain valleys.
Most of Wednesday will remain quiet with high pressure in control. A south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day with temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Ohio due to an approaching 500-mb shortwave. One or two severe storms cannot be ruled out as instability builds throughout the day. 0-6km shear will only be 20-25 kts, which could be a limiting factor. SPC has placed southeast Ohio in a marginal risk of severe weather for this timeframe. West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia should be mostly free of thunderstorms with little/no forcing and a more stable atmosphere.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 125 PM Tuesday...
Key Points:
* There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather across SE Ohio and NE Kentucky on Wednesday Night.
* There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather across the entire forecast area for Thursday into Thursday evening.
Showers move into the area Wednesday night, especially for the mid- Ohio Valley and our SE Ohio counties. There remains a bit of uncertainty on just how far southeast precip may make it by sunrise, so we only have Chance POPs southeast of the I-79 corridor. However, the entire area looks to see showers and storms Thursday and Thursday night as the front moves towards and stalls near or over the CWA SPC has assessed a Marginal risk for Wednesday night for the Ohio River and SE Ohio, with Marginal across the whole area for Thursday. The Wednesday night risk would likely mainly depend on clusters or a line with severe winds moving into the area. For Thursday, the potential for morning showers or at least cloud cover could limit instability and severe potential. As the front remains stalled near the area in zonal flow aloft, and disturbances move along it, showers and storms will remain possible across the area on Friday and Friday night.
We'll likely remain near or a bit above normal on high temps for Thursday and Friday, but that may be dependent on precip coverage and cloud cover. With the expected humidity and dewpoints, overnight lows will remain above normal, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM Tuesday...
An upper-level trough should finally break through the zonal flow Saturday and kick the front through the area. There will still be a chance for rain mostly in the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on Saturday, but that should quickly come to an end overnight as drier air works into the area. We should be dry on Sunday, and possibly Monday as well. However, don't expect much in the way of temperature relief, as it currently doesn't look to be a significant push of cooler or drier air, and high temps may at best revert towards normal.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 715 PM Tuesday...
VFR for much of the area with the exception of patchy LIFR/VLIFR valley fog in deeper mountain valleys between 09-12Z, including at KEKN.
After 12Z, VFR with light southwesterly winds. However, occasional gusts in the teens will be possible after 15Z.
After 18Z, showers and thunderstorms will move into SE Ohio and perhaps NE KY, with strong, gusty winds, and brief IFR conditions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing overnight may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for K3I2
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for K3I2
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for K3I2
Wind History graph: 3I2
(wind in knots)
Charleston, WV,
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