Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
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|Sunrise 7:12AM||Sunset 4:44PM||Sunday December 15, 2019 2:30 AM CST (08:30 UTC)||Moonrise 8:25PM||Moonset 10:20AM||Illumination 87%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wright City, MOHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLSX 150558 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1158 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019
UPDATE. Issued at 919 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019
Only some slight changes needed to the tonight portion of the forecast to account for southeastward clearing of stratus. However high and mid clouds from the Plains will spread back over the area tonight in the wake of the diminishing lower clouds. I have slightly tweaked lows down. Tonight is tranquil.
The anticipated winter storm is still on track for Sunday into Monday. The new deterministic 00Z NAM and latest RAP are still on target with snow spreading west to east across the area on Sunday, beginning in central MO from 8-10 am, far eastern MO from 10 am to noon, and across western IL during the afternoon. These deterministic model runs have also shifted the axis of heaviest snow a bit further south centered along the I-70 corridor. Impressive isentropic lift and frontogenetic forcing is expected to support a rather wide snow band with rates at times from 0.5 to 1 inch per hour. If these solutions are in fact correct with the intensity and location then are current snowfall amounts during the afternoon would need to be doubled, and closer to 4-5 inches along this axis. I hesitate making alot of changes to the forecast at this time based on 2 deterministic models when a closer evaluation of the full model suite and ensembles may not fully support this decided south shift. None the less, hazardous travel is expected on Sunday and into Sunday night. The current winter storm watch still is reasonable and will be converted overnight to a series of winter storm warnings and advisories.
It still appears that the first wave of snow will exit by Sunday evening and many areas may lose ice nuclei thus light freezing rain or drizzle would occur. Another round of snow would then impact the region on Monday/Monday evening.
SHORT TERM. (Through Late Monday Night) Issued at 337 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019
Early this afternoon, a very broad-based TROF extended over much of the CONUS with a W-SW flow aloft over our region. The strong storm system that we have been watching carefully has come onshore and was located over northern Arizona. At the surface, a cold front was to the southeast of our region with colder air spilling in on NW winds. An extensive area of clouds existed over much of the Midwest with clearing in Iowa but additional cloud cover in Kansas already sliding east towards our region that will likely limit any clearing over our way. Temperatures were in the 30s for most of the area.
Quiet weather is expected tonight as we will be in-between systems. In the meantime, colder air will settle in from a 1025mb area of high pressure, resulting in min temps early Sunday morning mainly in the lower to mid 20s. This will be key for what happens next.
The well-advertised next storm system continues to look set for Sunday through Monday night. Confidence continues to increase on the general characteristics:
(1) Two main waves of precipitation: one focused on Sunday afternoon-evening and the other one on Monday, lingering into Monday night. This longer duration into Monday night is a key change.
(2) The first wave on Sunday will primarily be in the form of snow and will be driven by frontogenesis in a weak but slowly strengthening broad WAA regime. The trend for this area seems to have settled on a region near the Interstate 70 corridor, especially for what could be focused bands of snow. If this materializes, these bands of snow will be capable of heavy bursts of snow with rates in excess of 1"/hour. The cold surfaces will allow snow to accumulate on any untreated surfaces and result in hazardous travel. This episode is expected to exit by late Sunday evening. Where it lingers the longest will be capable of several inches of snow.
(3) The interlude between the two main waves of precipitation will begin moving in from the southwest Sunday evening and continue into early Monday morning and will feature intermittent freezing drizzle or light freezing rain and a resultant ice accretion for most areas. Only where cloud ice can hang on better in far northern MO will precipitation types of snow linger.
(4) Cloud ice will be re-introduced enough with the concluding wave of precipitation after sunrise on Monday and looks to now linger into Monday night with the upper level system moving slower, but with the broad moderate WAA regime continuing. Two upper level impulses, one lead one Monday morning will bring cloud ice back into the equation for much of the area near and north of I-70, should transition the freezing drizzle back over to snow, with the main system set for Monday afternoon and evening, expanding coverage of snow at the expense of freezing drizzle into the southern portions of the forecast area (southeast MO and far southern IL). This second wave of precipitation, especially where it looks to transition back to and continue as snow looks now to intersect much of the area that will benefit most from the first wave of snow on Sunday.
(5) Adding it all up, there continues to be a threat for several inches of snow for areas near and north of I-70. Much of this area, in fact, is flirting with Warning (6") criteria and with the trends shaping up, this threat for higher snow totals is edging closer to the I-70 corridor. For this reason, we are continuing the Watch, but beginning it sooner and extending it longer in time. The southern portion of the Watch will be converted to an Advisory where lower snow totals and icing will be an issue.
LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Next Saturday) Issued at 337 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019
Medium range guidance has been very consistent in keeping the mid Mississippi Valley in cold, dry northwest flow Tuesday and into early Wednesday behind the storm. It's unlikely that temperatures will rise above freezing across northeast Missouri and west central and south central Illinois with fresh snow on the ground, however some mid and upper 30s look likely across parts of southeast Missouri. Wednesday morning continues to look like the coldest of the week due to a clear sky, light wind, and the snow cover. Lows in the low to mid teens across most of the forecast area still looks probable. Models show the low level ridge moving east of the Mississippi Valley Wednesday as the upper level ridge builds into the Great Plains. The combination of increasing southerly low level flow and rising heights will bring warmer air back to Missouri and Illinois for the latter half of the week. Areas with snow on the ground will still be chilly Wednesday with heights struggling up to near freezing, but parts of southeast and central Missouri should warm up to the low to mid 40s.
The upper level ridge axis is forecast to move east of the Mississippi River on Thursday. Low level warm advection will continue with southwest flow Thursday and Friday and highs are expected to climb above normal values for Thursday and Friday. ECMWF has trended toward the GFS which brings enough low level moisture out of the Gulf to produce some light rain across Arkansas and southern Missouri ahead of a short wave trough on Friday. There's still little if any precip indicated in our area, so have kept Friday's forecast dry for the time being. Saturday looks dry as well with the trough to our east . though it's a low confidence temperature forecast with GFS showing slightly different surface patterns with the GFS being the cooler of the two.
AVIATION. (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019
Stratus has largely cleared south of all but KCPS at 0530z. The more solid edge should clear south of KCPS within the next few hours although some patchy MVFR stratus could linger at KCOU and the KSTL/KSUS as well through 07-08z. VFR flight conditions are then expected to persist until around mid-morning Sunday. Thereafter snow will develop/spread from western MO across the region during the later part of the morning and through the afternoon. Flight conditions will deteriorate after the onset of snow eventually lowering to IFR with moderate snow possible at the St. Louis terminals and KCOU. Snow will eventually change to light freezing rain or drizzle during the evening.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Some patchy MVFR stratus will be possible through 07-08z, otherwise VFR flight conditions are then expected until late morning Sunday. Snow will develop/spread into the terminal from the west near midday, with intensity increasing during the afternoon. Flight conditions will deteriorate after the onset of snow eventually lowering to IFR during the afternoon, with moderate snow possible. Snow will eventually change to light freezing rain or drizzle during the evening.
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to midnight CST Monday night for Crawford MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
Winter Storm Watch from 9 AM CST Sunday through Monday evening for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to midnight CST Monday night for Randolph IL.
Winter Storm Watch from 9 AM CST Sunday through Monday evening for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL- Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
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|St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO||27 mi||36 min||W 4||10.00 mi||Fair||27°F||21°F||78%||1019.1 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSUS
Wind History from SUS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||W||Calm|
|2 days ago||S||S||S||S||S||S||S|
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