Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Queen Anne, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Flood Watch for the rest of tonight was cancelled. A new Flood Watch was issued for tomorrow between 5 PM and 2 AM for areas along and south of I-78.

The unsettled, active, and tropical weather pattern will continue through Wednesday due to a slow-moving front which will work its way toward the area but won't cross fully through the area until Friday.

The line of storms that impacted the region earlier this afternoon and evening will continue to push offshore into tonight. However, a few residual showers may remain around the area, especially toward the coast. Skies tonight will remain mostly cloudy, keeping temperatures to remain very mild overnight in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Wednesday will virtually be a rinse and repeat kind of day in terms of the overall forecast, except the frontal boundary will have made its way closer to the area, suppressing the overall threat of convection a bit further south. Expecting partly cloudy skies in the morning to give way to mostly cloudy skies come the afternoon. With the tropical and deep moisture airmass persisting, in addition to the nearby frontal boundary, yet another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop mid-late afternoon on Wednesday. Greatest threat will be from Philadelphia on south, where better atmospheric parameters overlap with one another, so SPC has introduced a SLIGHT risk in those areas, with a MARGINAL risk remaining elsewhere.

Similarly, WPC has kept a SLIGHT risk for excessive rainfall for most of the area on Wednesday as little change in the overall atmospheric environment is expected. Due to there being a large gap in between potential heavy rain periods tonight, will have future shifts consider another Flood Watch for Wednesday. All in all another muggy and humid day is expected. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler due to more cloud cover compared to today where heat indicies will largely remain in the 90s for the majority of the area. Looks like we'll fall short of needing any heat headlines though.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A warm and humid airmass will be over the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic for the Short Term period. Surface dew points will be in the low to mid 70s, along with highs generally in the mid 80s. This will yield heat index values in the low to mid 90s.
These high dew points will also keep low temperatures at night quite warm, and lows will generally be in the lower 70s.

Unsettled weather will remain on tap as a frontal boundary will hover over the area. Abundant low level moisture will be in place given those high dew points, and PWATs will be up to and in excess of 2 inches. Lingering showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening will be capable of locally heavy rain and flash flooding. With SB CAPE values up to 1500 J/kg and 30 to 35 kt of 0-6 km Bulk Shear, cannot rule out damaging winds from thunderstorms.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area Thursday afternoon and evening as shortwave energy approaches from the west and passes through the region. Given how warm and humid conditions will be, locally heavy rain and damaging wind gusts are possible once again. This pattern continues on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Fairly typical summertime pattern on tap for the Long Term period with warm and humid conditions. Surface dew points will generally be in the mid 70s or so from Friday night through around Sunday, and then dew points look to come down a bit for the start of the new work week, generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. It is also possible that during the peak heating of the day that dew points drop by a few degrees due to mixing. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, possibly around 90 in some spots. This will give way to max heat index values in the low to mid 90s.

A series of disturbances will pass through the region from time to time, but confidence in timing and placement is low. Will generally follow the NBM and go with 30 to 50 percent PoPs for most of this time, though the NBM is indicating 60 percent PoPs for the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and Berks county on Sunday due to a stronger system possibly approaching then.
Important to note that any showers and thunderstorms will mostly be in the afternoon and evening hours, and there are not many factors indicating precipitation would be widespread and organized at this time.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR expected with MVFR ceilings possible in any thunderstorm activity and again possibly after 06Z as some stratus develops, however confidence is low, and generally have SCT ceilings below 3000 ft to cover this potential. Showers and thunderstorms will wane into the evening hours and taper off by midnight. Southwest winds around 3-5 kt. Moderate-low confidence.

Wednesday...Primarily VFR with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Any showers and storms may cause localized areas of VSBY/CIG restrictions.
Southwest winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Overall, VFR conditions.
However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief sub-VFR conditions if a given storm passes over a terminal. Sub- VFR conditions possible at night due to fog and low clouds, but confidence low on timing and placement.

MARINE
No marine headlines are in effect through Wednesday. South- southwest winds around 10-20 kt this afternoon, diminish to around 5-10 kt tonight, before increasing again on Wednesday to around 10-15 kt. Seas of 3-4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms expected later this afternoon into this evening, where localized wind gusts in excess of 34 kt are possible. Another round of thunderstorms expected on Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions for this period. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible each day. VSBY restrictions possible from time to time, especially at night.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday, a south/southwest shore parallel wind of around 10-20 MPH and breaking waves of around 3 feet will result in a MODERATE risk for the Jersey Shore. With wind direction mainly offshore along the Delaware Beaches, a LOW Risk for rip currents is in place

For Thursday...flow turns more southerly resulting in slight onshore component for Cape May and Atlantic County, though only around 10 MPH or so. This will result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents in those locations. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet along the entire coast. More offshore or shore parallel light flow will result in a LOW risk for Ocean and Monmouth County at the Jersey Shore and for the Delaware Beaches.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch was issued for areas along and south of I-78 for Wednesday. Rainfall of around 0.5 inches to upwards of 3 to 4 inches fell across the watch area. This results in a saturated surface and low FFG values within the watch area. It will not take much to cause further flooding issues, especially in SE PA, where widespread flooding was reported today. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible with thunderstorms rolling through Wednesday Evening.



PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for NJZ009-010-012>027.
DE...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for DEZ001>004.
MD...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...None.