Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Queen Anne, MD
December 8, 2023 5:18 PM EST (22:18 UTC)
Sunrise 7:08AM Sunset 4:43PM Moonrise 2:34AM Moonset 1:56PM
ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 333 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.gale watch in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
.gale watch in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 333 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
broad high pressure will build across the southeast states through Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday into Monday. Gales are possible Sunday into Monday, as well.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
broad high pressure will build across the southeast states through Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday into Monday. Gales are possible Sunday into Monday, as well.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KPHI 082118 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 418 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
SYNOPSIS
The region will feel the influence of surface high pressure to the south through Saturday. A potent cold front approaches Saturday night and Sunday. Potent cold front crosses through Sunday night.
High pressure begins to build in Monday and holds a firm grasp over the region to the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Quiet weather for the near term. One challenge, for the overnight, will be deciding how much and how dense any fog will be. Overall, a decent setup for radiational cooling, but a dry air mass in place.
Decided to continue with the patchy fog wording for the public fcst.
Clear to partly cloudy skies otherwise with lows in the low/mid 30s most spots. Light S/SE winds.
A great weather day Saturday with mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Highs will reach the low/mid 50s for the areas N/W of the fall-line and upper 50s/low 60s for Delmarva, metro Philadelphia and srn NJ. Mostly South winds 5 to 10 mph.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Bottom Line...A potent cold front undergoing significant frontogenesis will cross through the region Sunday night. This will bring a handful of weather impacts to the region Sunday into Monday including strong winds, heavy rain, freshwater and tidal flooding concerns.
Synoptic Pattern...A potent cold front to our west will further approach Saturday night, and look to cross through during the Sunday night period. Following passage, high pressure behind the front will build in Monday as precipitation tapers off.
Saturday night...Winds are forecast to be light for many areas during the first half of the period. With continued moisture and warm air advection during this period, it is possible that fog develops across areas in the region. It is even possible that some marine fog develops early in the period before winds/gusts pick up later on. Forecaster confidence in fog development is low to moderate, so will refrain from discussing visibilities and density of fog for now. In the second half of the period, there are slight chances and chances of precipitation for area.
Sunday...By Sunday morning, the pressure gradient will begin to increase and therefore, a increase in winds and gusts will be felt across the region. Precipitation will likely arrive in our western areas in the morning and will increase in magnitude while spreading eastward with time. By the afternoon, moderate, to heavy rain at times, is expected across the region. Winds will be 15-20 mph sustained with gusts of 30-45 mph possible.
Those higher gusts of 40-45 mph will be felt closer to coastal areas.
Sunday night...Heaviest of rainfall is expected to drape eastward with time. Pressure gradient will only increase, with the entire region looking to see 20-30 mph winds with gusts up to 35-45 mph.
Monday...Lingering precipitation behind the cold front will linger some. Our more western areas (primarily Poconos and Sussex County NJ) may see some snow mixed with rain with the cold advection; otherwise, rain is expected for all other areas given the situation. Precipitation chances will taper off with time. No precipitation is expected by the afternoon. Winds and gusts will remain the same magnitude from the previous period, only in the late afternoon/evening will they begin to decrease.
Models indicate mesoscale banding and significant frontogenesis will occur with the system as well as elevated instability.
Mesoscale guidance will have be watched going forward. 2.0-3.0 inches of rain are expected with locally higher amounts possible. WPC maintains all of our region in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall with northern NJ in a SLIGHT risk for excessive rainfall (see HYDROLOGY section for more details).
Strong winds are expected Sunday through Monday as discussed.
Wind advisories for the coastal areas is a certainty; high wind watches/warnings are possible for the same areas. High winds will contribute to growing coastal flooding concerns as well as proximity of the event to the new moon on December 12th.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Latest ensemble and deterministic model guidance indicates the long term will be dominated by surface high pressure. Given almost no divergence among guidance for this situation and the overall synoptic pattern, forecaster confidence in the forecast is high.
Overall, with surface high pressure in control expect a quiet long term weather wise. Precipitation during the term is not expected; no PoPs are included in the forecast. Temperatures will likely run right around normal through the term.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...VFR expected most of the time. There is a chance for fog to develop late tonight/predawn at the terminals. Confidence is low/moderate at best with most guidance differing with respect to this. The decent amount of mostly clear skies this evening seem to favor fog formation. Put MVFR fog in attm, (could end up with IFR however). Light SE/E winds.
Saturday...VFR after any fog diminishes. High clouds expected.
South to Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots developing. Medium/high confid.
Outlook...
Saturday night...Sub-VFR with fog possible. Ceilings will develop and drop through the period. Chance of -RA. S/SE winds 5-10 knots.
Low confidence.
Sunday...Sub-VFR. RA with RA+ possible at times. S winds increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25-30 knots. Moderate confidence.
Sunday night...Sub-VFR. RA/+RA. S winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-40 knots will veer westerly after strong cold frontal passage. Moderate confidence.
Monday...Sub-VFR ceilings lingering in the morning will give way to mainly VFR conditions by the afternoon. W/NW winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-40 knots. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...VFR. W/SW winds around 10 knots. High confidence.
Wednesday...VFR. W winds around 10 knots. High confidence.
MARINE
Overall, tranquil weather tonight and Saturday. There could be some fog towards morning. sub-SCA winds and seas. Winds mostly South to Southeast around 10 knots.
Outlook...
Saturday night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Sunday...Gales with seas building up to 7-9 feet. Gale Watch is in effect.
Sunday night...Gales. Storm force winds possible. Seas 8-12 feet. Gale Watch is in effect.
Monday...Gales continue. Storm force winds possible. Seas around 10 feet will diminish with time to 7-9 feet. Gale Watch is in effect.
Tuesday...SCA criteria possible; seas may linger around 5 feet.
Wednesday...No marine headlines expected.
HYDROLOGY
After collaborating with surrounding offices, the MARFC, and WPC, we've decided to issue a Flood Watch late Sunday and through the day on Monday. Yes, we're talking about a 5th and 6th period Watch, but confidence is ramping up that the region will see rainfall between 2 and 3 inches.
Putting things into perspective, this isn't going to be Ida or an event with vast widespread impacts, but it could still be an event that causes a variety of flooding types.
Here's how we see it playing out using the current QPF. Poor drainage, urban, small stream, and even isolated flash flooding will commence later on Sunday. It's to our benefit that the ground is nowhere near frozen, but runoff still becomes more efficient this time of year when everything that grows becomes dormant. Runoff will make it to the smaller creeks and streams Sunday night and then to our rivers beginning on Monday. Portions of the mainstem Passaic might not flood until Tuesday.
The mainstem Delaware is not expected to reach Flood Stage at any forecast point. As mentioned, a point or two on the Passaic could flood on Tuesday. The mainstem Raritan is not forecast to flood at this time, although Action Stage is possible. Current simulations do not have any of the mainstem Schuylkill flooding, but with more rain modeled across PA vs. NJ, I would continue to monitor. So outside of our mainstems, we'll need to watch our forecast points across SE PA, and points N and W of the mainstem Passaic. Even places like Minisink Hills and Shoemakers could see good in-bank rises if the 3 inches of rainfall comes to fruition across the southern Poconos.
So with the possibility of poor drainage, urban, small stream, flash, river flooding, and flooding along the back bays (due to poor drainage), we decided to issue a Flood Watch for the entire HSA. We want to get the message out before everyone leaves for the day and goes home to relax a bit this weekend.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for DEZ001>004.
MD...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for ANZ430-431.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for ANZ450>455.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 418 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
SYNOPSIS
The region will feel the influence of surface high pressure to the south through Saturday. A potent cold front approaches Saturday night and Sunday. Potent cold front crosses through Sunday night.
High pressure begins to build in Monday and holds a firm grasp over the region to the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Quiet weather for the near term. One challenge, for the overnight, will be deciding how much and how dense any fog will be. Overall, a decent setup for radiational cooling, but a dry air mass in place.
Decided to continue with the patchy fog wording for the public fcst.
Clear to partly cloudy skies otherwise with lows in the low/mid 30s most spots. Light S/SE winds.
A great weather day Saturday with mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Highs will reach the low/mid 50s for the areas N/W of the fall-line and upper 50s/low 60s for Delmarva, metro Philadelphia and srn NJ. Mostly South winds 5 to 10 mph.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Bottom Line...A potent cold front undergoing significant frontogenesis will cross through the region Sunday night. This will bring a handful of weather impacts to the region Sunday into Monday including strong winds, heavy rain, freshwater and tidal flooding concerns.
Synoptic Pattern...A potent cold front to our west will further approach Saturday night, and look to cross through during the Sunday night period. Following passage, high pressure behind the front will build in Monday as precipitation tapers off.
Saturday night...Winds are forecast to be light for many areas during the first half of the period. With continued moisture and warm air advection during this period, it is possible that fog develops across areas in the region. It is even possible that some marine fog develops early in the period before winds/gusts pick up later on. Forecaster confidence in fog development is low to moderate, so will refrain from discussing visibilities and density of fog for now. In the second half of the period, there are slight chances and chances of precipitation for area.
Sunday...By Sunday morning, the pressure gradient will begin to increase and therefore, a increase in winds and gusts will be felt across the region. Precipitation will likely arrive in our western areas in the morning and will increase in magnitude while spreading eastward with time. By the afternoon, moderate, to heavy rain at times, is expected across the region. Winds will be 15-20 mph sustained with gusts of 30-45 mph possible.
Those higher gusts of 40-45 mph will be felt closer to coastal areas.
Sunday night...Heaviest of rainfall is expected to drape eastward with time. Pressure gradient will only increase, with the entire region looking to see 20-30 mph winds with gusts up to 35-45 mph.
Monday...Lingering precipitation behind the cold front will linger some. Our more western areas (primarily Poconos and Sussex County NJ) may see some snow mixed with rain with the cold advection; otherwise, rain is expected for all other areas given the situation. Precipitation chances will taper off with time. No precipitation is expected by the afternoon. Winds and gusts will remain the same magnitude from the previous period, only in the late afternoon/evening will they begin to decrease.
Models indicate mesoscale banding and significant frontogenesis will occur with the system as well as elevated instability.
Mesoscale guidance will have be watched going forward. 2.0-3.0 inches of rain are expected with locally higher amounts possible. WPC maintains all of our region in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall with northern NJ in a SLIGHT risk for excessive rainfall (see HYDROLOGY section for more details).
Strong winds are expected Sunday through Monday as discussed.
Wind advisories for the coastal areas is a certainty; high wind watches/warnings are possible for the same areas. High winds will contribute to growing coastal flooding concerns as well as proximity of the event to the new moon on December 12th.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Latest ensemble and deterministic model guidance indicates the long term will be dominated by surface high pressure. Given almost no divergence among guidance for this situation and the overall synoptic pattern, forecaster confidence in the forecast is high.
Overall, with surface high pressure in control expect a quiet long term weather wise. Precipitation during the term is not expected; no PoPs are included in the forecast. Temperatures will likely run right around normal through the term.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...VFR expected most of the time. There is a chance for fog to develop late tonight/predawn at the terminals. Confidence is low/moderate at best with most guidance differing with respect to this. The decent amount of mostly clear skies this evening seem to favor fog formation. Put MVFR fog in attm, (could end up with IFR however). Light SE/E winds.
Saturday...VFR after any fog diminishes. High clouds expected.
South to Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots developing. Medium/high confid.
Outlook...
Saturday night...Sub-VFR with fog possible. Ceilings will develop and drop through the period. Chance of -RA. S/SE winds 5-10 knots.
Low confidence.
Sunday...Sub-VFR. RA with RA+ possible at times. S winds increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25-30 knots. Moderate confidence.
Sunday night...Sub-VFR. RA/+RA. S winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-40 knots will veer westerly after strong cold frontal passage. Moderate confidence.
Monday...Sub-VFR ceilings lingering in the morning will give way to mainly VFR conditions by the afternoon. W/NW winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-40 knots. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...VFR. W/SW winds around 10 knots. High confidence.
Wednesday...VFR. W winds around 10 knots. High confidence.
MARINE
Overall, tranquil weather tonight and Saturday. There could be some fog towards morning. sub-SCA winds and seas. Winds mostly South to Southeast around 10 knots.
Outlook...
Saturday night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Sunday...Gales with seas building up to 7-9 feet. Gale Watch is in effect.
Sunday night...Gales. Storm force winds possible. Seas 8-12 feet. Gale Watch is in effect.
Monday...Gales continue. Storm force winds possible. Seas around 10 feet will diminish with time to 7-9 feet. Gale Watch is in effect.
Tuesday...SCA criteria possible; seas may linger around 5 feet.
Wednesday...No marine headlines expected.
HYDROLOGY
After collaborating with surrounding offices, the MARFC, and WPC, we've decided to issue a Flood Watch late Sunday and through the day on Monday. Yes, we're talking about a 5th and 6th period Watch, but confidence is ramping up that the region will see rainfall between 2 and 3 inches.
Putting things into perspective, this isn't going to be Ida or an event with vast widespread impacts, but it could still be an event that causes a variety of flooding types.
Here's how we see it playing out using the current QPF. Poor drainage, urban, small stream, and even isolated flash flooding will commence later on Sunday. It's to our benefit that the ground is nowhere near frozen, but runoff still becomes more efficient this time of year when everything that grows becomes dormant. Runoff will make it to the smaller creeks and streams Sunday night and then to our rivers beginning on Monday. Portions of the mainstem Passaic might not flood until Tuesday.
The mainstem Delaware is not expected to reach Flood Stage at any forecast point. As mentioned, a point or two on the Passaic could flood on Tuesday. The mainstem Raritan is not forecast to flood at this time, although Action Stage is possible. Current simulations do not have any of the mainstem Schuylkill flooding, but with more rain modeled across PA vs. NJ, I would continue to monitor. So outside of our mainstems, we'll need to watch our forecast points across SE PA, and points N and W of the mainstem Passaic. Even places like Minisink Hills and Shoemakers could see good in-bank rises if the 3 inches of rainfall comes to fruition across the southern Poconos.
So with the possibility of poor drainage, urban, small stream, flash, river flooding, and flooding along the back bays (due to poor drainage), we decided to issue a Flood Watch for the entire HSA. We want to get the message out before everyone leaves for the day and goes home to relax a bit this weekend.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for DEZ001>004.
MD...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for ANZ430-431.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for ANZ450>455.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD | 10 sm | 33 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 50°F | 39°F | 66% | 30.15 |
Wind History from ESN
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Wayman Wharf, Tuckahoe Creek, Choptank River, Maryland
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Wayman Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:34 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 03:11 AM EST 2.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 09:25 AM EST -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:23 PM EST 2.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:41 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 10:38 PM EST 0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:34 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 03:11 AM EST 2.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 09:25 AM EST -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:23 PM EST 2.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:41 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 10:38 PM EST 0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Wayman Wharf, Tuckahoe Creek, Choptank River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| -0.1 |
| 10 am |
| -0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:28 AM EST 0.39 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:35 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 03:56 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:11 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:50 PM EST 0.96 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:57 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:42 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 05:24 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:32 PM EST -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:28 AM EST 0.39 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:35 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 03:56 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:11 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:50 PM EST 0.96 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:57 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:42 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 05:24 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:32 PM EST -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| -0 |
| 5 am |
| -0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0.5 |
| 7 am |
| -0.6 |
| 8 am |
| -0.6 |
| 9 am |
| -0.4 |
| 10 am |
| -0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.3 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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