Monday, June1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Queen Anne, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:25PM Monday June 1, 2020 11:23 PM EDT (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 2:41PMMoonset 2:09AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1036 Pm Edt Mon Jun 1 2020
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Pm Edt Mon Jun 1 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore tonight. A warm front will advance across the waters late Tuesday into Tuesday night. A cold front will then approach the waters from the north Wednesday night and Thursday, stalling nearby through Friday. A second cold front will then sweep across the waters over the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for a portion of the waters Tuesday night and again on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Queen Anne, MD
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location: 38.92, -75.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 020134 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 934 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will settle off of the Carolina coast later tonight, then a warm front lifts north through the region later Tuesday. A cold front will approach by late Wednesday as low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes. That cold front will stall over the region through the end of the week. Another cold front will then approach Friday or Saturday as another area of low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes. High pressure should finally start to build back in from the west by later in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 930 PM, some mid level clouds continue mainly across the northern areas within the northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, some cirrus is working in from the west well in advance of a warm front and associated low-level warm air advection. The presence of strong mid to upper level jets is helping to pull the cirrus into our area on the northeast edge of a ridge. A short wave riding the periphery of the ridge is located in the upper Great Lakes this evening and this feature is forecast to drop southeastward toward our area nearing daybreak. Some showers should occur with it to our west, however given the dry air in place over our area in the lower levels it is less certain if any of those showers survive this far east. Otherwise, clouds are expected to be on the increase and thicken at least some through the night. The winds have settled now and temperatures will drop quicker in the more rural areas before stabilizing as more clouds arrive. Just made some tweaks again to the hourly grids to keep them current.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. A weak trough will develop near or over portions of the region on Tuesday. Models indicate that some showers may develop along the boundary as some mid level energy rotates through. While confidence is not high that we will see much in the way of showers, will continue to mention some rain in the forecast with better chances as we head towards the evening when the trough starts to push to the east.

Skies will become cloudy by early morning and ceilings will lower some through the day. Winds will be out of the west to southwest around 10 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts possible through the afternoon.

With a west to southwest flow at the surface and up through the lower levels of the atmosphere, we should see some warming take place. 850mb temps will continue to rise through the day and surface temps should respond in kind. Expect highs to reach into the low to mid 70s through much of the region with some 60s across our northern and western most areas. If only we didn't have building cloud cover, temperatures would be able to build into the low to mid 80s. We will just have to wait another day before things really start to heat up .

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Overview .

Active weather likely for the mid and late week period as multiple disturbances impact the mid-Atlantic. Initially, large scale ridging over the central US will begin to break down in favor of more zonal flow over the East. Multiple shortwave disturbances will track along the northeast flank of the weakening ridge, with accompanying surface lows. These "ridge riders" will bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms during the mid and late week period. By the weekend, high amplitude ridging will likely develop over the center of the country with troughing on either side of it, over both the Northeast and the Northwest. The ridge positioning should favor surface high pressure building into our region, bringing with it a cooling and drying trend towards the weekend and early next week. Main concerns for this period will revolve around potential for severe convection, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.

Dailies .

Tuesday night . Could be an unsettled night with a warm front draped to our north and a surge of elevated instability moving in by later in the night. The first of multiple shortwaves riding along the ridge's edge also tracks just to our north overnight. This combination should bring a risk of showers or even a couple of thunderstorms overnight. Best rain chances will be closest to the warm front, which right now looks to be over the northern half of the area, but some risk exists everywhere.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . Ridging over the center of the country will flatten out considerably on Wednesday. Meanwhile, another shortwave disturbance gets caught up in the fast west-northwest flow around the eastern flank of the decaying ridge. At the surface, the warm front will remain over or just north of the region as a wave of low pressure dives southeast out of the Great Lakes, with a cold front trailing behind it. Conceptually, this is a classic Northeast US severe weather setup. Strong mid level flow (50 to 60 kt at 500mb) and indications for a remnant EML to be advected into the region are major positives for severe weather. Guidance indicates highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday, which should allow plenty of instability to build especially as moisture also increases. In terms of failure mechanisms, the main thing to watch would be a potential round of morning convection from upstream which could stabilize the atmosphere if it does not push away in time. There is also a chance that the next shortwave may come in too slowly to take advantage of peak heating. So while this event has a fairly high ceiling potential if all comes together right, for now we are in more of a watch and wait period. SPC Day 3 Outlook has western portions of the area in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk further east, and given confidence levels at this stage that seems a reasonable starting point.

Thursday-Saturday . Mid and upper level flow turns fairly zonal over the region during this period. For Thursday, sensible weather will be impacted by how far south the cold front makes it on Wednesday night. If it fails to clear the region, which seems probable, then another round of convection would be expected, especially in southern areas. A lower, though non-zero, severe risk on Thursday as shear decreases. May be more of a locally heavy rain concern, but plenty of time to watch that. Another warm to hot day likely even north of the front, which will be starting to decay.

By Friday, additional uncertainty arises as another shortwave moves into the Great Lakes. By then, a deepening trough over the West will be aiding in downstream ridge development over the central US. This in turn will favor a deepening of this next shortwave as it approaches our region. Another area of low pressure will pass through southern Canada and send another cold front towards the region by Saturday. Meanwhile, the cold front from the midweek period may still be lingering over our area on Friday, although it will have largely washed out by then. Still, with multiple boundaries in play, this is a recipe for continued unsettled weather. Plenty of spread in the guidance, and confidence is low on when the rain chances will be best. Have mainly chance PoPs on both days; most indications are Friday will have the better opportunity, and if the trailing front is fast enough Saturday may stay mainly dry as seemed to be the general trend in the 01.12z guidance. But this will all be largely dependent on timing. The overall dynamics are not as impressive as they are during the midweek period, so am not too concerned about severe weather late week, more likely just ordinary convection. Warm conditions continue Friday and Saturday.

Sunday-Monday . Regardless of what happens late this week, the pattern is supportive of drier weather for this period. Upper level troughing moves overhead Sunday then shifts east Monday, while surface high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. Should be a quiet and pleasant couple of days with low humidity and temperatures near or a bit below average.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight . VFR. Southwesterly winds around 5 knots, becoming light and variable at several terminals. Increasing high level clouds. High confidence.

Tuesday . VFR ceilings. West to southwest winds around 10 knots with some afternoon gusts 15-20 knots. A few showers possible. Low confidence with timing and coverage of any showers.

Outlook . Tuesday night . Sub-VFR possible especially north of PHL due to low clouds and showers. Light southwest flow. Low confidence on extent of sub-VFR conditions.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . Prevailing VFR conditions expected, however scattered showers and thunderstorms with localized restrictions will be possible. Some storms may be strong to severe. Westerly wind around 10 to 15 kt becoming light northwest overnight. Moderate confidence.

Thursday-Thursday night . Prevailing VFR, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mainly in the afternoon and overnight and mainly south of PHL. Light northwest winds becoming light southwest in the afternoon then light and variable overnight. Moderate confidence.

Friday-Saturday . Mainly VFR, but additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible especially Friday. Light southwest winds Friday becoming light northwest on Saturday. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions expected through Tuesday. West to southwest winds mainly 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Outlook . Tuesday night-Friday . Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Several chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected.

Rip Currents . A low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents continues through Wednesday, as winds turn more southerly and with waves in the surf zone only about 2 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Gorse Short Term . Meola Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Gorse/Meola/O'Brien Marine . Gorse/Meola/O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 24 mi54 min 68°F 52°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi54 min SSW 7 G 8.9 63°F 71°F1022.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 26 mi84 min SSW 12 G 12 67°F 67°F1022.6 hPa (+0.6)46°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi60 min SSW 8 G 11 67°F 71°F1021.6 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 27 mi36 min 64°F 68°F1 ft1021.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 28 mi54 min 1021.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 35 mi30 min SW 12 G 14 65°F 946.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi54 min SW 8.9 G 12 66°F 1021.4 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi66 min SW 8 G 16 68°F 1021.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 40 mi54 min SW 14 G 17 65°F 1021.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 41 mi114 min SSW 4.1 1021 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi54 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 67°F 66°F1021.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 43 mi54 min W 2.9 G 2.9 63°F 71°F1021.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi54 min SSW 12 G 15 1022.9 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 45 mi60 min WSW 20 G 22 1021.5 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi54 min WSW 9.9 G 12 64°F 62°F1021.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 48 mi54 min 62°F 69°F1020.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 49 mi54 min SSW 12 G 14 64°F 69°F1022.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi54 min SW 15 G 18 66°F 72°F1022.4 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi99 minS 710.00 miClear63°F48°F60%1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------CalmCalmN6N6N4N5W7W9W8NW8
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2 days ago--------------SW3W3NW5NW5NW6W6NW8NW8NW10N6NW6N7NW4NW4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Wayman Wharf, Tuckahoe Creek, Choptank River, Maryland
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Wayman Wharf
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:13 AM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:21 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.22.93.43.73.63.22.621.51.21.11.31.82.42.83.132.62.11.510.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT     0.93 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:24 AM EDT     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:18 PM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.80.90.80.50.2-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.40.50.50.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.