Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Queen Anne, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:34PM Monday June 21, 2021 4:05 AM EDT (08:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 2:02AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 136 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Overnight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will approach from the ohio river valley late today, then cross the region Tuesday. High pressure will build over the waters for the middle portion of the week. May be needed for portions of the waters Monday evening and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Queen Anne, MD
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location: 38.92, -75.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 210802 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 402 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain overhead today while Tropical Depression Claudette moves offshore and restrengthens into a Tropical Storm. A cold front will pass across the region Tuesday, followed by quiet weather as high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the work week. An area of low pressure will cross the Great Lakes and drag a cold front closer to our forecast area into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Upper troughing currently digging into the Great Lakes region will result in an unsettled start to the work week. Tropical Storm/Depression Claudette will pass south of the area today off the North Carolina coast and move out to sea. Some hi-res guidance suggests we may see a few showers associated with Claudette reaching our southern-most marine zones and southern Delaware, otherwise no direct impacts from Claudette are expected. Meanwhile, the southerly return flow will prevail in the low levels through the day and really until the arrive of a cold front from the west overnight tonight. The low level warm advection is expected to result in some low stratus developing through the pre-dawn hours, but this should mix out fairly quickly after daybreak as surface heating begins and surface winds increase.

The main story of today will the the potential for severe thunderstorms developing across portions of eastern Pennsylvania. The latest CAM guidance suggests that at least isolated if not scattered convection will develop late this afternoon or evening across the I-81 corridor and move northeast into the western portions of the forecast area. Mid-level heights will begin falling this afternoon ahead of the approaching trough and cold front. This and some incoming vorticity maxima will arrive in the southwesterly flow aloft to help forcing the convection. The convective parameter space will be favorable for severe convection with MLCAPE in the 2000 J/kg neighborhood, but deep layer effective shear is only around 20 kts. Thinking the forcing and relatively higher instability values should make up for the less than impressive shear though. DCAPE is also quite robust around 700-1000 J/kg. Lapse rates of 6-6.5 C/km leads me to believe that damaging winds will be the greatest threat with any of the more robust multicells that are able to organize. Low level shear isn't bad though with effective SRH of 100-150, so perhaps a few semi-discrete cells are possible.

I think convection will struggle to initiate and/or die out east of I-95 with the incoming marine layer/sea breeze keeping much of southern/coastal New Jersey stable into the afternoon and evening. Timing looks to be generally after 5 PM and should generally wind down into the late evening dissipating by around midnight or so. SPC has expanded the Slight Risk into our western-most Pennsylvania forecast zones with the Marginal Risk generally encompassing the I- 95 corridor and Delmarva.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy throughout the day, really depending on how much high clouds we get from Claudette. Expecting high temperatures near 90 degrees for much of the area away from the coasts with dewpoints in the low 70s. This will result in maximum Heat Indicies in the mid 90s for much of the forecast area.

Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight as the cold front approaches and slides through the region. It looks to clear most of our area during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the main mid- level jet maxima will be slowly pivoting just north of the area placing us in the right entrance region. This is forecast to result in more rain showers with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms developing during the morning hours in the wake of the front. This activity will push slowing through the region from northwest to southeast resulting in a gloomy and rainy Tuesday. Winds in the wake of the front will shift northwesterly and increase to around 10-15 mph. Temperatures will start generally in the 70s in the morning but fall slowly into the 60s by the late afternoon. Clouds will clear into the evening.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A very quiet and seasonably cool day Wednesday in the wake of the cold fropa as surface high pressure builds overhead. This will allow for cooler and drier air to filter into the region from the north and west, which will provide some very pleasant weather for early summer standards. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Claudette will continue to move off to the northeast further out to sea. A few lingering showers leftover behind the front that passes through the region Tuesday will quickly move offshore by sunrise, and skies will continue to clear through the morning. A weak shortwave will pivot through the longer wave trough across the Northeast, which will likely enhance cloud cover a tough through the late afternoon, but otherwise a partly to mostly sunny day is in store. Highs will top out in the upper 70s, roughly five to ten degrees below average for this time of year. with relative humidity values in the 30 and 40 percent range, this will feel quite pleasant.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A weak wave of low pressure forms along the stalled trough to our south across the Carolinas, which tries to play difficult and nudge its way northward late Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, a series of shortwave troughs will gradually amplify a long wave trough across the Midwest into the early weekend. As the last and strongest of these merges with the wave envelope, a surface low will deepen as it ejects from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. In its wake, a cold front will work eastward, but fizzles as it nears the coast as it encounters the strong surface ridge over the western Atlantic. This is the most significant change since Sunday's forecast as an additional shortwave deepens the main trough over the Midwest early next week. We may very well just encounter a period of quiet weather but also nuisance cloud cover and scattered showers with the weak southeasterly onshore flow thanks to the front not fully clearing the region. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s through the weekend.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today . MVFR to perhaps locally IFR ceilings are forecast to develop across most terminals through around 10Z. These ceiling restrictions should last through around 14Z or so before mixing out giving way to prevailing VFR ceilings through the remainder of the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop after 21Z near and north of I-95, but details on timing and coverage is low. Southerly winds around 10-12 kts, with some gusts near 20 kts possible at RDG and ABE after 18Z. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight . Prevailing VFR with increasing coverage and lowering of ceilings. Ceilings may drop to near MVFR after 06Z. Southwesterly winds around 5-10 kts shifting northwesterly after 06Z. High confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday . MVFR ceilings expected with light to moderate rain showers through much of the day. Ceilings and rain should begin to clear by and especially after the 18-21Z timeframe. Moderate confidence overall.

Wednesday . VFR with north-northwest winds from 10 to 15 knots. High confidence.

Thursday . Mostly VFR with east-southeasterly winds from 5 to 10 knots and gusts to 15 knots. Moderate confidence.

Friday . Sub-VFR conditions possible in the morning, lifting to VFR through the day. Southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE.

Seas near 5 feet will continue through the pre-dawn hours, otherwise sub-advisory conditions are expected through tonight. Expect southerly winds around 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts at times and seas 3-4 feet. Winds will shift west then northwest overnight.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Sub-advisory conditions expected, but northwesterly winds 15-20 kts may briefly gust near 25 kts at times. Seas 3-4 feet.

Wednesday and Thursday . Sub-advisory conditions with easterly winds from 10 to 15 knots. Seas generally from 2 to 4 feet Wednesday and 2 to 3 feet Thursday.

Friday . Sub-advisory conditions with southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots and a few gusts possibly approaching 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas ranging from 2 to 3 feet.

Rip Currents .

Increased southerly winds and waves of 4 to 5 feet, coupled with an underlying long period swell (related to Claudette) will result in a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents on Monday. Although the long period swell is not expected to become the dominant swell, and winds should shift to an off shore northwesterly direction, the moderate risk may continue into Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ453>455.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . Staarmann Short Term . Davis Long Term . Davis Aviation . Davis/Staarmann Marine . Davis/Staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 24 mi47 min 75°F 74°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi47 min S 5.1 G 8.9 76°F 78°F1007.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi47 min S 6 G 8.9 75°F 77°F1007.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 26 mi65 min SSE 13 G 14 75°F 74°F1008.3 hPa (-1.3)75°F
44063 - Annapolis 27 mi41 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 75°F1 ft1008.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 28 mi47 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 78°F1007.1 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 30 mi95 min S 4.1 72°F 1008 hPa72°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 35 mi41 min SSW 12 G 14 73°F 76°F1008.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi47 min SSW 8 G 8.9 75°F 1007.1 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi47 min SSW 7 G 8.9 75°F 1007.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 40 mi47 min 74°F 74°F1008.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi47 min SSW 1 G 2.9 75°F 76°F1006.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 41 mi95 min WSW 2.9 70°F 1007 hPa69°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 43 mi47 min SSE 1 G 1.9 73°F 78°F1007.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi47 min SSE 8.9 G 11 74°F 1007.7 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 45 mi53 min S 11 G 12 1008.4 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi47 min SSW 5.1 G 11 75°F 69°F1008.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 48 mi47 min 72°F 77°F1007 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi47 min SSW 13 G 15 77°F 79°F1007.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 49 mi47 min SW 12 G 15 75°F 76°F1007.7 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi2.2 hrsN 010.00 miFair76°F75°F96%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5CalmN3CalmCalmCalmSW4CalmS7SW6SW5SW8S8S6S8S12--S10S8
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1 day agoS8S7CalmCalmCalmS8SW5SW4CalmCalmSW4W5SW7SW9W7N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW5S4S10S8SW9SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Wayman Wharf, Tuckahoe Creek, Choptank River, Maryland
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Wayman Wharf
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:06 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:01 PM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:01 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:44 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.82.73.54.14.34.23.73.12.41.81.41.21.31.72.12.52.72.521.40.80.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:37 AM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:27 AM EDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:19 PM EDT     0.37 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:47 PM EDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.91.11.10.90.60.1-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-00.20.40.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.2

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