Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Queen Anne, MD
May 11, 2024 8:31 AM EDT (12:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 7:25 AM Moonset 11:25 PM |
ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 735 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Today - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night - S winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
Wed - N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers after midnight.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 735 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a low pressure system will pass to the north late today into Sunday. High pressure will move overhead Sunday night and Monday before the next low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Monday afternoon through Wednesday night.
a low pressure system will pass to the north late today into Sunday. High pressure will move overhead Sunday night and Monday before the next low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Monday afternoon through Wednesday night.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 111046 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 646 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure arrives today before another low moves through this evening into tomorrow. High pressure builds south of the Mid- Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another area of low pressure brings more unsettled weather by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure that brought us the unsettled weather yesterday continues to pull away from the area early this morning as it moves into the northwest Atlantic. In its wake, just some low to mid-level cloudiness lingers across the area as dry air sinks in from the north. Current infrared satellite imagery depicts this well as skies have cleared across much of the southern Hudson Valley region and is now indicating some dense valley fog across northern New Jersey spreading into portions of northeast PA where skies have cleared.
With dry air steadily making its way into the area, most locales should see mostly sunny skies by daybreak, except for areas where fog develops. Lows this morning will generally be in the 40s, locally colder.
Any morning fog should burn off by late morning. This will give way to an overall pleasant day across the area as a brief surface high slides across the Mid-Atlantic. Thus, skies should relatively be mostly sunny for the first half of the day, before an increase in clouds this afternoon is expected as the next disturbance approaches the area tonight. High temps should recover nicely into the low to mid 60s this afternoon for most, with temps only reaching into the mid to upper 50s across the Poconos and along the coast as onshore flow develops late in the afternoon.
For tonight, some shower activity will begin to work its way into the area after sunset from west to east as surface low exits the Great Lakes region. The low will be accompanied by a cold front, however the overall strength of the system will be weakening as it nears. Widespread rain showers are anticipated with higher PoPs over western areas where better forcing will be present. Have kept the slight chance of thunder mentioned in the forecast tonight as a narrow axis of MUCAPE (~500 J/kg) is present in forecast soundings across SE PA and into the Delmarva. Overall, no severe weather is expected as instability will be elevated in nature. Rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch is expected. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Strong PVA will be moving over the region as a mid level trough digs in through the Great Lakes on Sunday. With weak warm air advection and sufficient lift provided by PVA expect a wet Sunday. Modest amounts of instability will be possible but the strong shear is displaced to the south with 40+ kts of 0-6km shear forecast over southern VA with just 20-30kts over the forecast area. Lapse rates are decently strong (>7 over the northern portions of the forecast area) so if a storm does develop it will likely take on pulse characteristics with little moment. With temps still below normal and the warm air advection fairly weak it will be another dreary day across the region with periods of rain and temperatures in the upper 50s/low 60s for Mother's Day.
By Sunday evening, the trough starts to clear and the area should begin to dry out as ridging builds in from the west. Expecting a spread of 40s for overnight lows to close out the weekend.
A nice start to the week is expected with a broad area of high pressure working in. Temperatures moderate back to near-normal levels for mid-May, with low to mid 70s expected for most. The exception being the southern Poconos and along the coast, where highs will stay in the 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing clouds at times
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The work week looks to continue to be somewhat active with a couple of systems moving through during the week. Temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for early to mid May.
Ensemble guidance points to rainfall but continues to suggest that forcing is not currently lining up to lead to much in the way of any severe weather for the week ahead.
The first system to bring showers and thunderstorms should move through on Tuesday but again the best shear and instability don't overlap so while there is a medium to high chance (60-70%) of showers and embedded thunderstorms, we are not anticipating any severe weather. The wet weather is expected to linger through the day on Wednesday before a ridge builds in for Thursday bringing dry sensible weather. Towards the end of the week or perhaps the weekend, the next system starts moving towards the region and will have the potential to bring another round of showers with embedded thunderstorms.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR expected today. BKN-OVC CIGs early this morning are forecast to scatter out by 12Z, except at KRDG/KABE where skies may remain BKN. Patchy fog is also possible at KRDG/KABE this morning, but confidence in occurrence is low. Otherwise, light northerly winds this morning will veer and become E-SE this afternoon around 7- 12 kt. Moderate confidence overall.
Tonight...VFR early, likely becoming sub-VFR as rain showers move into the area. CIGs are expected to fall to MVFR at KRDG/KABE by 03Z and the remainder of the terminals after 06Z. Localized visibility restrictions may become possible. Southeast winds around 5-10 kt.
Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Sunday and Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings and reduced visibility with periods of rain moving through with a 10% chance of embedded thunderstorms.
Monday through Monday Night..VFR. No significant weather.
Tuesday...VFR to start but sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%)
later in the day as showers move in.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions expected with showers. Chance of thunderstorms (15-25%) Tuesday night into Wednesday.
MARINE
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island until 6 PM today due to seas remaining above 5 feet.
Elsewhere, seas will remain below SCA criteria. Northeast winds around 15-20 kt this morning will diminish and become east-southeast winds around 10-15 kt this afternoon. Southeast winds then continue into tonight around 10-15 kt. Fair weather expected through this afternoon before rain showers approach this evening.
Outlook...
Saturday Night through Monday...No marine headlines expected.
Monday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Seas will get near 5 feet on Wednesday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Minor coastal flooding is forecast for the overnight high tide again Saturday evening however the flood waters should be on the order of about a half of a foot lower. Coastal Flood Advisories have not been issued yet because the surge was lower than forecast for last nights high tide and I would like to see how guidance performs during this afternoon's high tide before making the decision on where spotty minor vs minor flooding has the highest chance. For the Chesapeake, flooding is not expected at this time for our Maryland zones.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070- 071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NJZ020- 026.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for DEZ003- 004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ451>455.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 646 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure arrives today before another low moves through this evening into tomorrow. High pressure builds south of the Mid- Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another area of low pressure brings more unsettled weather by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure that brought us the unsettled weather yesterday continues to pull away from the area early this morning as it moves into the northwest Atlantic. In its wake, just some low to mid-level cloudiness lingers across the area as dry air sinks in from the north. Current infrared satellite imagery depicts this well as skies have cleared across much of the southern Hudson Valley region and is now indicating some dense valley fog across northern New Jersey spreading into portions of northeast PA where skies have cleared.
With dry air steadily making its way into the area, most locales should see mostly sunny skies by daybreak, except for areas where fog develops. Lows this morning will generally be in the 40s, locally colder.
Any morning fog should burn off by late morning. This will give way to an overall pleasant day across the area as a brief surface high slides across the Mid-Atlantic. Thus, skies should relatively be mostly sunny for the first half of the day, before an increase in clouds this afternoon is expected as the next disturbance approaches the area tonight. High temps should recover nicely into the low to mid 60s this afternoon for most, with temps only reaching into the mid to upper 50s across the Poconos and along the coast as onshore flow develops late in the afternoon.
For tonight, some shower activity will begin to work its way into the area after sunset from west to east as surface low exits the Great Lakes region. The low will be accompanied by a cold front, however the overall strength of the system will be weakening as it nears. Widespread rain showers are anticipated with higher PoPs over western areas where better forcing will be present. Have kept the slight chance of thunder mentioned in the forecast tonight as a narrow axis of MUCAPE (~500 J/kg) is present in forecast soundings across SE PA and into the Delmarva. Overall, no severe weather is expected as instability will be elevated in nature. Rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch is expected. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Strong PVA will be moving over the region as a mid level trough digs in through the Great Lakes on Sunday. With weak warm air advection and sufficient lift provided by PVA expect a wet Sunday. Modest amounts of instability will be possible but the strong shear is displaced to the south with 40+ kts of 0-6km shear forecast over southern VA with just 20-30kts over the forecast area. Lapse rates are decently strong (>7 over the northern portions of the forecast area) so if a storm does develop it will likely take on pulse characteristics with little moment. With temps still below normal and the warm air advection fairly weak it will be another dreary day across the region with periods of rain and temperatures in the upper 50s/low 60s for Mother's Day.
By Sunday evening, the trough starts to clear and the area should begin to dry out as ridging builds in from the west. Expecting a spread of 40s for overnight lows to close out the weekend.
A nice start to the week is expected with a broad area of high pressure working in. Temperatures moderate back to near-normal levels for mid-May, with low to mid 70s expected for most. The exception being the southern Poconos and along the coast, where highs will stay in the 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing clouds at times
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The work week looks to continue to be somewhat active with a couple of systems moving through during the week. Temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for early to mid May.
Ensemble guidance points to rainfall but continues to suggest that forcing is not currently lining up to lead to much in the way of any severe weather for the week ahead.
The first system to bring showers and thunderstorms should move through on Tuesday but again the best shear and instability don't overlap so while there is a medium to high chance (60-70%) of showers and embedded thunderstorms, we are not anticipating any severe weather. The wet weather is expected to linger through the day on Wednesday before a ridge builds in for Thursday bringing dry sensible weather. Towards the end of the week or perhaps the weekend, the next system starts moving towards the region and will have the potential to bring another round of showers with embedded thunderstorms.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR expected today. BKN-OVC CIGs early this morning are forecast to scatter out by 12Z, except at KRDG/KABE where skies may remain BKN. Patchy fog is also possible at KRDG/KABE this morning, but confidence in occurrence is low. Otherwise, light northerly winds this morning will veer and become E-SE this afternoon around 7- 12 kt. Moderate confidence overall.
Tonight...VFR early, likely becoming sub-VFR as rain showers move into the area. CIGs are expected to fall to MVFR at KRDG/KABE by 03Z and the remainder of the terminals after 06Z. Localized visibility restrictions may become possible. Southeast winds around 5-10 kt.
Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Sunday and Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings and reduced visibility with periods of rain moving through with a 10% chance of embedded thunderstorms.
Monday through Monday Night..VFR. No significant weather.
Tuesday...VFR to start but sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%)
later in the day as showers move in.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions expected with showers. Chance of thunderstorms (15-25%) Tuesday night into Wednesday.
MARINE
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island until 6 PM today due to seas remaining above 5 feet.
Elsewhere, seas will remain below SCA criteria. Northeast winds around 15-20 kt this morning will diminish and become east-southeast winds around 10-15 kt this afternoon. Southeast winds then continue into tonight around 10-15 kt. Fair weather expected through this afternoon before rain showers approach this evening.
Outlook...
Saturday Night through Monday...No marine headlines expected.
Monday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Seas will get near 5 feet on Wednesday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Minor coastal flooding is forecast for the overnight high tide again Saturday evening however the flood waters should be on the order of about a half of a foot lower. Coastal Flood Advisories have not been issued yet because the surge was lower than forecast for last nights high tide and I would like to see how guidance performs during this afternoon's high tide before making the decision on where spotty minor vs minor flooding has the highest chance. For the Chesapeake, flooding is not expected at this time for our Maryland zones.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070- 071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NJZ020- 026.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for DEZ003- 004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ451>455.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD | 10 sm | 41 min | N 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 46°F | 82% | 29.87 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Hillsboro, Tuckahoe Creek, Maryland, Tide feet
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:39 AM EDT -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:12 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM EDT 1.19 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:26 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 11:33 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:56 PM EDT -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:47 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:11 PM EDT 0.49 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:49 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:39 AM EDT -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:12 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM EDT 1.19 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:26 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 11:33 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:56 PM EDT -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:47 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:11 PM EDT 0.49 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:49 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.4 |
| 1 am |
| -0.5 |
| 2 am |
| -0.6 |
| 3 am |
| -0.4 |
| 4 am |
| -0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| -1 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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