Wednesday, November13, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brookmont, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:58PM Wednesday November 13, 2019 5:32 AM EST (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 5:59PMMoonset 7:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 440 Am Est Wed Nov 13 2019
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 440 Am Est Wed Nov 13 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Arctic high pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving offshore Thursday. A weak cold front will pass through Thursday night and high pressure will build toward the waters from the north Friday. Coastal low pressure may impact the waters during the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday into the weekend. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters overnight Friday and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brookmont, MD
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location: 38.92, -77.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 130930 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
430 am est Wed nov 13 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will remain overhead through tonight
before shifting offshore Thursday. A weak cold front will pass
through Thursday night and high pressure will return for Friday.

Coastal low pressure will intensify off the southeast coast
Saturday before moving northeast off the mid-atlantic coast
Sunday. High pressure will build over new england during this
time. Another low may impact the area early next week.

Near term through tonight
Arctic high pressure over the ohio valley early this morning
will build overhead today. A northwest flow will continue, but
winds will be much lighter compared to Tuesday. With the arctic
high overhead, more bitterly cold conditions are expected for
this time of year, despite sunshine.

Max temps will range from the 20s in the mountains to the mid
and upper 30s for most other locations. There will be some high
clouds today, especially later this morning and afternoon well
ahead of an upper-level disturbance over the central conus.

However, the cloud deck should be thin allowing for partly to
mostly sunny skies.

The high will begin to shift eastward the mid-atlantic coast
tonight. A return flow will develop, but the flow should be
light and latest thinking is that most areas will decouple. With
only very thin high clouds in place, this provides a good setup
for radiational cooling. Therefore, the latest forecast leans
toward the colder guidance for rural areas and valleys. Min
temps are forecast to range from the teens in many locations to
the upper 20s near 30 in downtown washington and baltimore as
well as near the bay potomac river.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
High pressure will shift offshore for Thursday and a return flow
will strengthen a little. This will allow for milder conditions,
despite a cold start. There will be some high clouds around, but
again the deck should be thin enough for partly to mostly sunny
skies.

A very weak boundary will move through the area Thursday night
with little impact on the weather. However, northern and
southern stream energy will begin to phase in a split flow
over the gulf coast states Thursday night, leading to the
development of low pressure over the southeastern conus. At the
same time, high pressure will be building toward our area from
the ohio valley. Latest guidance suggests that the high should
bring dry and chilly conditions to much of the area. However,
jet energy well ahead of the low will lead to more clouds and
perhaps even some rain across southeastern areas (va piedmont
and southern md most likely). Across these areas, temperatures
should be warm enough for the p-type to be rain. However, if the
precipitation develops farther northwest than currently
expected... There may be just enough shallow cold air for
freezing rain. As of now, this is not expected but it will have
to be monitored.

The jet energy should depart Friday while low pressure cuts off
from the jetstream over the southeastern conus. At the same
time, high pressure will be building toward new england. The
ridge axis from this high should build south into our area,
bringing dry and seasonable conditions Friday and Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Somewhat active long term period on tap for the area with multiple
shortwaves passing overhead, inducing a few surface lows off the
east coast.

Saturday looks mainly dry but windy and cold as a cutoff upper
low and attendant surface low move away from the carolina
coast and into the western atlantic. Gusty northerly winds are
likely (perhaps as high as 30 to 40 mph near east of the blue
ridge where the pressure gradient is strongest). These winds
combined with high temperatures struggling to reach 40 degrees
will make it feel below freezing most of the day.

This low will lift slowly northeastward out at sea through Sunday,
likely staying far enough offshore to keep heavier precipitation
east of the delmarva, though some spotty light precipitation is
possible as far west as the metro areas (per prob >= 0.01" from 00z
ecens). Chances for precipitation increase early next week,
first as a lead shortwave pivots over the area late Sunday
night into Monday, then later Monday through Tuesday as an
amplifying northern stream trough digs southeastward, catching
whatever vorticity shortwave energy is left near the
southeastern u.S. Models have been trending more amplified with
this trough, which makes sense giving the unseasonably strong
blocking surface high downstream over northern new england and
the canadian maritimes. This system will have to be monitored
for the potential of more significant precipitation, with at
least higher elevation snows possible in what currently appears
to be a marginal thermodynamic environment (in terms of winter
ptype). Overall, temperatures should be on a gradual warming
trend through early next week, but the question is how quick,
especially for the mountainous areas and perhaps near the pa
border.

Any storm system that develops should be lifting northeastward away
from the region on Wednesday, and subsequently taper pops downward
during this time (though non-zero given timing uncertainties this
far in advance).

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions are expected through Friday night. Northwest
winds gusting around 15 knots through midday will diminish later
this afternoon. A southerly flow is expected Thursday with gusts
around 15 knots in the afternoon. Light north to northwest winds
are expected Friday.

MainlyVFR Sat with gusty N winds 25-30+ kts possible. N or ne
flow remains Sun and still gusty (though perhaps not quite as
strong). Precip chances gradually increase by Sun night but may
ultimately remain dry through the weekend.

Marine
High pressure will build overhead through tonight, causing winds
to gradually diminish. An SCA remains in effect portions of the
waters through this morning. Winds should drop below SCA levels
this afternoon and tonight.

High pressure will move offshore Thursday and a southerly flow
will develop. Winds should remain below SCA criteria, but it
will be close for a period Thursday afternoon.

Low pressure will intensify near the southeast coast Friday
through Friday night. An SCA will likely be needed for portions
of the waters during this time. A gale warning may also be
needed for portions of the waters late Friday night.

Strong northerly flow near gale force is expected Saturday, only
gradually subsiding through Sunday as low pressure over the
western atlantic fights its way northeastward toward strong
high pressure over northern new england and the canadian
maritimes.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong offshore flow has resulted in below normal tides, with
near blowout from near baltimore inner harbor northward on the
chesapeake bay. Winds will become lighter today with tide
levels rising.

Climate
The arctic airmass has moved into the region. Here are the
current record lows and record cold highs.

Site low 11 13 high 11 13 low 11 14
dca 22 1911 31 1911 19 1920
bwi 22 1911 32 1911 18 1986
iad 21 1963 38 1996 13 1986

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon est today for anz531>534-
537>543.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz530-536.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl
short term... Bjl
long term... Dhof
aviation... Bjl dhof
marine... Bjl dhof
tides coastal flooding... Dhof
climate... Rcm bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 5 mi63 min NNW 7 G 12 28°F 51°F1028.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 23 mi123 min NW 2.9 27°F 1026 hPa13°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 33 mi63 min 29°F 1027.1 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi39 min N 14 G 16 28°F 53°F1027.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi33 min WNW 14 G 19 27°F 53°F1028.7 hPa (+1.9)11°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi63 min NNW 7 G 12 28°F 55°F1027.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi63 min NW 17 G 21 28°F 1027.2 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi63 min WNW 17 G 21 27°F 1026.7 hPa
CPVM2 38 mi63 min 30°F
NCDV2 42 mi63 min NNW 8 G 14 28°F 50°F1027.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 44 mi45 min N 19 G 21 31°F 1028.1 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA6 mi41 minNW 1310.00 miFair27°F12°F53%1028.4 hPa
College Park Airport, MD10 mi50 minNW 710.00 miFair25°F7°F46%1028.1 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD14 mi97 minNW 810.00 miFair25°F8°F49%1027.7 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA14 mi37 minNNW 710.00 miFair26°F9°F49%1028.8 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD17 mi37 minNW 310.00 miFair21°F12°F68%1029.7 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA19 mi41 minNW 410.00 miFair23°F10°F60%1028.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD21 mi51 minWNW 610.00 miFair25°F14°F63%1028.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDCA

Wind History from DCA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSW3SW4S5S6S7S7S6S8S9S10S11S8S8S10S10S11S12S12S10S11SW10SW8SW5
2 days agoS7S8S7S6S8S8S9S11S7S4S4S4S5SW3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, Washington, D.C.
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Reagan National Airport, Washington, D.C.
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Reagan National Airport
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:05 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:32 AM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:49 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:34 PM EST     3.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.70.30.10.311.82.52.82.82.51.81.10.60.20.10.3122.83.33.32.92.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.