Tuesday, September17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:13PM Tuesday September 17, 2019 4:46 PM EDT (20:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:14PMMoonset 8:49AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 435 Pm Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
Rest of this afternoon..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 435 Pm Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure to the north will build over the waters through the end of the week before settling to the south this weekend. Small craft advisories may be required for portions of the waters Thursday morning before the gradient finally slackens.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 171931
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
331 pm edt Tue sep 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure across eastern canada will build southward into
the mid-atlantic through Thursday and then shift south of the
area on Friday. The high will then push offshore this weekend
as canadian low pressure and an associated cold front approach
the area on Monday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday
High pressure centered in quebec will continue to bring dry weather
conditions to our region for tonight. We are anticipating a mainly
clear sky. However, some clouds approaching from the northeast may
begin to drift overhead toward daybreak. Initially, the clouds may
affect only parts of central and southern new jersey.

A northeast wind around 5 to 10 mph is expected in our region from
the interstate 95 corridor to the coast. The wind should be light
and variable in areas to the northwest. The light wind and the
mostly clear sky may allow for the development of some river valley
fog in eastern pennsylvania and northern new jersey late tonight.

Low temperatures are forecast to favor the 50s.

Short term Wednesday
The high to our northeast should continue to influence our weather
for Wednesday. We are expecting another rain-free day. However,
there should be more cloud cover than we observed today.

A short wave trough is expected to drop southward in the mid level
flow on Wednesday. Also, the moisture associated with today's cloud
cover over much of new england is forecast to be over our region at
that time. As a result, the sky cover should vary from partly to
mostly cloudy especially over the coastal plain.

Temperatures on Wednesday are anticipated to be cooler than those of
today. Highs should be mostly in the upper 60s and the lower 70s
with a northeast wind around 8 to 14 mph.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Synoptic overview:
mid-lvl ridging will reside upstream of the area at the start of
the period before shifting overhead and then finally cresting
the area in the Saturday Sunday timeframe. At the surface
canadian high pressure will build into the area on Thursday
before shifting south of the area Friday, and then eventually
moving offshore over the weekend. A trough will approach the
area Monday, with the primary surface low tracking well north of
the area through eastern canada. The attendant cold front and
surface trough will cross the area in the Monday-Tuesday
timeframe, resulting in the only real shot at any precipitation
during the period.

Dailies:
Thursday... It will be quite dry Thursday as the surface high
shifts overhead (pwat values are forecast to be only around 0.3
inches!). Given onshore flow for most of the day temperatures
will remain seasonable with highs generally in the low 70s.

Friday-Sunday... As the high shifts south of the area, flow
will transition more westerly and then southwesterly by Sunday.

Temperatures will warm through this period, and highs
Saturday Sunday should make it into the mid or potentially even
the upper 80s.

Monday... We will likely see warm temperatures again (similar to
Sunday) in prefrontal southwesterly flow on, however, these
temps could be tempered somewhat if the front and or associated
mid- lvl clouds arrive early enough in the day (as the
(generally too fast) GFS indicates). Precipitation chances near
or just ahead of the boundary increase in the afternoon,
although this far out the setup does not look overly impressive
from a convective standpoint. Consequently at this point left
any mention of thunder out of the forecast.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR under a mostly clear sky. Northeast wind 8 knots or
less.

Wednesday...VFR ceilings developing. Northeast wind 6 to 12
knots.

Outlook...

Thursday... Some sub-vfr am stratus potential primarily near the
coast, otherwiseVFR with east-northeast winds 5-10kts.

Friday-Sunday... VFR prevailing with generally light winds
favoring the western half of the compass.

Marine
Hurricane humberto will remain well to the southeast of delaware and
new jersey. However, high pressure to our northeast will maintain a
northeast wind on our coastal waters for tonight and Wednesday. Wave
heights will build gradually to 5 to 8 feet on our ocean waters. As
a result, a small craft advisory is in place from little egg inlet,
new jersey to fenwick island, delaware. A small craft advisory
begins for our coastal waters from little egg inlet to sandy hook,
new jersey at midnight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday morning... Humberto swells will likely
keep seas above SCA criteria (in the 6-8 ft range) through the
period. Fair weather with northeasterly winds gusting 20-25
kts. Early Thursday and then decreasing Friday Saturday.

Saturday through Sunday... Seas should subside below sca
criteria sometime on Saturday and remain low on Sunday.

Generally fair weather with relatively light winds (around 10
kts).

Rip currents...

a northeast wind into tonight will continue to result in a moderate
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents along the coasts
of delaware and new jersey.

We are anticipating a high rip current risk for Wednesday. Breaking
waves are forecast to build to 4 or 5 feet with a stiff northeast
wind at 20 to 25 mph. Also, a long period (around 12 seconds) swell
emanating from hurricane humberto will affect our coast at that
time.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz454-455.

Synopsis... Carr
near term... Iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Carr
aviation... Carr iovino
marine... Carr iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi52 min 75°F
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi22 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 78°F1018.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi46 min N 8.9 G 9.9 74°F 77°F1019.6 hPa (-1.3)58°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi46 min 76°F 1018.2 hPa (-1.5)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi52 min N 8.9 G 13 78°F1018.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi46 min E 6 G 8 76°F 1018.6 hPa (-1.7)
FSNM2 24 mi52 min ENE 6 G 8.9 75°F 1018.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi136 min ENE 2.9 78°F 1019 hPa61°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 27 mi22 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 75°F 1019.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi52 min ENE 11 G 13 75°F 78°F1018.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi52 min SW 4.1 G 8.9 78°F 77°F1018.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi46 min NE 8.9 G 12 75°F 1019 hPa (-1.1)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi52 min ESE 2.9 G 6 78°F 78°F1018.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi46 min NNE 8.9 G 12 76°F 78°F1017.9 hPa (-1.1)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi52 min E 9.9 G 14 77°F 76°F1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi66 minNNW 710.00 miFair77°F59°F54%1018.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi1.9 hrsNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F57°F47%1019.2 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi56 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F57°F48%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm--CalmNE4----CalmE3----Calm--E5CalmNE4NE6----NE8E8NE6NE9NE10NE5
1 day agoNW5NW4NW3CalmCalmSE4E3CalmCalm----CalmCalmCalmCalm----CalmCalmCalmW3S43S5
2 days agoS10
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S9S6S4S4------SE4S5----S4Calm--------N3W10W8NW7NW7NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:07 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:31 AM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:03 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.80.811.21.51.71.71.51.310.70.50.50.50.81.11.51.71.91.81.61.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:10 AM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:13 AM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:12 PM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.10.20.50.60.60.40-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.10.30.70.80.80.70.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.