Thursday, November21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:49PM Thursday November 21, 2019 4:35 PM EST (21:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:52AMMoonset 2:12PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 337 Pm Est Thu Nov 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm est this evening through late tonight...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 337 Pm Est Thu Nov 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will cross the area through tonight. A cold front will cross the region on Friday, and another low pressure system will arrive by late Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday, and again later in the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 212035 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 335 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will move offshore overnight. Low pressure will pass from the Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes through late Friday pushing a cold front across our region on Friday. Low pressure will develop across the southern Appalachians and pass just to the south of the forecast area and offshore late Saturday into early Sunday. High pressure then returns into early next week then another system may potentially impact the region by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. The ridge of high pressure across the area this afternoon will slide offshore tonight. A continuation of fair weather is predicted for the overnight. High clouds over the area will continue to thicken up overnight and some lower clouds will be around by sunrise. Temperatures will be milder than last night with lows expected to be in the upper 30s/low 40s N/W and mid 40s across metro Philadelphia and much of Delmarva. Winds will be light from the S or SW overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Friday . Low pressure will be moving down the Saint Lawrence Valley Friday. An attached cold front will cross the area from NW to SE during the afternoon. The models have been varying quite a bit regarding how much organized precip will occur with the front. The better chcs will be across Delmarva/ SE PA and Srn NJ. Slight chcs will be across other areas. We haven't changed pops too much, with mostly high chc, but some low likely pops will be across srn DE. The previous cycles of the NAM were rather dry, but the 12Z came in with 1/4 inch qpf in many areas. This may be overdone, so I have kept my qpf fcst closer to 1/10th inch attm.

Like today, friday will be mild, prior to frontal passage. Highs will reach into the upper 50s or perhaps a few low 60s for Delmarva. Highs across the N/W areas will be in the low to mid 50s. These readings will be a little above normal for late November. Winds will be south to southwest increasing to 10 to 15 mph late.

Friday night . The cold front continues east of the region while high pressure builds in from the west. Clearing skies during the evening which will continue overnight. Northwest winds with some gusts to around 15-20 mph early then diminishing. Colder (than Thu night) with lows in the mid/upper 20s N/W and near freezing across the Delaware Valley and Delmarva.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The main story early in this period will be the low pressure system still progged to move through the area late Saturday into Sunday. To start the period early Saturday, ridge of high pressure will be located along the east coast with an area of low pressure associated with the southern stream over Tennessee. The day will get off to a mostly clear and chilly start however through the course of the day the high will move off the coast while low pressure approaches as it moves NE into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to skies becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon with rain likely developing towards the late afternoon / early evening time frame from SW to NE. Highs Saturday generally range from around 40 over the southern Poconos to the upper 40s over the Delmarva.

For Saturday night, aformentioned low moves NE into western PA driven by strong but progressive southern stream upper level wave. Forecast models also continue to indicate there will likely be at least some phasing with a northern stream wave dropping through the Great Lakes. Rain will become more widespread through Saturday evening with the tricky part of the forecast being Precip types over northern zones. Temperatures aloft will be above freezing with the strong warm air advection however there looks to be a low level layer near or below freezing over the north so we still think there will likely be some freezing rain over the southern Poconos and possibly parts of Sussex Co, NJ. Best chances for this look to be elevations above 1500 feet or so. Elsewhere, should be all rain.

By Sunday morning, rain will still be ongoing over most of the area (with some freezing rain or light wintry mix still possible in the far north) as a secondary low looks to take shape near the NJ coast. This low will move NE towards New England through the day as it deepens and will bring the precip to an end from west to east as it moves away. Precip should wind down in the morning over much of eastern PA and the Delmarva but possibly not until into the afternoon over portions of northern NJ. While the system will have a fair amount of moisture with it and good dynamics, the progressive nature of it should limit total rain amounts to around 0.75 to 1.00 inches so not expecting any hydro issues. Otherwise it will start to turn a bit breezy with some sunny breaks possible by Sunday afternoon and temperatures remaining on the cool side.

Heading into next week, the weather pattern looks to be overall not too active for this region. High pressure moves in Monday and should influence our weather right through Tuesday bringing dry weather with sunshine for both day and temperatures returning to more seasonable levels. A low pressure system passing N/W of the region may then bring some showers by next Wednesday as its associated cold front moves through.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR expected with an abundance high clouds. A few lower clouds late. Light S or SW winds.

Friday . Increasing clouds. A cold front crosses the TAF sites around the end of the period (18Z), so showers with VFR CIGS was added for the final few hours of the TAFs at KRDG,KABE,KPNE,KTTN. For PHL, added a MVFR group at 18Z with 025 CIG. Confid in the final few hours of the TAFS is limited. SW winds prior to FROPA then NW behind it (afternoon).

Outlook .

Friday night . VFR. Decreasing clouds for the evening, then mostly SKC. Gusty NW winds during the evening, then diminishing.

Saturday and Saturday night . VFR initially with MVFR restrictions developing late in the day through the overnight. Periods of IFR possible. Rain overspreading the region late in the day and through the overnight hours. Winds 5 kts or less initially west becoming variable. Low confidence.

Sunday . Lingering sub-VFR restrictions likely in the morning. Clearing skies throughout the day. Winds becoming northwest around 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts. Moderate confidence on overall evolution; Low confidence on timing of improving restrictions.

Sunday night through Monday . VFR expected. Westerly winds around 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Tonight . High pressure will move offshore tonight. An increasing SW flow will develop behind the high with SCA gusts developing after midnight. The previously issued SCA will remain. I didn't choose to include the DE Bay in the SCA flag attm, although a few G 20-25 kts are possible. Fair weather tonight.

Friday . The SCA flag will continue on the ocean as a cold front arrives on the waters during the afternoon. Showers will accompany the front. Winds will shift from SW to NW after frontal passage. Gusts in the SCA range will continue. Seas mostly 3 to 5 ft on the ocean.

Outlook .

Friday night . SCA gusts and seas continue with cold air pouring across the waters. The SCA for DE bay is still not certain, but possible. I capped the gusts at 22 knts for now on lower DE Bay. Fair weather expected. Cold.

Saturday . Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Saturday night . Conditions nearing SCA criteria overnight along with light to moderate rain.

Sunday . SCA conditions developing by the afternoon hours with offshore winds gusting around 25 kts and waves 3-5 feet. Rain ending during the morning.

Sunday night through Monday . Lingering SCA conditions will diminish by daybreak Monday, then sub-SCA conditions expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Staarmann Near Term . O'Hara Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . Fitzsimmons/Staarmann Aviation . O'Hara/Staarmann Marine . O'Hara/Staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi54 min 49°F
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi30 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 48°F 49°F1021.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi36 min SSE 8 G 8 49°F 49°F1022.1 hPa (-1.5)39°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi48 min 49°F 1020.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi54 min S 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 49°F1021 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi48 min SE 8 G 8.9 49°F 1020.9 hPa
FSNM2 24 mi78 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 48°F 1020.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi126 min WSW 2.9 55°F 1021 hPa32°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 27 mi54 min S 7.8 G 9.7 48°F 1022.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi54 min Calm G 1 48°F 48°F1021.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi54 min S 4.1 G 7 50°F 53°F1020.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi54 min S 8 G 8.9 51°F 46°F1021.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi54 min SE 5.1 G 6 49°F 51°F1021.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi54 min SW 4.1 G 6 51°F 47°F1020.9 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi41 minS 410.00 miFair48°F35°F62%1021.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi42 minS 510.00 miFair49°F36°F61%1021.4 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi46 minN 010.00 miClear52°F33°F50%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12W6NW6W6W6W7NW8NW8NW7W6NW7NW7NW7NW5W3W4NW5NW6W5NW5SW4SW5SW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmW3NW7NW8W11
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2 days agoCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3S6CalmSW8SW4W4W6W5W4NW5W4W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
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Thu -- 12:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:08 PM EST     1.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:46 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.10.90.60.30.20.10.30.50.91.11.21.210.80.60.40.20.20.30.60.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:41 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:04 AM EST     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:33 PM EST     0.80 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:12 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:52 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:48 PM EST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:50 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.2-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.10.30.60.80.80.60.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.30.10.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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