Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Beach, MD

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday July 18, 2019 6:16 PM EDT (22:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:54PMMoonset 6:21AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 436 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tstms likely. Showers likely. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. The remnants of barry will move into the western atlantic through tonight. High pressure will build over the southeastern states for Friday into the weekend. A cold front will approach the waters from the great lakes and pennsylvania Sunday night, and cross the waters early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Beach town, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 181955
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
355 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance will move into the western atlantic
tonight. High pressure will build over the southeastern united
states Friday through the weekend. A cold front approaching from
the great lakes and pennsylvania will cross the region early
next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A trough axis remains across the i-95 corridor this afternoon.

Daytime heating has permitted nearly 1500 j kg of MLCAPE to
develop, but with little shear. The catalyst for thunderstorms
today will be the available instability (which increases toward
the bay), steepening low level lapse rates, high dewpoints, and
various disorganized spokes of vorticity embedded within the
mid level flow. Given precipitable water near 2.25 inches in the
baltimore-washington corridor with small mbe vectors, heavy
rain will also be a concern. Wet microbursts could result in the
most mature storms. The trough axis should reach the bay by
dusk, ending the thunderstorm threat.

Warm and humid tonight with lows in the 70s and patchy fog
possible, especially in any areas that receive rain today given
decreasing cloud cover.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday night
Based on latest high-performing temperature dew point guidance,
have gone ahead and hoisted a heat advisory for much of the area
excluding the higher elevations. Some locations along the i-95
corridor may be borderline for a warning, so it's possible a
later shift may need to upgrade. Excessive heat watches remain
in place for Saturday. A building ridge of high pressure will
make that the primary concern, as 850 temps rise to 22-24c.

Think that subsidence will mostly prevent storms from
developing, but could not rule out a stray shower thunderstorm
from breaking the cap. Do not have confidence in placement or
timing, so will be silent on that risk for now.

While the entire period looks hot, Saturday may be the day of
greater concern, without the benefit of any real relief at
night.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
High pressure will shift off the coast as a warm front moves through
our region on Sunday. This will place our region in the warm sector
ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. This will lead to
another hot day with daytime temperatures hovering in the upper 90s
to low 100s. These high temperatures will combine with dew point
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s to create another
day of dangerous heat indexes for most of our region. This means
that heat advisories will likely be needed with possibly a excessive
heat warning. Thunderstorms and showers will be a concern again
during the day due to high cape. The better chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be later in the day Sunday and into Monday as the
cold front approaches and moves through our region. The models have
been trending quicker with this frontal passage. This has led to the
main threat becoming more flood based compared to severe due to the
frontal timing. If the front moves through later on Monday, the risk
for severe weather could increase but there remains a lot of
uncertainty at this time. The biggest message will be that there
will be threat for thunderstorms and showers late Sunday into Monday
with an isolated threat for flood and severe weather.

The cold front is expected to move through our region by late Monday
and into early Tuesday. The models have been hinting that the
boundary may stall over our southern parts of our CWA or just south
of our cwa. This would lead to continued chances for showers into
Tuesday. Again there remains a lot of uncertainty on this solution.

There is good agreement that Tuesday into Wednesday will be much
cooler in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the 50s. High
pressure will build back into our region for Wednesday.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
MainlyVFR expected through Saturday night. Possible exceptions
would be in any thunderstorm that develops this afternoon, or
any patchy fog that develops during the overnight early morning
hours. Generally west flow AOB 10 kts expected. Best chance for
thunderstorms today appears to be near east of the blue ridge
this afternoon, with best fog potential between 8-12z near
outlying terminals or in areas that receive rain this afternoon.

The thunderstorm threat is slim to none for Friday and Saturday.

Skies will be mostly clear with some scattered cloud cover. It will
continue to be hot and humid with heat indexes above 105 and
possibly 110.VFR conditions expected for most of the day Sunday at
this time.

Clouds will increase Sunday evening through Monday as a cold front
moves through our region. Thunderstorms and showers will be
possible. Subvfr conditions will be possible.

Marine
South west winds 10 kt or less this afternoon, though gusty
winds are possible in and near any thunderstorms that develop
(which may require smws). Winds will remain light through
Saturday.

Hot humid conditions expected Sunday and Monday with a southerly
flow. Small craft advisories may be needed.

Climate
The record daily warm low temperature for iad for july 18th is
74 degrees, set in 2005 and 1969.

As a reference, here are the warm temperature records for
Friday through this weekend:
record daily high temperatures
jul 19 jul 20 jul 21
dca 102 (1930) 106 (1930) 104 (1926)
bwi 103 (1930) 102 (1930) 104 (1930)
iad 98 (1977) 101 (1980) 101 (1991)
record daily warm low temperatures
jul 19 jul 20 jul 21
dca 81 (1930) 82 (2015) 82 (1987)
bwi 80 (1942) 80 (1930) 83 (1930)
iad 77 (2013) 75 (2015) 77 (1987)
highest july temperatures
highest MAX warmest low
dca 106 (7 20 1930) 84 (7 24 2011, 7 23 2011, 7 16 1983)
bwi 107 (7 10 1936) 83 (7 21 1930)
iad 105 (7 22 2011) 78 (7 24 2010, 7 8 2010)
all-time highest temperatures
highest MAX warmest low
dca 106 (7 20 1930, 8 6 1918) 84 (7 24 2011, 7 23 2011, 7 16 1983)
bwi 107 (7 10 1936) 83 (8 5 1930, 7 21 1930, 6 6 1925)
iad 105 (7 22 2011) 79 (8 8 2007)
longest stretches of consecutive days with high temperatures at or
over 100 degrees at iad:
2 (7 7-8 2012, 7 21-22 2011, 7 6-7 2010, 8 16-17 1997, 7 16-17 1988
and 7 20-21 1980)
longest stretch of consecutive days with low temperatures at or over
80 degrees at dca:
5 (7 16-20 2013)
longest stretch of consecutive days with low temperatures at or over
80 degrees at bwi:
4 (8 8-11 1900)
temperature records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca) since
1941. Additional temperature records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1872.

Temperature records for the baltimore md area have been kept at what
is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall airport
(bwi) since 1950. Additional temperature records observed downtown
extend the period of record back to 1872.

Temperature records for the sterling dulles va area have been kept
at what is now washington dulles international airport (iad) since
1960.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Friday for dcz001.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for dcz001.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for dcz001.

Md... Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Friday for mdz003>006-011-
013-014-016>018-502>508.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for mdz003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for mdz003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.

Va... Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Friday for vaz026>031-
036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for vaz028-030-031-052>057-501-502-505-506.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for vaz028-030-031-052>057-501-502-505-506.

Wv... Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Friday for wvz050>053-055-
502-504.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for wvz051>053.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for wvz051>053.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Jmg
aviation... Hts jmg
marine... Hts jmg
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 2 mi77 min SSE 7 G 8.9 86°F 82°F1011.6 hPa (-1.0)78°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 4 mi47 min 91°F 1010.2 hPa
CPVM2 6 mi47 min 87°F 80°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 20 mi53 min NW 11 G 13 86°F 1010.8 hPa
FSNM2 20 mi53 min WNW 9.9 G 11 86°F 1010.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 22 mi47 min NNE 8.9 G 11 84°F 85°F1011.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 24 mi53 min NNW 5.1 G 8 87°F 85°F1010.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 31 mi47 min NW 7 G 9.9 92°F 86°F1011.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 32 mi53 min 91°F 88°F1010.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi47 min NNW 4.1 G 7 90°F 1011.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi47 min W 4.1 G 7 91°F 84°F1010.4 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD4 mi23 minWNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds93°F73°F54%1010.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD7 mi37 minSSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F77°F63%1010.8 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD20 mi35 minNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F75°F70%1011.8 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD21 mi23 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F73°F61%1010.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi29 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F77°F63%1012.2 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi81 minWNW 810.00 miFair90°F70°F53%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W7
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1 day agoS74CalmS7S4W3SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW554NW9W33SE9S9
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2 days agoN5NW3S7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmS3NE3CalmCalmSW3SW3S73SW55

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Ridge, Maryland
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Bay Ridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:39 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.60.81.11.31.41.41.31.10.90.70.50.40.40.50.60.80.90.90.90.70.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:36 AM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:50 AM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:34 PM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.711.10.90.60.1-0.4-0.8-1-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.50.60.50.2-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.