Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Annapolis Neck, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A broad area of snow and sleet has overspread much of the region south of I-66/US-48 as of 930AM this morning. While most of this accumulation will be a coating to 1", some higher elevation spots in central VA will see around 1-2" of snow/sleet. Warm air advection aloft will transition the snow/sleet to a freezing rain this afternoon from south to north. The freezing rain continues through this evening, though eventually becoming a drizzle as the overall wave of low pressure starts to exit the area.

No changes planned to the current winter headlines in effect. An SPS was issued for Southern MD/Fredericksburg area for light accumulations and slick spots in those areas.

Expect temperatures to creep up very slow through the day, eventually causing precip to shift to a cold rain by the mid- evening hours. Any precipitation (liquid and frozen) should end during the middle of the night. The exception would be over the Alleghenies where some upslope aided activity persists.

For those with any travel plans across the region, check back at weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest information on the timing and expectations from this winter storm.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday and Monday will be relatively quiet. Some upslope wintry precip could continue along the Alleghenies through Sunday morning.
Under NW downsloping flow, high temperatures outside of the mountains are expected to reach into the 40s for most of the area.
Portions of the Shenandoah Valley and Virginia Piedmont could approach/exceed 50. Winds could gust 25-30 mph in the morning (higher in the lee of the mountains) before tapering off in the afternoon.

Low temperatures then fall into the 20s to low 30s across the area.
A disturbance is expected to pass to our south late Sunday night into early Monday morning, which could yield a rain/snow mix along our far southern zones (Nelson, Albermarle, Augusta), but current probs are <25%.

Dry conditions under NW flow and clearing skies is expected for most of Monday. Highs top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s (low-mid 30s in the mountains). Cloud cover increased after sunset from west to east as the next system approaches. With lows in the 20s to low 30s across the board, precip begins to work its way into the area from the SW late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, likely in the form of snow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Very active wx pattern with three systems expected to impact the area through next Sat Feb 15. Latest model trends indicate the first system on Tue a bit more suppressed with stronger wedge of high pressure supporting snow as the main p-type, except perhaps south of I-64, but at the same time shifting the axis of heaviest precip to areas along I-64, Fredericksburg, and St.
Mary's County. Difference QPF percentiles show the biggest uncertainty in QPF totals around half inch along the I-66 and US-50 corridors Tuesday, with areas north of I-70 having the least amount of uncertainty. Min and Max values from the EPS show anywhere from an inch of snow to as much as foot of snow across parts of northern VA.

The first system will exit by 12Z Wed with only a short break in precip before the next precip event arrives midnight Wed night.
The primary low pressure system is fcst to track across the upper OH River Valley with guidance indicating a prominent warm nose a mix to rain or all rain more likely.

A third and more complex system may impact the region next weekend with all types of wintry precip possible. Temps look to stay below normal for daytime highs and near normal for nighttime lows into late Feb.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An initial mix of snow/sleet has started at most terminals this morning, with a transition to freezing rain by this afternoon.
Visibility, ceiling, and frozen precipitation restrictions are expected through this evening. Precipitation does transition to rain by this evening. Low clouds/vis persist into the night, with improvements expected overnight as a cold front sweeps through the area.

Winds turn southerly and then W/NW behind the cold front early Sunday morning, bringing VFR conditions. Gusty NW winds 20-25 knots are expected in the morning, diminishing to around 15-20 knots in the afternoon, and lighter overnight. Light N/NW winds with VFR conditions are expected Monday.

Mdt to heavy snow event becoming increasingly likely Tue-Tue night with IFR/LIFR conditions. Precip should exit the area by 12Z Wed.

MARINE
Onshore flow this morning becomes S/SW tonight. Winds increase ahead of a cold front late tonight, and could approach SCA criteria.
Strong NW winds are expected behind the cold front on Sunday morning, with SCAs likely needed into the afternoon. Light N/NE winds are expected Monday.

SCA conditions Tue night through the first half of the week.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MDZ005- 006-008-011-503-505>508.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ013- 014-504.
Ice Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for MDZ001-501.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MDZ003- 004-502.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ506- 526.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ050- 051-053-054-502-527.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ027>031-038>040-501-505-507.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ025- 026-036-037-503-504-508.
Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ503-504.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for WVZ050>053-055-501>504.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ505- 506.
Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ505.
MARINE...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530.