Tuesday, June2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:01PM Tuesday June 2, 2020 1:28 AM EDT (05:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:30PMMoonset 3:16AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 020238 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1038 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. As high pressure retreats to the east tonight, a warm front will develop in the Great Lakes. Above normal temperatures and higher humidity levels return Tuesday and will last through the week. An area of thunderstorms will drop through the Great Lakes, affecting the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Rain chances will linger over the region for the later part of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Short wave moving through the Great Lakes has generated showers, which are dropping southeast. Still a chance that the tail end of this precipitation could bring some very light precipitation to parts of central Ohio. Otherwise, mid clouds across the region will start to diminish towards daybreak. Forecast lows look reasonable.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Region will be warm sectored for Tuesday as a warm front develops over the Great Lakes. Plenty of sunshine is expected. Highs will jump into the mid 80s and humidity levels will begin to increase.

By Tuesday night the region will remain on the northern edge of high pressure, which is centered of the southeast coast. This will keep the area dry. Lows will be well above normal, only dropping back into the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Active start to the long term period as a frontal boundary approaches the forecast area from the north. Temperatures start warm as southwesterly flow around the northwest periphery of a ridge continues to advect warm/moist air northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Current expectations are that most of the area starts cloud free with perhaps some mid-upper level clouds extending southward from weakening nighttime convection to the north. This allows for plentiful heating into the afternoon with mid to upper 80s area wide. Low 90s are possible in warmer locations with NBM probabilities still around 40%. Late in the afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to initiate along the frontal boundary stretched across north-central Ohio as shortwave energy moves through the northwest flow. There is some uncertainty as to how decaying convection from overnight Tuesday may play a role on convective initiation on Wednesday, but mesoscale boundaries are difficult to predict several days in advance. For now, expect thunderstorms to develop north of I- 70, late in the afternoon on Wednesday.

Regarding Severe Potential Wed-Wed Night- Day 3 SLGT risk from SPC currently issued for much of the area with marginal risk across the south. Highest confidence for severe storms during the late afternoon is positioned north of I-70 where capping inversion is eventually overcome between 5-6 PM. Explosive initiation along the west to east boundary is indicated in Simulated IR from both the NAM and ECMWF. With an unstable environment and effective shear between 25-30 knots, multi-cell clusters capable of damaging winds and hail are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours as instability is maximized. Heading into the evening, multi-cell clusters may upscale into a couple southward progressing linear segments for a couple hours. Toward the late evening, questions remain as to how prolonged the severe threat lasts, as instability decreases and storm elements move south of the strongest shear. Additionally, westerly shear will favor north to south oriented linear segments vs east to west as cold pool advancement to the south likely results in outflow dominated storms. This would lead to gradual weakening as storms move southward.

Regarding Flood Threat Wednesday Night: WPC day 3 outlook places most of the area in a marginal threat for flash flooding. Despite trends toward weakening storms into the overnight, instability persists within modest westerly flow resulting in some potential for backward propagating convection through the overnight. As the overnight progresses, thunderstorms become more efficient rain produces as the atmospheric column moistens with additional moisture advection from the west. Mesoscale processes become the primary focus overnight as they play a role in focusing heavy rain over localized areas. These details are still uncertain 3 days in advance, but the potential for localized flash flooding is becoming more apparent.

For Thursday, ongoing showers and thunderstorms are still expected during the morning hours as the frontal boundary begins to weaken. New synoptic energy in the form of a shortwave trough moves into the Ohio Valley resulting in another round of showers and thunderstorms. Activity from Wednesday may limit some heating on Thursday, but sufficient diurnal heating and a rather moist atmosphere in place should still result in a new period of convective initiation, this time focusing along and south of I-70. While the severe threat is lower for this period of convection, continued heavy rain over increasingly saturated ground may lead to additional flood concerns.

A third and final period of convection occurs on Friday as another shortwave moves over an area of increasing instability across the Ohio Valley. Although some severe storms are certainly possible, Friday would be the third day in a row of widespread convection for the forecast area. So, while still 5 days away, heavy rain leading to local flash flooding and perhaps now river flooding, is the primary concern. Temperatures remain above normal.

For Saturday through Monday, guidance is coming better in line with a deepening trough over the Northeast and an amplified ridge in the central US. This will help to dry out the Ohio Valley and keep temperatures near to slightly above average.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR will prevail through the TAF period with just mid and high clouds moving across the region. South winds will become southwest after 12Z and increase during the day. There could be some gusts up to 25 kt.

OUTLOOK . Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon into Friday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . Sites NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . Sites LONG TERM . McGinnis AVIATION .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi36 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds66°F44°F45%1019.4 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi35 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F50°F60%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVG

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E10E4E4E4E4SE5SE6S8SE5SE4Calm4S3SW3W7S5SW4S3CalmS3S6S7S8
1 day agoN10N8N6N6N7N5N8NE13NE11N12NE10
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2 days agoS5SW3CalmNW6N6N6N6N10N8N10N13NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.