Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:18PM Friday December 13, 2019 9:52 PM EST (02:52 UTC) Moonrise 6:49PMMoonset 9:07AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 140238 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 938 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Rain will overspread the area tonight into Saturday ahead of low pressure traveling across the Appalachians. Drier weather will accompany high pressure later Saturday through Sunday. Precipitation returns Sunday night and Monday when low pressure is forecast to push through Indiana and Ohio.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Rain is moving from the south ahead of low pressure traveling up the Appalachians along the eastern flank of an upper trough. A quarter inch of rain has been recorded in southern locations with another couple tenths probable overnight in continued moisture advection and lift ahead of the low.

Overnight, some snowflakes may mix in across central Ohio but thermal profiles are forecast to be near/above freezing up to 2000 ft AGL. Thus, most snowflakes falling into the column will likely melt. Little to no snow accumulation is expected where there is some mix-in of snowflakes.

It should also be mentioned that the lower atmosphere moisture profiles are supportive of fog formation across the CWA tonight with increasing moisture and calm winds. However, the steady rain may act to mix the low levels enough so as to preclude the development of dense fog.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Precipitation will be exiting the western CWA Saturday morning and linger in the east through the afternoon as a strengthening cyclone forms over the eastern seaboard. Increasing westerly winds will usher on cool air from the west, which will help keep temperatures down Saturday with highs near 40 across the area. Some flurries might be possible Saturday evening/night due to the presence of low-level moisture, but confidence is not high enough to include in the grids at this time -- especially with the gradual loss of saturation in the DGZ. Currently, just have partly/mostly cloudy skies with lows in the mid 20s across the west and near 30 across the east.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The first part of Sunday should be quiet before the next weather system affects the region by Sunday night. Weak surface high pressure will extend across the region. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, highs will range from the lower 30s north to near 40 south.

Low pressure is forecast to organize across the Arklatex region Sunday night. Ahead of this low, a warm front will begin to advance northeast toward the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist ascent in the form of a low level jet is expected to pivot northeast well ahead of the low, which should spread a shield of pcpn east/northeast into our region. Pcpn will begin as a rain/snow mix far south with snow expected to the north as the pcpn shield advances. Warmer air aloft will eventually allow for some sleet and freezing rain to mix in late across parts of the north. Although lows will range from the mid 20s north to the lower 30s south, temperatures will begin to rise along and south of the Ohio River after midnight.

For Monday into Monday night, as mid level s/wv energy pivots northeast from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, aforementioned low pressure will deepen some as it moves northeast across the Ohio Valley. There are some strength and timing differences among the deterministic operational model runs with the ECMWF being the slowest and and slightly deeper. That being said, have taken a blend with pcpn transitioning more over to rain from south to north through the day as temperatures warm above freezing. The far northwest may remain a rain/snow mix. Accumulating snow will be possible Sunday night into Monday, along with some light ice accumulations (especially along and north of I-70) before temperatures warm above freezing. For now, have gone with an inch or less mainly south of the Ohio River with 1 to 3 inches north of the Ohio River. There will also be the potential for some moderate to locally heavy rain in our southeast due to another low level jet surge in association with the low. For Monday night, as the low pressure moves by to the northeast, pcpn will taper off. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. Lows Monday night will range from the lower 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast.

The mid level flow will become northwesterly Tuesday into Wednesday. This will allow for colder air to move into the region along with surface ridging. Highs in the 30s on Tuesday will drop into highs the mid 20s to the lower 30s on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be cold in the teens.

For Thursday into Friday, high pressure will move east. Temperatures will moderate into the 30s and 40s. Some uncertainty exists as to whether the next weather system will affect the region either late Friday or Saturday, so have kept the forecast dry.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low pressure will be crossing the Appalachians tonight before reaching the mid Atlantic Coast on Saturday. Flight conditions will grow steadily worse tonight as rain moves in and produces a saturated boundary layer. We can expect IFR conditions tonight to Saturday morning, with snow mixing with rain at DAY and ILN. Some improvement to MVFR is forecast later Saturday as drier begins to work in on an increasing west to northwest flow. A retreat to IFR will be possible Saturday night at CVG in low level moisture convergence along a weak trough.

OUTLOOK . MVFR ceilings will linger into Saturday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely again late Sunday night into Monday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . KC NEAR TERM . Campbell/Coniglio SHORT TERM . Campbell LONG TERM . Hickman AVIATION . Coniglio


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi60 minN 54.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F39°F92%1009.4 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi59 minN 04.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F41°F96%1010.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVG

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE5S5S8S7S7S6S5S5S4S7S7S10S7SE5S8S6S6SE6E4SE4E3CalmN5
1 day agoNE6E7E6E5E5E5E4SE6SE5SE9SE8SE7SE8SE6SE7SE11SE8SE8SE9SE8SE8SE8SE5SE5
2 days agoW6W5W5SW3SW3SW3SW6SW5S5S6S6S8S12SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.