Oakbrook, KY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakbrook, KY

April 16, 2024 7:21 AM EDT (11:21 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:58 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM
Moonrise 12:23 PM   Moonset 2:50 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 161037 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 637 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift northeast today on the back side of an eastward departing upper level ridge. Strong advection of moisture overnight will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to the region. These storms will become more hit and miss on Wednesday morning, until a cold front interacts with an upper level trough to provide a decent amount of dynamic forcing to spark showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Models have been consistently trending lower in the occurrence and areal placement of shower activity today. Small downward adjustments were done this morning but expect the synoptic runs in just a few hours will be much more clear with their determinations.

A warm front will move north-northeast today as broad warm advection is found behind it. Some of this warm air pushing into the front may find enough lift to spark shower and thunderstorm activity. Any activity from this morning is expected to increase in scope this afternoon as dewpoints in its immediate wake warm into the low 60s. The low level moisture and temperatures warming to the upper 70s and near 80 will give any ongoing storms an added kick that may result in some damaging winds.

Models are sparse with where precip is being forecast and the CAMs appear quite bullish in developing anything outside of central Ohio and Hocking Hills in the late afternoon given daytime heating. The marginal threat on the day 1 outlook feels overdone and could have seen a larger push from the south with regards to a lower threat.

Under high cloud cover and some developing mid level clouds in the afternoon, highs will reach the upper 70s along and north of the I-70 corridor, near or in the low 80s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Any showers lingering in the early evening will quickly be shunted east-northeast and out of the forecast area. This respite will be broken shortly after midnight as an area of showers and thunderstorms work towards the IN/OH border and rapidly move east into the remainder of the forecast area.

There is a possibility that storms will be out of the CWA Wednesday morning, or experience a significant decrease in coverage and intensity. However, a second round is progged to come in from the northwest during the afternoon with the passage of the negatively tilting h5 trough through northern Indiana. This scenario would have a much lower impact on southern and southeastern CWA with regards to severe weather.

In the northwestern half of the CWA, the negatively tilting trough in combination with a moist airmass, some daytime heating (possibly more if morning activity dies out), and steep lapse rates will create the threat of strong thunderstorms. The presence of an inversion around 5kft throws a potential to limit all but the strongest cells to actually become storms. If so, wind gusts and some hail are the primary threat. The axis of the negatively tilting trough could supply enough vorticity that storms in the environment may produce a tornado. This is not an expectation in any way, but it is a non-zero threat that is more focused over west central Ohio.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The cold front will be pushing through, or will have just pushed through, the ILN FA for the beginning of the extended period before the front begins to stall with westward extension back in the wrn TN Vly Wednesday night. Slightly cooler/drier air will briefly settle into the local area by Thursday morning, with the pivoting/nearly- stationary boundary extending from somewhere in the vicinity of the MO bootheel E toward WV.

Thursday should bring with it some tranquil conditions locally, albeit somewhat brief. With the front stalling just to the S, the cooler air for Thursday really won't be all that "cool." In fact, recent ensemble and deterministic guidance has trended a bit warmer with highs for Thursday, with plenty of sunshine to support this trend as well as highs top out around 70 (WC to central OH) to the upper 70s S of the OH Rvr.

Clouds will be on the increase by Thursday effing once again as a midlevel S/W approaches from the W within the quasi-zonal flow established in the region. Some subtle WAA and moisture advection will occur Thursday evening/night ahead of the weak sfc wave and attendant front, which should be progressing through the local area in the several hour period around daybreak Friday. Ahead of the front and in the regime of increasing moisture/forcing, SHRA and some ISO TSRA are expected Thursday night into early Friday morning, with TSRA favored for locales S of I-70 where a narrow axis of mrgl instby may briefly develop. Guidance suggests that rainfall amounts with this system should generally be on the order of one quarter to one half inch, with iso higher amounts if more convection is able to develop (especially near/S of the OH Rvr).

Clearing conditions should evolve by late in the day Friday as slightly cooler air /finally/ begins to build in from the N (although it will do so quite slowly, taking the better part of 24- 48 hours for the coolest air to arrive in the OH Vly). The remains of the front will oscillate about the far srn OH Vly and TN Vly through Saturday, keeping a chance of SHRA going S of the ILN FA during this time frame. However, would expect that dry conditions return locally Friday morning, with only a slight chance for lingering SHRA along the far srn fringes of the local area Friday night into Saturday.

A mix of sun and clouds is on tap for the weekend, with daily highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Daily average temps will be about 6-8 degrees below normal from Saturday through Monday. We could even see some frost Saturday night and especially Sunday night as the core of the springtime cool air settles in. Clearer skies and calm winds suggest Sunday night will be the best chance for more widespread frost potential.

Dry conditions should prevail into early next week as temps begin to slowly moderate toward midweek. Highs on Tuesday should get back above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weak frontal boundary will drift north-northeast this morning from its current placement running nw and e of Louisville. This is slightly further south than earlier expectations but not significantly so. Some weak WAA/moist convergence necessitates keeping some chance (low) for showers and storms south and west of metro Cincy. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any precipitation as 5-10kt winds veer east- southeast.

The frontal boundary will move northeast as a warm front during the day. Forcing remains generally weak and most models are sparing in their precip footprint today, so will keep just a chance of showers/storms. 10kt winds will veer southeast-south.

An area of showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward from expected placement along IN/OH border near midnight. A tongue of moisture being driven in on a fairly deep layer of lower level winds around 40kt will aid in these storms maintaining as they move eastward overnight.

OUTLOOK...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms through Wednesday night. Wind gusts around 30 knots Wednesday afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings possible Thursday. MVFR conditions possible Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KCVG CINCINNATI/NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTL,KY 9 sm29 minE 0710 smOvercast63°F46°F55%30.03
KLUK CINCINNATI MUNI AIRPORT LUNKEN FIELD,OH 20 sm28 minN 0510 smPartly Cloudy57°F52°F82%30.05
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Wilmington, OH,



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