Monday, June21, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Columbia, MO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:39PM Monday June 21, 2021 2:46 AM CDT (07:46 UTC) Moonrise 4:19PMMoonset 2:08AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia, MO
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 38.93, -92.29     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLSX 210450 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1150 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Monday Night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Key messages through the short-term period:

1) Another round of storms is expected this evening and through the overnight hours along a cold front. A few of these storms in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois could be severe, with large hail and damaging wind being the dominant threats. Uncertainty over how strong these storms will be still exists. Latest guidance suggests a slightly later frontal passage, which would leave storms with a small window of opportunity to develop before weakening and moving south.

2) One more day of elevated heat is expected today, with heat indices between 95-100F possible. The Heat Advisory currently in effect for the St. Louis metropolitan area is likely to end this evening as planned.

3) While rain chances linger tomorrow, the bigger story will be the dramatic cooldown brought by the cold front. While not forecast to break records, highs should be ~15F below normal on Monday.

The record-breaking upper-level ridge that brought us several days of hot, humid weather is now a shell of its former self, eroded notably by an amplifying trough that is moving south through the Upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, our CWA remains squarely in the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered across the central Plains. A weak line of thunderstorms, remnant from overnight convection that traversed the Plains, crossed through northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois and caused nothing more than frequent lightning and brief downpours. Otherwise, the weather areawide has been tranquil and uneventful. Heat indices are struggling to attain dangerous levels, likely because of the cooler start we got today after yesterday's convection. Regardless, dew points are recovering well and we should warm into the low/mid 90s in east-central MO. For this reason, and given that it is close to ending in the first place, the Heat Advisory in effect for the St. Louis area will be expired this evening as planned.

Attention will then turn to a climatologically-robust cold front that is expected to drop south through the region this evening. Latest surface analysis depicts a broad region of upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across western MO ahead of the front, and guidance suggests that the ongoing convection will not do much to dampen instability this afternoon. Guidance is uniformly depicting 40-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear and briefly-elevated 0-1km/effective SRH during the late afternoon. Model soundings also depict a curved hodograph, suggesting that if supercells develop amidst the favorable shear (and that is a sizable "if" at this point), tornadic activity is possible. However, cloud bases are modeled to be a bit over 1km high, and if storms cannot organize before sunset, they likely won't have enough low-level instability and SRH to pose a tornadic threat.

Mid-level lapse rates are better than they were yesterday, when we still experienced 1"+ hail. However, we are on the periphery of the better lapse rates (which are further west), and will likely need similar updraft strengths to yesterday to achieve severe hail. With lower CAPE values and a general weakening trend through the evening expected, even severe hail may be a stretch after the first few hours of the evening. Finally, the threat for wind damage is also much lower than yesterday's storms, since low-level lapse rates are much less impressive and the inverted-V signature evident in yesterday's model soundings is gone. The only hope for damaging wind would be a pretty hydrometeor-loaded downdraft, but again those would be few and far between. All of this is to say that the severe threat this evening is looking more and more conditional by the minute, but large hail and damaging wind remain possible if storms can develop.

As the front advances through the CWA tonight, thunderstorms should give way to mainly showers (with an isolated storm possible) as we approach daybreak tomorrow. While post-frontal showers will likely linger, they'll be starved of much instability and thunder will be at a premium. The big story for tomorrow will be the drastically- cooler temperatures. The NAEFS guidance highlights 850mb temperatures of 7-11C across the CWA, which falls between the 1st and 3rd climatological percentile. As a result, surface temperatures will struggle to climb through the low 70s, which is nearly 15F below normal for this time of year. While this forecast does not call for record cold on Monday/Monday night, it comes close to doing so and there may be room to go lower if cloud cover is more robust than anticipated. See the Climate section of the AFD below for record low maximum temperatures on Monday.

MRB

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Next Sunday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Key messages through the extended period:

1) Dry, tranquil weather takes hold Tuesday and Wednesday. Our cooldown is short-lived, as we return to near-normal temperatures by Wednesday and low-90s by Friday.

2) Along with the return to more seasonable temperatures, humidity also makes a comeback by later this week. This combination will set the stage for precipitation chances to return by Thursday.

After the surface cold front passes through the CWA on Monday, another vortmax will traverse the base of the broad trough and further amplify the mid-level flow. Amidst the resultant northwesterly flow and anomalously-cold 850mb temperatures, highs will stay below normal on Tuesday before recovering on Wednesday to near (but slightly below) normal. This pattern will also give us a reprieve from the recently-active weather we've experienced.

The trough starts to propagate downstream Wednesday as the ridge over the western CONUS expands east over us. Accordingly, 850mb temperatures begin to rise to more climatologically-normal levels by Thursday, and even touches the 90th climatological percentile as temperatures warm to slightly above normal by Friday. As the ridge expands to encompass most of the lower half of the CONUS, shortwave energy propagating around the base of the trough to our north will bring chances for rain to the northern CWA on Thursday. By Friday, however, a more dramatic bout of energy extends down and digs through the central CONUS, which will bring better chances for more widespread convection. Deterministic guidance is in general agreement on the timing of the forcing moving through the region on Friday, though they differ on how strong that forcing is. The ensemble guidance also almost uniformly depicts measurable precipitation across the area, but their skill in warm season QPF is less-than desirable, and I don't think widespread rain is a possibility at this point. Due to some uncertainty over the timing of the forcing amidst the ensemble guidance, PoPs linger through Saturday across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL.

MRB

AVIATION. (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

A cold front extending from a surface low in northeastern WI southwest to near UIN and just south of MCI will move southeastward through the taf sites late tonight. Showers and storms can be expected along and just ahead of this front late tonight. Post frontal showers can also be expected Monday morning and early afternoon, mainly from the COU area east to the STL area. There may also be post frontal MVFR cloud ceilings late tonight and Monday morning, particularly in the St Louis metro area. The southwesterly winds will veer around to a northwest direction late tonight after fropa. The sky will clear out late Monday afternoon and evening with a diminishing wind. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: A cold front extending from a surface low in northeastern WI southwest to near UIN and just south of MCI will move southeastward through the STL area late tonight. Showers and storms can be expected along and just ahead of this front late tonight. Post frontal showers can also be expected Monday morning and early afternoon. There will also be post frontal MVFR cloud ceilings late tonight and Monday morning. The southwesterly winds will veer around to a northwest direction late tonight after fropa. The sky will clear out late Monday afternoon and evening with a diminishing wind.

GKS

CLIMATE. Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Record Low Maximum Temperatures for June 21st Across the Region:

STL: 70F (1970) COU: 67F (1902) UIN: 67F (1902)

MRB

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbia, Columbia Regional Airport, MO8 mi52 minWNW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F68°F93%1005.5 hPa
Jesse Viertel Memorial Airport, MO21 mi51 minNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy0°F0°F%1007.1 hPa
Jefferson City, Jefferson City Memorial Airport, MO24 mi53 minW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F67°F84%1004.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCOU

Wind History from COU (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrW7W5SW7W6SW10S7S7S8S12SW14
G24
S12
G19
S11S15
G22
S14
G23
S16
G25
S16
G24
S12
G21
S12S12S15NW23
G31
N3SW7NW8
1 day agoSW12SW7S8SE3S6SW10SW11
G17
S12SW11
G17
SW11
G19
SW14SW11
G21
S13SW15
G22
W11SW14S8S8SE6E16
G39
E14
G23
E11
G21
NW22
G30
N7
2 days agoSW11SW11SW11SW8SW7SW11SW13SW13W11W10SW6S15
G19
SW10
G20
SW12
G20
S11SW11SW8S8S7S6S8S13
G21
SW15
G22
SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.