Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Columbia, MO

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A cold front will move slowly southeast through the area today. The front will slow down through the day and finally stall this evening over southern MO/northern AR this evening as the mid-upper level short wave driving it moves east into the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the vicinity of the front as it moves through the area today. The combination of precipitation, cloud cover from upstream convection, and cooler air filtering in behind the front will suppress temperatures for most of the area today. Highs today should be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Thursday in the 60s to low 70s. The exception will be parts of the eastern Ozarks which should stay south of the cold front for most of the day. Highs in the mid to upper 70s will be possible in these areas, although those readings will be reached during the late morning or early afternoon as the front and afternoon convection will likely cool temperatures off after 18-19Z. While some of the afternoon storms across the Ozarks could produce some gusty winds, severe storms are unlikely with deep layer shear at only 15-25kts and relatively low MUCAPE in the 500- 1000 J/Kg range.

Scattered convection will likely continue tonight in the vicinity of the front as 850mb flow turns to the south and southwest producing weak to moderate moisture convergence. Increasing low level southerly flow will also begin to push the front back to the north before sunrise, so temperatures are expected to steady out and may even rise a degree or two between 10-12Z. Lows bottom out in the low to mid 50s in most locations Saturday morning, with temperatures as cold as the mid to upper 40s across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Low level warm advection continues Saturday as the front drifts back to the northeast through the day. Temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 70s in most locations behind the warm front. While convection remains possible through the day due to low level moisture convergence, mid-upper level ridging moves over Missouri and Illinois which will likely limit areal coverage.
Continued lack of instability and shear makes severe storms very unlikely.

Carney

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The weather pattern continues to look active into next week.
Guidance shows a persistent trough moving over the West Coast late Saturday into Sunday. Trough digs into the Desert Southwest where it remains until the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Meanwhile an upper level ridge stalls over the eastern U.S. which plants the Mississippi Valley in deep southwest flow. Several short waves eject from the base of the trough Sunday through Wednesday in the southwest flow, each one producing a surface low which moves from the Plains northeast into the Midwest. The cold fronts associated with these lows never quite make it through our area, but guidance shows several rounds of convection triggered by the fronts moving east into our area Sunday through Thursday. 500mb EOF patterns from the LREF cluster analysis are indicating uncertainty in both the timing and amplitude of the short waves as they move across the country. This therefore lends to uncertainty in the timing and potential strength of the waves of convection through the period.
The deep southwest flow should keep temperatures well above normal in the mid 70s to mid 80s Sunday through Thursday, although convective debris could suppress temperatures on any day. NBM temperature IQRs reflect this with a range of 5-8 degrees. The LREF shows a smaller range most days around 4-5 degrees. Severe thunderstorm chances for our area appear to be highest on Wednesday when the southwest wave finally ejects into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. The deterministic GFS shows SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/Kg with 50-60kts of 0-6km shear. There's also severe potential on Tuesday with similar amounts of CAPE, though less shear at 30-40kts across parts of northern into central Missouri. However, the GFS is also showing enough CINH over our area Tuesday afternoon to potentially interfere with convective initiation, which suggests the best chance for storms may be farther north and west of our area.

Carney

AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A cold front will move from northern Missouri southeast through the area today into early evening. Winds will turn to the north- northwest as the front passes and VFR ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR behind the front with areas of IFR this morning.
Additionally, there are areas of fog north of the front, but it's unclear how far south the fog will spread this morning, or how low the visibility will drop before daytime heating causes the fog to dissipate. Ceilings and visibilities will improve to VFR across most of the area by mid to late afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible today, primarily across central Missouri this morning, and spreading along and south of I-70 this afternoon and evening as the front continues south. Lower ceilings are likely again late this evening and overnight as the front stalls, and then begins drifting back to the northeast.

Carney

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.