Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holiday Shores, IL

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:07PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:06 PM CST (03:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:42AMMoonset 10:52PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holiday Shores, IL
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location: 38.94, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 190257 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 857 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 839 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Have dropped the western half of the advisory. We have had reports up to 0.8" of snowfall across Missouri earlier before the band of snow moved into Illinois. This band has now quickly moved into the eastern CWA now that the vort max vort has moved into central Missouri. Radar is showing that the most intense precipitation is falling as rain, with lighter snow falling back to the northwest over the advisory area. Expect this snow to move out of the area in the next few hours as the vort continues to move east and may cancel the advisory early if this trend continues.

Otherwise introduce areas of fog later tonight into tomorrow morning across parts of southeast and central Missouri where last few SREF/HRRR model runs have been consistent in visibilities falling below 1 mile in these areas late tonight. Will hold off on issuing an advisory at this point, but will need to watch the trends overnight.

Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks on target and made few changes.

Britt

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 233 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Main short term issue is snowfall potential the remainder of the afternoon through the evening associated with a clipper low- amplitude short wave currently located across the central Plains. The anticipated band of precipitation has been slow to develop thus far but a combination of regional radars and surface obs are showing there has been an uptick in the last hour or so. The combination of large scale ascent associated with the short wave and largely mid level frontogenetic forcing should allow the band to continue becoming better organized the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. Evaporative cooling is supporting snow within the band across western MO, and this trend should continue as the band spreads east into the evening. That said the initial temperatures ahead of the band are in the middle to upper 30s. I think these initially warm temperatures, combined with somewhat warm ground temperatures, and the fast system motion is going to limit accumulations. Probably through the remainder of the afternoon it will be hard to get accumulations on much other than elevated or grassy surfaces, and then after sunset the potential of getting at least some accumulation on roads will increase. That area would be from eastern MO into southwest IL. The axis of the band looks like it should be near a Moberly-Vandalia-Litchfield line and a narrow band of up to an inch of snow is possible, mainly on the eastern half of this axis. Accumulating snow should be east of the area by midnight. I have removed some of the far western counties out of the advisory, not that I don't think it will snow there, but I am not expecting any meaningful impacts before the snow ends by early evening.

Clouds and seasonably cold temperatures will dominate on Tuesday with the area remaining in northwest flow aloft and the next short wave looking to pass to the north of the area.

Glass

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 233 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Heights aloft are on the rise Wednesday and this combined with a return of south-southwest low level flow and WAA should bring a return of warmer temperatures/above normal that will continue into Thursday. A cold front will then push through the region on Thursday night ushering a return of seasonably cold winter temperatures for Friday and Saturday as a expansive surface high pressure system moves into and dominates the area.

The deterministic and ensembles indicated a pattern change will occur heading into this weekend with an active split flow. The southern stream appears to be the more dominate of the streams with a closed low developing along the west coast, an upper low near Lake Winnipeg, and increasingly west-southwest flow aloft over the Nation's midsection. The next threat of precipitation could occur as early as late Saturday night into Sunday with return flow and WAA which could include wintry precipitation at the onset before the low level warm. Still pretty far out and a good deal of uncertainty in the details at this time range.

Glass

AVIATION. (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 533 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Band of light rain and snow will affect the St. Louis area terminals early in the period with MVFR visibilities before moving east. Then dry weather is expected the rest of the period. MVFR ceilings are expected at the St. Louis area terminals through the night before lifting by 12Z Tuesday. KCOU will see MVFR ceilings develop this evening that will continue through Tuesday afternoon, with some potential for IFR ceilings late tonight into Tuesday morning. KUIN will have mainly VFR conditions through tonight, with MVFR ceilings moving in late Tuesday morning and afternoon.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

A band of light rain and snow will affect the terminal early in the period with MVFR visibilities before moving east of the terminal by 02Z. Low clouds with MVFR ceilings are expected to persist at the terminal from early evening through 12Z Tuesday. Then mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected, though there remains a low possibility for MVFR ceilings to move back into the airport during the late morning and early afternoon on Tuesday.

Britt

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Bond IL- Fayette IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL.



WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL3 mi77 minN 610.00 miOvercast34°F34°F100%1019.3 hPa
St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO23 mi73 minN 310.00 miOvercast36°F33°F89%1019.1 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO23 mi76 minN 59.00 miLight Rain Snow38°F33°F83%1019.9 hPa
Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL23 mi72 minN 04.00 miLight Snow33°F32°F98%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALN

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Last 24hrW10NW7W4W6W7SW5W7W8W6SW4CalmSW55W9SW9SW9SW7SW5SW5SW5CalmCalmN6NE5
1 day agoW6W8W8W8W9W10W7W7W8NW6W10W8W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.