Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holiday Shores, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:39PM Monday December 9, 2019 6:40 PM CST (00:40 UTC) Moonrise 3:15PMMoonset 4:18AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holiday Shores, IL
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location: 38.94, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 092355 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 555 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 320 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

The cold front as of 2100 UTC is located near a KPOF>>KSAR>>KMTO line and continues to move southeastward. In its wake, expect a sharp temperature drop (~20 degrees within 3-4 hours) and gusty northwest winds. Sustained winds should be about 15-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph. These blustery winds combined with temperatures falling into the 20s and 30s will make it feel more like the teens and twenties by late this evening. In other words, it will feel much more like winter. Behind the front, upstream radar imagery depicts some scattered echoes aided by weak midlevel frontogenesis. However, surface observations show that nearly all of this echo is not reaching the ground due to a dry layer between 600 and 850 hPa. If this layer can saturate sufficiently, we may see a few very light rain showers or sprinkles. Also, patchy drizzle is being observed within the first few hours behind the frontal passage and this should continue heading toward the early evening. By late this evening, strong low-level dry advection should cutoff any threat for precipitation reaching the ground areawide.

A seasonably cold night is on tap and elected to cool overnight lows across the bi-state area several degrees from the previous forecast. This change was predominantly due to upstream observations in the teens and twenties already as close as central Iowa. Lows tonight should range from the mid teens to mid twenties from northwest to southeast, which now are more in line with the 1200 UTC MAV/MET MOS numbers.

Seasonably cold and dry conditions are forecast to continue through the remainder of the short-term forecast period. A secondary system is expected to develop along the cold front moving through the mid south which is expected to bring a round of rain changing to snow. However, this system should stay well to the south of the area with the only impact being a continued stream of thicker cirrus clouds, mainly across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois through Tuesday.

Any lingering cirrus should depart southern sections of the CWA by Tuesday evening, leaving a mostly clear sky for a majority of the night. Another cold night should be on tap due to light/variable winds associated with a surface high, low dewpoints, and the aforementioned mostly clear sky. Leaned toward the cooler MET MOST guidance for lows Tuesday night, especially across favored valleys in east-central and southeast Missouri.

Gosselin

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 320 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

(Wednesday - Saturday Night)

Surface high pressure maintains control across the CWA through Wednesday night with seasonably cold temperatures continuing along with dry weather. Temperatures are still expected to moderate for the end of this work week as 850-hPa temperatures warm to near +5C. Highs Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the 40s to near 50 degrees, with lows Wednesday and Thursday night in the 20s to low 30s.

Models agree that a midlevel shortwave trough and a weak cold front should move across the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday into early Saturday. This system may produce some light precipitation, mainly in the form of a cold rain as temperatures both at the surface and aloft appear too warm to support snow.

(Sunday - Next Monday)

This is a potential time period of interest as deterministic guidance suggests the next system to eject out of the Rocky Mountains will have enough cold air to produce snowfall north of the track of the surface low. Not surprisingly, ensemble members of the GEFS and the EPS are quite dispersive with respect to the track, timing, and strength of this system. However, there is a decent signal for at least some accumulating snowfall associated with this system. This is evidenced by a majority of the GEFS/EPS members showing snowfall within or near the CWA sometime between Sunday and next Monday. At this early juncture, the northern CWA would be favored based on the ensemble means of the GEFS/EPS. In addition, the location of the shortwave trough entering the CONUS (southern Oregon/northern California) along with weak midlevel ridging developing downstream suggest a track of the midlevel impulse toward the northern or northwestern CWA.

Given all of the uncertainty mentioned above, leaned with a blended approach, which resulted in chance PoPs for a rain/snow mix, with more snow wording the farther north you go and for Sunday night/Monday morning. Temperatures should cool behind the first system moving through on Saturday, so expect a return to slightly below normal values.

Gosselin

AVIATION. (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

MVFR cigs are expected to clear KCOU by the time the TAF is valid, while at KUIN, these low cigs shud hold on just a bit longer. The remainder of the TAF period is expected to be VFR and dry. NW winds with gusts around 25 kts or so will slowly diminish overnight, decreasing to around 10 kts by Tues morning.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Drizzle has come to an as well as IFR cigs. Expect cigs to continue to move SE and clear terminals early this evening with the remainder of the TAF period being VFR and dry. NW winds with gusts around 25 kts will slowly diminish overnight with NW winds remaining around 10 kts thru the day Tues.

Tilly

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL3 mi1.8 hrsWNW 20 G 2810.00 miOvercast and Breezy43°F42°F100%1007.1 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO23 mi50 minWNW 13 G 2610.00 miOvercast41°F34°F76%1010.1 hPa
Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL23 mi46 minWNW 16 G 237.00 miOvercast38°F35°F90%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALN

Wind History from ALN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS14S11S15S15S6S8S7S9S8S9S7S8S5S6S10SW6SW4S6SW4W10W9W9NW20
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1 day agoSE6SE7SE7SE7SE9SE4SE6CalmSE4S8S9S12S12S11S12S12S12S11S12S12
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S14SE12
2 days agoN4N3N3CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalm33SE6SE6SE7S54SE7E7SE6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.