Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holiday Shores, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:26PM Thursday July 16, 2020 12:39 PM CDT (17:39 UTC) Moonrise 1:20AMMoonset 3:55PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holiday Shores, IL
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location: 38.94, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 161733 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

(Through Tonight)

A surface low early this morning was located in northwestern Indiana with a cold front draped southwestward through the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This front is expected to slow its progress equatorward early today, before stalling out across Arkansas into the mid south. Further north in our neck of the woods, the sensible weather should be controlled by a weak surface high pressure. This anticyclone should help promote plenty of afternoon sunshine after early morning fog evaporates and stratus advects and lifts east of the Mississippi River. The airmass which has filtered into the area is certainly cooler and drier than yesterday behind the cold frontal passage of last evening. Nothing anomalous for mid July, but seasonable levels of humidity and afternoon high temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees isn't too bad for a midsummer's day.

Some increase in cloudiness is expected tonight across portions of southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois as the stalled front should drift at least slightly north toward the Missouri-Arkansas border. However, the boundary should stay far enough south to yield a dry night areawide with low temperatures dropping into the mid 60s to low 70s.

(Friday)

Models suggest that the front should continue to migrate northward on Friday, though guidance is divergent with the specifics. Some models suggest this front largely washes out as it heads northward while others keep it more coherent. In addition, the current MCS across the south-central Plains is likely to spawn an MCV which should migrate eastward with time. This feature (if it can maintain its identity) may help initiate thunderstorms along the retreating warm front on Friday. Not a high confidence forecast by any means, but did want to keep low PoPs roughly focused near the boundary for Friday. The uncertainty with the frontal position/timing and possible thunderstorms also lends itself to question marks for high temperatures and associated heat index values. The most likely solution is that storms do not have too much of an effect unless they develop early enough in the day and are more widespread than currently forecast. Some warming and moistening at the surface is likely with high temperatures mostly in the low 90s. Those values combined with dewpoints climbing back into the low to mid 70s are expected to yield peak heat index values across portions of central, east-central, and southeast Missouri at or slightly above 100 degrees. While magnitude heat advisory criteria (105F+) is not out of the realm of possibility on Friday afternoon, it appears unlikely, particularly for anything widespread.

Gosselin

LONG TERM. (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

(Friday Night - Sunday)

The focus for this weekend remains on dangerous heat and humidity. Confidence is increasing that this weekend will be the most oppressive conditions so far this summer. The highest heat index values of 105-110F are likely on Saturday due to the combination of high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Sunday will be nearly similar, but may feel a tick or two lower as afternoon dewpoints drop ever so slightly. Unlike Friday, not seeing too much in the way that will prevent this heat from happening this weekend. While there is some weak signal for some storms near the retreating warm front east of the Mississippi River, they look to be mainly diurnally driven and likely isolated in nature. Regardless, it certainly looks very hot and humid across the entire area.

Speaking of high temperatures early next week, there is increasing consensus in deterministic and ensemble model guidance of a cold front dropping down toward the region sometime early next week. The key will be how strong the trough is moving across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. At this point, continue to have my doubts that any cold front will make it through the CWA given the upper air pattern and climatology, but it should get at least close enough to increase chances of showers and thunderstorms. The airmass overhead also shows signs of cooling slightly toward the end of the extended forecast, with the GEFS/EPS mean 850-hPa temperatures back to near to slightly above normal. Bottom line, the preponderance of the evidence suggests at least some modicum of cooling in the Monday-Wednesday time frame, but exactly how much will depend on how far south the front ultimately gets. For now, went with a gradual cooling trend with highs mostly in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Regarding the possibility of heat products, it appears at least an advisory beginning Saturday is becoming increasingly. However, there is still time to further pin down the details on the area and length given lesser confidence in forecast high temperatures early next week. In addition, the type of product (advisory vs. warning) could be in question as 4 days in a row of 105+ heat index values are possible for portions of the area Saturday through Tuesday. The area with the better chance of observing excessive heat warning criteria due to duration appears to be from in and around the St. Louis metropolitan area into portions of southwest Illinois.

Gosselin

AVIATION. (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

VFR conditions are expected through the period at all terminals.

A compact system is expected to track west to east from the Kansas and Oklahoma border into southern Missouri late tonight and early Friday morning. This will nearly parallel a stalled surface front inches northward through Friday midday. Mid to high clouds will stream off thunderstorm development, but impacts will largely stay well south of the terminals through the next 24-36 hours.

Maples

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL3 mi50 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F69°F74%1019.3 hPa
St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO23 mi46 minNE 610.00 miFair82°F68°F63%1018.4 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO23 mi49 minNNE 510.00 miA Few Clouds82°F68°F63%1018.4 hPa
Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL23 mi45 minNNW 610.00 miFair0°F0°F%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALN

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1 day agoSE8SE8SE9E9SE11SE10SE5SE5SE5SE5SE4CalmSE5CalmE5E5E5SE6E4E6SE7SE8SE9SE11
2 days agoE5SE5E5E4E7E5E5E5E5E5E4E6E3E3E3CalmNE3CalmE545SE8SE8SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.