Holiday Shores, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holiday Shores, IL

June 17, 2024 1:00 PM CDT (18:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM
Moonrise 3:26 PM   Moonset 1:23 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holiday Shores, IL
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 171724 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be another hot day with heat index values ranging from 95-103. There is a chance for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and south of the I-44 corridor (20- 40%).

- Summer-like temperatures will continue Tuesday through the weekend with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances (20-30%).



SHORT TERM
(Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Water vapor imagery shows that mid-level ridging and high pressure has begun to dominate the eastern CONUS with southerly low level flow into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This deep southerly flow favors warm and moist air to be transported into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley through at least midweek.

There is agreement in the deterministic guidance that a weak mid- level vorticity maximum, currently seen in water vapor imagery over northeast Louisiana, will round the mid-level high and traverse across far southeast Missouri and southern Illinois this afternoon.
With the abundant available low-level moisture, this area will be the focus of diurnally-driven scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Deterministic model soundings are indicating DCAPE values 1000+ J/kg, SBCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/km. This favors pulse thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and heavy downpours.

Today will be another hot and humid day amidst deep southerly flow, however not as hot as yesterday. Dewpoints across the area are forecast to be in the upper 60s - low 70s. These high dewpoints combined with highs in the upper 80s - mid 90s will keep heat index values between 95-103 degrees area wide. The main factor for temperatures not being as hot as yesterday is that guidance is hinting at increased mid-level cloud cover with the passing vorticity maximum. Another factor that would keep high temperatures on the "cooler" side is the shower and thunderstorm potential across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Should an area see a shower and thunderstorm, expect for high temperatures to be suppressed. Despite the slightly less warm temperatures today, it is important to still take necessary heat precautions such as taking frequent breaks if outside and drinking plenty of water.

Tuesday will be another hot day with highs in the mid 80s - low 90s in the persistent deep southerly flow. Deterministic guidance is in agreement that additional weak vorticity maxima will round the mid- level high Tuesday afternoon and evening and be the focus for another chance (20-30%) of diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
Similar to today, areas that see a shower or thunderstorm could see highs on the "cooler" side.

MMG/Glass

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

There is agreement among guidance that hot temperatures will continue Wednesday onward as the mid-level high retrogrades westward through Saturday. As it shifts westward, there will be periodic chances (20-30%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms associated with the rounding of additional vorticity maxima around the high.
The areas that will see these chances for convection will be across north-central and northeast Missouri on Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances diminish even more on Thursday and Friday as surface high pressure dominates the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and favors dry conditions. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s through the end of the work week and with convection chances decreasing Thursday and Friday, temperatures will rebound into mid to upper 90s area wide.

By late Saturday, ensemble guidance is in consensus that a mid-level trough will traverse across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
As it propagates east-southeastward into Sunday, a surface cold front will move across the region and be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty in the exact timing of convection as there are timing and amplitude differences amongst deterministic guidances of the trough and thus the cold frontage passage.

MMG/Glass

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. The only exception will be around the St. Louis terminals where isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, but the potential is too low at this point to include in the TAF. Otherwise winds will remain out of the south through the period with gusts out of the south to 20 knots during the day.

Britt

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KALN ST LOUIS RGNL,IL 4 sm70 minSSE 10G1710 smPartly Cloudy91°F72°F53%29.97
KSET ST CHARLES COUNTY SMARTT,MO 23 sm66 minSSE 0710 smA Few Clouds93°F70°F47%29.94
KSTL ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL,MO 24 sm69 minS 12G2110 smA Few Clouds93°F68°F44%29.96
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St. Louis, MO,




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