Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elsah, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:40PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 3:23 AM CST (09:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:44PMMoonset 8:10AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elsah, IL
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location: 38.94, -90.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 010433 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1033 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

Currently, an upper-level trough is digging across the eastern United States with the Middle Mississippi Valley on its western periphery and under northwest flow. Disturbances within this flow brought us our early morning flurries and cloud cover, and this activity has now shifted to be primarily located over central IL. Low-level northwesterly flow has advected a notably cooler airmass into the CWA, as current temperatures in the mid-30s are as warm as we're going to get. As the trough and associated surface low continue to push eastward this evening, the flurries over IL will diminish, clouds will dissipate, and winds will die down. Under these clear, calm skies, temperatures will drop into the low-20s to upper-teens for overnight lows - some of the coldest air the CWA has seen so far this season.

For Tuesday, the Middle Mississippi Valley will be between systems - the previously mentioned trough to the east and another trough digging into the Great Plains. During this period, a weak ridge will build over the CWA and dry low-levels will keep skies mostly clear. This will allow afternoon temperatures to rebound about 5-10 degrees warmer than what will have been experienced Monday.

Elmore

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

On Wednesday, our attention turns to a trough digging southward across the Great Plains. A shortwave and associated low will approach the CWA from the west/southwest. As the low approaches late Wednesday into Thursday night, the chance of rain will ramp up primarily across central and southeastern MO. During this portion of the period, thermal profiles aloft will be conducive for snow, but the limiting factor for surface accumulation will be surface temperatures. The current forecast calls for temperatures bottoming out around the freezing mark across central and southeastern MO early Thursday morning before increasing into the mid- to upper-30s as the morning progresses. Additionally, ground temperatures will most likely be above freezing. With QPF values being low, the surface low occluding, and the expected surface temperatures, snow that does fall will lead to total accumulations of only a couple tenths of an inch across portions of central and southeastern MO. The chance of precipitation will dwindle as Thursday progresses and the surface low weakens and pushes eastward.

For Friday through the end of the period, deterministic guidance varies on the exact phasing of an eastern trough; however, this guidance keeps the Middle Mississippi Valley under northwest flow aloft. Outside of a few members of the GEFS and EPS, most ensemble guidance keeps the CWA dry during this time, and mean ensemble values have temperatures around climatological norms. While the spread among members of the GEFS and EPS is around 10 degrees, the distribution is clustered around the mean with few outliers, so I have confidence in the current forecast values.

Elmore

AVIATION. (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

Broken low-end VFR stratus will linger above the St. Louis metro terminals overnight before gradually scattering and exiting the area by sunrise. Prevailing dry, clear, and VFR flight conditions are anticipated at all terminals Tuesday, but a few upper- level clouds could begin to overspread the region Tuesday night. Winds will be light throughout the period.

Pfahler

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO3 mi30 minW 410.00 miFair27°F19°F72%1020.5 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO12 mi33 minWNW 410.00 miFair24°F17°F75%1021.3 hPa
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL17 mi49 minWNW 610.00 miFair25°F21°F88%1020 hPa
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO24 mi30 minW 410.00 miFair21°F16°F81%1021.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSET

Wind History from SET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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--NW10NW8NW7NW8W7W6W5W5W4
1 day agoE4E4E3E6E3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3W4NW8NW15NW14
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW4SW5S5S5S6S6S7S7CalmNE4NE4CalmNE4CalmE3NE3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.