Monday, June1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elsah, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:22PM Monday June 1, 2020 10:21 PM CDT (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 2:08AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elsah, IL
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location: 38.94, -90.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 020220 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 920 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 914 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

A couple light showers have popped up over southern Illinois and east-central Missouri driven by low level WAA and a weak mid-level disturbance passing through the region. A few drops of rain might manage to make it through the dry low-levels to hit the ground, but otherwise athe showers are expected to continue moving south out of the area. The remainder of the night will be dry under partly cloudy skies with lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

MRM

SHORT TERM. (Through Wednesday Evening) Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Welcome to Meteorological Summer! The focus for this discussion will be above normal temperatures early this week and then thunderstorm chances from Wednesday through the end of the work week.

A large upper level ridge centered across the Plains will continue to edge east toward the Mississippi River Valley the next 24 hours. Almost as if on cue, temperatures will rise well above normal and feel much more like summer tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the 90s. Have leaned on the warmest guidance, which is at or above the 90th percentile. There will also be a marked increase in humidity as dewpoints rise into the 60s, making the apparent temperature closer to 95 degrees in the urban heat island of St. Louis.

A shortwave will move across the northern Plains and upper Midwest toward the Great Lakes Tuesday night, sending a cold front south into the area by Wednesday afternoon. SPC has highlighted the entire cold front from the Plains to the mid Atlantic in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms during this period. Given the robust CAPE (+2000 J/KG) believe chance PoPs are in order for thunderstorms, but the lack of shear (GEFS plumes depicting less than 20kts of 0-6km bulk shear) should limit organization and the primary threat will be severe wind gusts with any outflow (cold pool) dominated convection. I would expect initiation during the afternoon (peak heating) across the northern CWA with a steady shift south through the evening to the I-70 corridor.

CVKING

LONG TERM. (Wednesday Night through Next Monday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Unfortunately, the front never makes it south of the CWA and meanders aimlessly Wednesday night through Friday across the Midwest. Convective trends are increasingly difficult to determine as placement of the effective boundary and other mesoscale details will ultimately determine the highest probability of measurable rainfall. Have therefore maintained chance PoPs through the end of the work week given the uncertainty.

The temperature forecast for the end of the week will be highly dependent on cloud/precipitation. Generally have forecast persistence with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Extended ensemble guidance favors the upper level ridge reasserting itself across the Plains and into the Midwest this weekend and early next week with a dry forecast in tact. A larger than normal spread in temperature guidance is noted as the exact placement of the ridge axis will be key to any backdoor cold fronts that attempt to drive south on the eastern edge of the aforementioned ridge. Regardless, it appears that above normal temperatures can be expected for this period with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

CVKING

AVIATION. (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue across the area terminals under the influence of the surface high that is retreating to the east. Winds will continue to veer through the period, becoming southwesterly by Tuesday morning.

MRM

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO3 mi27 minS 610.00 miFair76°F60°F58%1017.7 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO12 mi30 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F57°F48%1017.8 hPa
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL17 mi31 minS 610.00 miOvercast72°F59°F65%1019 hPa
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO24 mi27 minS 610.00 miFair76°F59°F56%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSET

Wind History from SET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE7SE3E5E4E4E6E7SE4SE8S9S11S10S10SE10S7S12
G16
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1 day agoW3NW3W3CalmN6NE10NE5NE6NE6NE6NE6Calm34N7E5CalmN7N53--E6E6E6
2 days agoN7N7N5N7N5N5N4CalmCalmCalmNE6NE5N4N66N7
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N7--N6N6NW6NW4NW3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.