Wednesday, August21, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Elsah, IL

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:49PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:22 PM CDT (01:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 10:53AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elsah, IL
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location: 38.94, -90.37     debug

Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 212352
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
652 pm cdt Wed aug 21 2019

Short term (through late Thursday afternoon)
issued at 332 pm cdt Wed aug 21 2019
the main issue tonight and into the first part of Thursday morning
will be the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding. The
deterministic models are in rather good agreement with the
synoptic and mesoscale features indicating a favorable set-up
evolving this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to blossom by
mid-late evening along the mo portion of the i-70 corridor in
response to lift associated with the migrating short wave trof
currently stretching across southeast nebraska, and an increasing
west-southwesterly llj. The LLJ will result in a broad region of
lift along a slowly advancing west-east front and will be
augmented by divergence aloft associated with the entrance region
of an ULJ attendant with the upper trof stretching through the
great lakes. This set-up will be favorable for waves of thunderstorms
training in an axis stretching from eastern ks through central
and eastern mo into southwest il. High pw's in excess of 2 inches
and good inflow CAPE will support high rainfall rates with the
strongest storms. Given the persistence expected to be centered in
the 02-12z time frame, heavy rainfall is expected along with
potential for flash flooding. Ballpark rainfall amounts of 2-4
inches are anticipated with locally higher totals. The focus and
corridor of showers and storms is expected to sag into southern mo
and southern il by mid morning on Thursday associated with the
sagging front and or effective boundary. Overall forcing by mid
morning should also be weakening. A broad flash flood watch has
been issued within the aforementioned time frame 00-15z
encompassing the region with the highest heavy rain and flood
potential centered along the i-70 corridor.

As far as severe weather - there remains a threat mainly this
evening and probably within the first few hours of the above
described scenario as storms tap the strongest cape. I don't think
the threat will be widespread but a few large hail and wind damage
events will be possible between 02-06z.


Long term (Thursday night through next Wednesday)
issued at 332 pm cdt Wed aug 21 2019
by Thursday evening the front has moved out of the cwa. The main
band of showers and thunderstorms are slowly ushered out of the
area Friday morning by a surface high building in over the great
lakes region.

Through Friday the upper level low associated with the
departing cold front lifts out and the upper flow becomes dominated
by a short wave ridge. The models show little consensus in resolving
the location of the short wave ridge, yet there is confidence that
small disturbances will propagate across the region on Friday. While
the main axis of precipitation associated with the front will be
well south of the cwa, a stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out on Friday in our southern CWA where the column remains
moist. Post cold frontal temperatures will be cooler than normal
Friday through Sunday, though how much cooler will depend on the
persistence of widespread cloud cover.

The surface high persists through Sunday, keeping the missouri-
illinois area mostly free from precipitation over the weekend. By
the end of Sunday an upper level trough begins to dig into the
region. As this trough moves across the great plains and into the
upper mississippi river valley Monday into Tuesday, it brings
another frontal passage and our next best chance of rain. The
pattern shift back to an approaching trough also brings a return of
seasonal temperatures.


Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 629 pm cdt Wed aug 21 2019
focus will remain the tsra threat for tonight. Expect tsra to
develop mid to late this evening. While there should be a few
storms impacting kuin and the going forecast may have storms
ending too late, the focus should be on kcou. Have added a tempo
group for when greatest threat of tsra is currently expected, but
this may need to be extended with updates. Otherwise, expect MVFR
cigs to develop as rain comes to an end. These CIGS should linger
through much of the day at kcou, but drier air should advect into
the kuin region lifting CIGS in the morning.

Specifics for kstl ksus kcps: as mentioned above, focus will be
tsra threat for overnight. Still expect tsra to develop this
evening. Have added a tempo group for greatest threat for storms,
but this may need to be extended with updates. Otherwise, expect
MVFR CIGS to develop as the rain ends and should linger through
much of thurs. Expect redevelopment on thurs to remain south of
terminals, however, this remains more uncertain.


Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... Flash flood watch through Thursday morning for audrain mo-boone
mo-callaway mo-cole mo-crawford mo-franklin mo-gasconade mo-
jefferson mo-lincoln mo-moniteau mo-montgomery mo-osage mo-
pike mo-saint charles mo-saint francois mo-saint louis city
mo-saint louis mo-sainte genevieve mo-warren mo-washington

Il... Flash flood watch through Thursday morning for bond il-calhoun
il-clinton il-fayette il-greene il-jersey il-macoupin il-
madison il-marion il-monroe il-montgomery il-randolph il-
saint clair il-washington il.

Wfo lsx

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO12 mi91 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F70°F59%1013.2 hPa
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL17 mi95 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F84%1015.2 hPa
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO24 mi88 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F72°F61%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSET

Wind History from SET (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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