Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elsah, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:40PM Thursday December 12, 2019 8:25 AM CST (14:25 UTC) Moonrise 5:18PMMoonset 7:30AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elsah, IL
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location: 38.94, -90.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 121137 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 537 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

Surface analysis early this morning is showing that a warm front has moved north of St. Louis. Consequently, temperatures are warmer than the have been the past few mornings with readings in the 20s under increasing high clouds. These clouds were occurring ahead of a weak shortwave trough currently over the Central Plains. The weather is expected to remain dry through early tomorrow as the atmosphere is dry through a deep layer. Highs today will climb into the upper 40s and lower 50s given the relatively warm start and the warm air advection. Lows tonight will stay near freezing. There will be slight chance of rain over northeast Missouri on Friday afternoon in advance of a trough that will be digging into the Midwest. Highs again on Friday are expected to be above normal.

Britt

LONG TERM. (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

Still appears that a upper trough will drop down across Missouri and Illinois on Friday night into early Saturday with the GFS/ECMWF bringing the attendant cold front across the CWA late Friday night and Saturday morning. Will continue with a chance for a light wintry mix with this system as strong cold air advection moves in behind the front. Still expecting little if any snow/ice accumulations with at this point as the model forcing fields are relatively weak and QPF amounts are light.

Guidance temperatures from both the GEFS/ECMWF ensembles continue to fall below normal behind the front. There continues to be a considerable amount of uncertainty with the trough that will move across the area early next week. The individual ensemble members of the GEFS and ECMWF EPS continue to show a notable range in solutions from north to south. This includes the 00Z operational GFS which brings the surface low track across the center of the CWA on Monday that would bring accumulating snow in the northern CWA and thunderstorms in the southern CWA. The latest GEFS brings its surface low across northern Arkansas into the Ohio Valley and the ECMWF EPS is just south of it. I do have increasing confidence that we will see precipitation Sunday into Monday night, so have increase PoPs during this period. Precipitation type is still in question as it may still be rain/snow or a wintry mix depending where you are with some accumulation possible.

Tuesday into Wednesday still looks dry as large surface high moves into the Midwest under deep dry layer. Forecast plumes from the GEFS mean and the CIPS analogs support below normal temperatures.

Britt

AVIATION. (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 531 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

LLWS remains the primary concern into mid-morning, with weak southerly winds at the surface and strong southwesterly winds between 1500-2000 feet. The surface winds will begin to pick up later this morning, resulting in a more uniform wind profile in the lowest 2000 ft, ending the LLWS threat. Otherwise, broken to overcast cirrus will briefly give way to mostly clear skies before more mid and high clouds move into the area this evening and overnight.

BSH

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO12 mi34 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F25°F60%1028.5 hPa
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL17 mi35 minSSE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F28°F75%1028.1 hPa
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO24 mi31 minS 710.00 miOvercast42°F24°F49%1027.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSET

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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.