Elsah, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elsah, IL

April 23, 2024 4:04 AM CDT (09:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM
Moonrise 6:49 PM   Moonset 4:56 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elsah, IL
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 230811 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 311 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak cold front brings a round of showers across the area today. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible. Overall rainfall amounts will be light.

- A shift back toward warmer and more unstable weather is expected later this week. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible, some of which could be severe, although the timing and intensity is still uncertain. The most likely periods for thunderstorms will be Friday and Sunday.



SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A trough moving through the Great Lakes today will send a weak, rather ill-defined cold front southward through our area today.
Ahead of this front, an area of moist advection at about 700MB will lead to a round of showers developing and tracking through the region. In the low levels we remain pretty moisture starved, but the moist advection aloft will be enough to generate at least some light rain. The first batch of moist advection moves east across northern Missouri into Illinois later this morning. Some showers and thunderstorms are already evident on regional radar across Nebraska and northwest Missouri and this will translate eastward this morning. Instability is pretty meager and entirely elevated, so while we could see some rumbles of thunder we do not expect strong storms today.

While the first batch of showers moves east this morning, another round develops ahead of the front across central and southern Missouri into southern Illinois this afternoon. Again we're seeing some meager instability aloft which could lead to some rumbles of thunder especially in the initial activity, but we are not expecting strong storms. Most areas will only see a few hundredths of rain today, but areas that do get locally heavier downpours could see more than 0.25 inch. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals, a bit cooler to the north where clouds and showers are there to start the day, while warmer to the south where at least some sun is expected before the showers arrive.

Our brief shot of moisture ends quickly with the passage of the front this evening. Winds turn to the north and a slightly cooler and drier air mass moves in for Wednesday. We should see more sunshine but highs likely top out a few degrees below normal, mostly in the 60s.

Kimble

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The main focus in the long term is on the return of moisture to the region and the chances for severe thunderstorms which will accompany it. Ridging moves out of the Rockies and through the Plains this week with a trough moving onshore in southern California. As the ridge moves east we'll see our temperatures rise back above normal through the weekend. With a persistent lee trough in the High Plains this week we'll see a continual resurgence of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward through the Plains and eventually spilling into our area as well. With this moisture will come greater atmospheric instability as well, and with the passage of a few shortwave troughs and related frontal features we'll see chances for thunderstorms increase late this week and this weekend. There will certainly be periods in which instability and shear parameters line up for organized thunderstorms and severe weather, but whether that threat materializes in our forecast area is more in question. The greatest threat time periods for our area look to be Friday and Sunday.

Moisture returns to the area in the form of a warm front lifting northeast Thursday night into Friday morning. This will be our first opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. With this being the initial surge of moisture, the thunderstorm threats would likely be centered around large hail depending on the magnitude of the instability available (it could be elevated ahead of the front).
It's a bit less clear at this point how much activity will redevelop in the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. A rather robust shortwave trough will be tracking out of the Rockies and through the Central to Northern Plains on Friday. Much of the synoptic scale forcing with this passes by to our north, but there will likely still be a belt of moderate to strong instability beneath a weakening cap further south. Thunderstorm initiation could focus in the vicinity of the dryline or trailing cold front mainly across Oklahoma and Kansas, but potentially advecting eastward into our area as well. There will be a greater all hazards severe weather threat with this activity as instability is more likely to be surface based in the presence of moderate deep layer speed and directional shear. The greatest uncertainty is on forcing to focus convective initiation and thence where it will move.

On Saturday in the wake of the departed shortwave trough we will see at least brief shortwave ridging. The cold front in the wake of the departing wave is unlikely to make it into our area, so we'll remain in the moist air mass. With more sun we'll likely see our warmest temperatures of this air mass on Saturday when much of the area reaches the mid 80s. The combination of the moist air mass and strong heating will lead to strong surface based instability developing, but it will be occurring beneath a capping inversion making it unlikely that we will be able to generate convection in our area. NBM PoP is lowest on Saturday as a result, but may still be too high owing to some timing differences in the models and the relatively poor resolution of the longer range models. To our west, though, another shortwave trough crosses the Rockies on Saturday.
The resulting surge of moisture northward will result in renewed thunderstorm development along the remnant front to our northwest as well as along the dryline in Oklahoma and Kansas. Some of the convection in northwest Missouri could spread into parts of our area as well Saturday evening, with the greatest potential across the northwestern part of our forecast area. The severe weather threat with this will likely be decreasing as it arrives into the overnight hours.

As this trough moves northeast toward the Great Lakes on Sunday it will send a cold front southeast behind it. Additional thunderstorm development along this front is possible during the day on Sunday and would present another all hazards severe weather threat considering the unstable air mass ahead of it and the available shear. This likely represents the period in which we could see the greatest threat for severe weather in our area, but it's still unclear whether it will focus in our area or just outside. Models are still trying to resolve the timing of this wave and the associated frontal features, and as a result there is considerable variability in where convective initiation occurs on Sunday. It's possible this could be focused more to our west or even to our southeast depending on the speed of the trough and front.

Despite the passage of a cold front Sunday into Monday, we won't see temperatures drop all that much behind it. The main trough has its origins in the Pacific so the air mass behind it is not particularly cold and ridging builds back in quickly behind it. We should, though, get at least a couple days break from the moisture and threat for thunderstorms.

Kimble

AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are likely for the majority of the current TAF period. The main focus is on the potential for showers or a rogue thunderstorm with the passage of a front. There could be some brief MVFR ceilings as this moves through from north to south during the day, but most will remain VFR. Winds begin out of the southwest ahead of the front, but become more westerly and then northwesterly behind it.

Kimble

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KSET ST CHARLES COUNTY SMARTT,MO 3 sm70 minS 0710 smClear55°F36°F47%29.93
KSTL ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL,MO 13 sm73 minSW 12G1710 smMostly Cloudy57°F34°F41%29.96
KALN ST LOUIS RGNL,IL 17 sm29 minSSW 0810 smClear55°F37°F51%29.96
KSUS SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS,MO 24 sm70 minSSW 0810 smClear55°F36°F47%29.94
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St. Louis, MO,



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