Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cape May Point, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:30PM Friday July 10, 2020 12:45 PM EDT (16:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:01AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1128 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Today..N winds 40 to 50 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers early in the afternoon. A chance of tstms late.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms until early morning.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1128 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Tropical storm fay will continue to work its way northward near the coasts of delaware and new jersey today, and into eastern new york and western new england tonight. Behind the system, another area of low pressure is forecast to drag a cold front through the region on Saturday night. An additional disturbance is forecast to move through the region Monday into Tuesday before high pressure builds across the eastern u.s., ushering in drier conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape May Point , NJ
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location: 38.95, -74.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 101626 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1226 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Fay will continue to work its way northward near the coast of New Jersey this afternoon, and into eastern New York and western New England tonight. Behind the system, another area of low pressure is forecast to drag a cold front through the region on Saturday night. An additional disturbance is forecast to move through the region Monday into Tuesday before high pressure builds across the eastern U.S., ushering in drier conditions.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Tropical Storm Fay was centered about 25 miles east of the Delaware Beaches at noon. The center is forecast to move northward along the New Jersey coast this afternoon and through the New York City metropolitan area this evening.

We continue to expect the main threat in our region to be heavy rain. Widespread totals in the 2 to 4 inch range are anticipated with locally higher amounts. Our entire forecast area is under a Flash Flood Watch.

Winds along the coast will gust in excess of 40 MPH. Meanwhile, the wind gusts in northeastern Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania should peak generally in the 25 to 30 MPH range.

There remains the potential for an isolated weak tornado or two in the coastal counties of New Jersey as the storm works its way northward due to the increased shear in that area.

The rain will end gradually from south to north during the afternoon and evening hours.

High temperatures should favor the 75 to 80 degree range.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Tropical Storm Fay will be quickly heading north across New England Saturday morning thanks to an approaching shortwave from the west. This shortwave looks rather potent for this time of year with both the ECMWF and GFS showing a ~40 m height fall/rise couplet across the Mid-Atlantic Saturday afternoon. This wave will also begin to eject to the northeast Saturday afternoon and take on a negative tilt. This will place northeastern NJ in a RRQ. Wind profiles are also interesting with SFC to 6 km bulk shear values around 30 kts. Hodographs do show a veer-back-veer profile which wouldn't be extremely helpful for updrafts. Instability wise, ML CAPEs are forecast to be around 2000 J/kg (NAM) with maximum values over the NJ Coastal Plain. Given the instability, shear, and lift mentioned above there is a threat for severe threat. Storm mode with this appears to start out as discrete due to mean wind and bulk shear vectors being out of the southwest in a modestly wide warm sector. It appears by late Saturday afternoon into evening modest surface convergence might form near PA/ NJ which would favor more clustering as bulk shear vectors would be oblique to the boundary.

Threat wise, damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard as dry air in the mid-levels remains consistent across both GFS and NAM forecast soundings. Surface delta theta-e values are around -25 which is rather favorable. A secondary threat would be hail if storms remain discrete longer. High temperatures Saturday will be in the low 90s as 850 mb temperatures are around 20 degrees C.

Saturday night into early Sunday morning the shortwave will eject northeast with a weak cold front moving through the area. Convective coverage will also quickly wane Saturday evening as daytime heating is lost.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Sunday morning the shortwave from Tuesday will be over New England with a long wave trough axis remaining centered over the Ohio Valley. Sunday afternoon, most of the area will likely stay dry in the wake of Saturday's departing shortwave. Another shortwave located over Lake Michigan Sunday morning will rotate through the base of the trough axis Sunday evening helping to initiate another round of showers and thunderstorms. Finally on Monday the long wave trough axis will start to translate east as a strong upper level low over western Canada slowly heads east. This eastward movement will bring a final shortwave southeast across the Great Lakes region towards the Mid-Atlantic. The wave will cross the area Monday afternoon finally bringing a slow end to the precipitation from west to east. PWATs behind the wave will be around 1.20", but dewpoints will only slightly fall off. 850 mb temperatures also stay around 15 degrees C, so high temperatures Monday and Tuesday remain in the upper 80s.

Tuesday into Wednesday the wave will head northeast towards New England with weak subsidence occuring in its wake. The latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS show a weak wave diving southeast on the back side of the trough axis, but think precipitation chances are limited here. The main reason for this is the dry air.

Wednesday into Thursday, rather zonal flow sets up over the region as mid-level ridging builds across the southeastern United States, with a potent mid-level low located near the Hudson Bay. This in general, would favor below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. A slightly stronger ridge, or weaker upper level low would alter the forecast correspondingly drier or wetter. Expect high temperatures in low 90s Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon . Mainly MVFR/IFR conditions expected with periods of heavy rain. Scattered thunderstorms are possible. Northeast winds around 10 knots at KABE and KRDG and 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots near the coast. Generally moderate confidence with low confidence on timing and location of thunderstorms.

Tonight . Mainly MVFR conditions expected with possible improvement to VFR after 06Z. Chance of showers through this evening and patchy fog possible overnight. West to southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence with low confidence on timing of improving conditions.

Outlook .

Saturday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions possible. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Saturday Night . Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions possible early. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected. Light west to southwest winds. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. West-southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday Night . MVFR or lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms overnight. Patchy fog possible. Light southwest winds. Moderate confidence.

Monday . Patchy fog may linger into the morning hours. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions possible. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday Night . Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions possible early. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected. Light southwest winds will turn west and then northwest overnight. Low confidence.

Tuesday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions possible. West to southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. Conditions have deteriorated on the Atlantic coastal waters and lower Delaware Bay as Tropical Storm Fay continues to affect the area. There will be tropical-storm force winds with rain/squalls and occasional lightning moving gradually northward. The threat for waterspouts exists today given high to extreme low-level shear and marginal instability.

Winds are likely to remain in the small craft advisory category on Delaware Bay, so the advisory remains in place here.

Conditions are expected to improve slowly this evening and tonight, as rain will become more showery and flow will become offshore on the south side of the system. Tropical storm force winds/gusts may linger for much of the night, though a trend downward with time should be expected.

Seas will range from 6 to 10 feet on our ocean waters with locally higher wave heights. There will be only a gradual decrease as the system departs.

Outlook .

Saturday . Seas may linger around 5 feet for much of the day, but winds will likely become sub-advisory. A chance of storms.

Saturday night through Tuesday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected. A chance of afternoon/evening storms, primarily on Monday and Tuesday.

Rip Currents . Conditions have deteriorated due to Tropical Storm Fay. With rough seas and a longer-period southeasterly swell, the threat for the formation of dangerous rip currents is high today. The flow will become somewhat offshore in the wake of the system on Saturday, though winds will become more southerly/southwesterly by afternoon. With seas remaining elevated and residual swell from the tropical system, at least a moderate risk of rip currents is anticipated for Saturday.

HYDROLOGY. Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Fay will cause flooding today. Expected rainfall is from 2 to 4 inches with local amounts up to 6 inches possible.

One hour flash flood guidance values across south and central New Jersey are between 2-3 inches while across the Lehigh Valley the values are as low as 3/4 of an inch. With the tropical air mass moving in, several of the CAMs are indicating the potential that may be exceeded. While the 6 hour flash flood guidance is between 4 to 6 inches, the 7-day percent of normal precipitation plot from AHPS showed a few areas in southern NJ and the Delmarva Peninsula with 200 to 400 percent of normal rainfall.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. With Tropical Storm Fay moving slowly northward today near/along our coast, a period of stronger onshore flow will occur to the north of the cyclone center. Though this would often be concerning for the potential of coastal flooding, a number of factors are mitigating a more substantive threat to the coast. First, the lunar cycle is out of phase with the event, which results in tidal departures of 2+ feet required for minor coastal flooding. Second, the developing tropical storm is not intensifying quickly (and will likely plateau as it moves northward into colder and colder waters today) and is moving reasonably steadily. Given these factors, onshore flow will not be especially strong for long, so any associated surge should be minimal (i.e., generally less than 2 feet).

Nevertheless, we are a little concerned models are underplaying the tidal departures for tonight's high tide (the higher of the two astronomical tides in the next 24 hours). A transition to offshore flow will likely begin around this time, but this is usually not enough time to counter the effects of antecedent onshore flow. As a result, our latest forecast is well above model guidance for tonight's high tide, but still short of minor flooding criteria. Future adjustments are likely based on observations/model trends this morning.

One other consideration: Flow will likely develop a southerly fetch on Saturday as Fay departs to our north/northeast. This may result in higher water levels on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay during the weekend. However, once again, we are not currently forecasting tidal departures sufficient to produce flooding in these areas. This will require close monitoring with future updates, though.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ . Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001- 007>010-012>020-026-027. Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ021>025. High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ012>014-020-022>027. DE . Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001. Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for DEZ002>004. High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. Tropical Storm Warning for DEZ003-004. MD . Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008. Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ012-015- 019-020. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430.



Synopsis . Haines Near Term . Iovino Short Term . Haines Long Term . Haines Aviation . Meola Marine . CMS Hydrology . WFO PHI Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 1 mi46 min NE 11 G 16 74°F 76°F1003.1 hPa (-3.4)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 8 mi46 min N 35 G 40 1003.6 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi46 min NNW 24 G 37 74°F 75°F1004 hPa (-2.2)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 33 mi46 min 74°F 1006.4 hPa (-3.3)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 41 mi46 min 76°F 76°F1005.9 hPa (-3.5)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 43 mi46 min NNW 21 G 27 73°F 76°F1004.3 hPa (-0.0)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 49 mi76 min N 20 74°F 1008 hPa73°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ6 mi50 minENE 15 G 198.00 miOvercast76°F73°F94%1003.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS11SE10SE11S13S10SE10SE12SE7SE7SE6SE7S7SE3E4SE5E3CalmCalmE3E6E6E7E9E10
2 days agoSE8S9SE10S18S10S9S10S10S10S8S7S6S7S8S7S5SE7SE3SE4S5SE6SE9S7S10

Tide / Current Tables for Cape May Point, Sunset Beach, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Cape May Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:45 AM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:16 PM EDT     4.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.15.34.942.81.60.70.40.61.32.23.244.44.33.72.91.91.10.80.91.62.43.5

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:38 AM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:50 PM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:45 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.1-0.5-0.9-1.1-1.2-0.9-0.40.10.6110.70.3-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.30.20.71

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.