Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Slaughter Beach, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:17PM Monday January 27, 2020 9:42 AM EST (14:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:02AMMoonset 8:00PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 930 Am Est Mon Jan 27 2020
Rest of today..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ400 930 Am Est Mon Jan 27 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure over the gulf of saint lawrence will slowly shift eastward through tonight. A weak cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will build into the region for the middle and latter portion of the work week. Coastal low pressure may affect the area over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Slaughter Beach, DE
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location: 38.95, -75.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 271428 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 928 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence will slowly shift eastward through tonight. A weak cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will build into the region for the middle and latter portion of the work week. Coastal low pressure may affect the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Vertically stacked low pressure will drift over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence today. The feature is expected to pull a mid level short wave trough over our region from the northwest this afternoon. We are anticipating a fair amount of cloud cover for today, with some sizable breaks possible at times.

Highs are expected to favor the 40s in our region. Readings should not get above the 30s in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and far northern New Jersey, where scattered snow flurries are possible. A west wind around 10 to 15 mph is forecast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. The upper low will move little through tonight while the sfc high remains well to the west across the northern Plains states. A continuation of dry weather with a little above normal temperatures for tonight. Occasional cloudiness and a couple snow showers far N/W. Lows will be seasonably chilly with mid/upper 20s across the N/W and upper 20s/low 30s S/E. These lows are roughly 4 to 6 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Overview .

The going theme remains the same for the week ahead. High pressure and quiet weather look to dominate the bulk of the week, before things potentially turn more active towards the weekend. At upper levels, the pattern for most of this week has an El Nino feel to it, though we are not in an El Nino and ENSO has appeared to have little influence on this winter. But in what would be a typical El Nino pattern, a strong and active subtropical jet will yield multiple troughs swinging through the southern tier of the country this week. Meanwhile, anomalously high heights and above normal temperatures will be present over southern Canada. We will sit seasonable in the middle, and with expansive high pressure near and north of us, dry weather will reign (not rain). By the end of the week, things start to reshuffle. Ridging looks to build in over the western US as upper level flow across the Pacific, which has been very zonal of late, starts to become more amplified. This will drive a trough into the Great Lakes region, with multiple shortwaves likely to be present in the broader cyclonic flow by Friday and into the weekend. It is a fairly classic synoptic pattern for the development of coastal low pressure, but as usual at a time range of 5 to 7 days ahead there is high uncertainty in how the smaller scale features will interact with one another. In an otherwise quiet week, we will have ample opportunity to key in on the weekend as it draws closer, but for now just continuing to mark it as a period to watch for unsettled weather.

Dailies .

Tuesday-Thursday . Cyclonic flow aloft continues into Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front and a couple of weak upper level disturbances which will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Tuesday will again feature scattered to broken cloud cover (especially to the northwest) ahead of these features, with more sunshine for the remainder of the week. Once the front moves through by early Wednesday morning, high pressure builds in and dominates the weather through at least Thursday. The air mass in this high pressure regime is continental polar, but Arctic air continues to be lacking. Near seasonable 850mb temperatures throughout this stretch combined with dry air will yield daytime highs near to slightly above average but overnight lows near to slightly below average due to good radiational cooling. Overall, when taken on top of the similar conditions Sunday and Monday, you will rarely find a more tranquil stretch of weather for this duration at these latitudes during this time of year.

Friday . The weather for Friday starts to fade into the haze of uncertainty that only grows stronger by the weekend. There is still some support for the idea that the same pattern of dry weather and high pressure from the midweek period will hold through Friday. However, some guidance also indicates we may turn unsettled by Friday, potentially in the form of an inverted trough near the coast and/or an upper level shortwave moving in from the west. Temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer on Friday as weak low level warm advection starts to develop.

Next weekend . Guidance is struggling to key in on the tracks and phasing, or lack thereof, of several shortwaves moving into the eastern third of the country. With more meridional flow developing over the CONUS, the subtropical jet remaining strong, and the polar jet awakening from its hiatus, we will at least have some players on the field capable of producing a storm system by the weekend. However, the consistency of solutions has not really improved at all since when I was looking at it last night, so there is not much new to add here. The very latest deterministic trends from tonight are to keep low pressure development mostly offshore, but am still waiting for any multi- cycle trends that would indicate guidance is starting to get a better handle on things, and so far that has not happened. So the weekend remains a period to watch, but too early for any details. Carried chance PoPs both Saturday and Sunday. Still expecting temperatures are going to be marginal at best for frozen precip especially to the east, as we continue to lack readily available Arctic air, but thermal profiles are even more uncertain than low tracks and precip distribution.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today . VFR conditions are expected with SCT-BKN cloudiness from time to time. CIGS will be 040-060 mostly. Winds will be mostly West at around 10-12 knots, some gustiness will develop during the late morning and into the afternoon with some G18-20 kts possible. A couple snow showers across the higher elevations N/W possible.

Tonight . More of the same with occasional VFR CIGS and NW winds 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook . Tuesday-Wednesday night . VFR. Northwesterly winds generally 5 to 10 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt possible during the day on Tuesday. Winds turning light northerly on Wednesday night. High confidence.

Thursday-Thursday night . VFR. Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt on Thursday becoming light and variable Thursday night. High confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR, but MVFR is possible especially southeast of PHL and especially later in the day due to rain showers. Winds light and variable. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Low pressure well NE and high pressure well NW will keep a moderate flow across the waters today. The air temperatures will be close to the water temps, so mixing will be limited. Winds will be mostly 10 to 15 knots with some gusts around 20 knots at times. We anticipate sub-SCA today with fair weather. Tonight, mixing increases somewhat with the colder temps on the waters. Winds could approach SCA conditions after midnight, but confid in this is not the best and our neighboring offices are holding on SCA flags tonight. We will just cap the gusts at 22 kts for now. More fair weather expected.

Outlook . Tuesday . Low end SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters and lower Delaware Bay for most of the day on Tuesday as winds gust to about 25 kt. Conditions should drop below SCA levels by evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Tuesday night-Friday . Quiet conditions expected on the waters. Sub- SCA conditions are forecast through this period. Northwest winds could gust to 20 kt from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds turning more northerly then northeasterly and decreasing for the remainder of the period. Seas 1 to 3 ft.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.



Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Iovino Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . O'Brien/O'Hara Marine . O'Brien/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 11 mi61 min WSW 17 G 18 44°F 1009.7 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 15 mi55 min WSW 4.1 G 8 41°F 42°F1009.9 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 19 mi55 min WSW 14 G 18 40°F 42°F1009 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 25 mi61 min WSW 12 G 14 40°F 42°F1009.3 hPa
OCSM2 44 mi163 min 2 ft
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi61 min 38°F 40°F1008.3 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 45 mi61 min W 7 G 8 40°F 43°F1011.3 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 46 mi61 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 38°F 44°F1008.8 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 47 mi53 min WSW 14 G 18 42°F 48°F3 ft1007 hPa (+0.3)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi61 min SSW 6 G 8 38°F 41°F1010.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi61 min WSW 7 G 9.9 40°F 40°F1009 hPa

Wind History for Brandywine Shoal Light, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE16 mi1.8 hrsSSW 710.00 miOvercast38°F29°F71%1009.5 hPa
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE17 mi49 minSW 610.00 miOvercast40°F33°F77%1010.1 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ22 mi47 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast42°F32°F68%1009.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDOV

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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W8SW5W13W8SW5W5W4SW4SW6SW4SW8SW5SW5S3S7SW8SW7SW9
1 day agoSE11
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SW14W8W9W10NW8W4SW4W4SW5SW5W5W5W7W5SW5SW5SW5SW5W6
2 days agoNE8E9E13E11E14E14E9E10E12
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Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:34 AM EST     5.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:19 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:00 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:53 PM EST     3.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.41.40.4-0.1-0.10.51.634.24.954.53.62.51.30.4-00.10.71.82.93.73.9

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:28 AM EST     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:09 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:20 AM EST     1.46 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:32 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:00 PM EST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:53 PM EST     1.14 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.8-1.1-1-0.7-0.10.51.11.41.410.4-0.3-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.2-0.7-0.10.511.10.90.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.