Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Slaughter Beach, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:40PM Friday December 6, 2019 7:33 AM EST (12:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:52PMMoonset 1:20AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 624 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw late in the evening, then becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
ANZ400 624 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak cold front will move across the east coast today. High pressure will build across the mid atlantic and northeast states Saturday and Saturday night, before shifting offshore on Sunday. A warm front is expected to lift northward across the area on Monday, followed by a cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure builds back across the mid atlantic region Thursday into Thursday night, before shifting offshore through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Slaughter Beach, DE
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location: 38.95, -75.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 061131 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 631 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will move across the east coast today. High pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states Saturday and Saturday night, before shifting offshore on Sunday. A warm front is expected to lift northward across the area on Monday, followed by a cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure builds back across the Mid Atlantic region Thursday into Thursday night, before shifting offshore through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 630 am update: Hourly temperatures were a little warmer than forecast, so made some adjustments for the next few hours. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion .

Potent trough that brought some lake-effect precipitation all the way to the northern CWA on Thursday is finally moving off the coast early this morning. Descent on the upstream side along with nocturnal decoupling (aided by an approaching surface ridge) has aided in the dissipation of lower clouds, with temperatures falling quickly the past few hours. However, the lower clouds will return this morning as the next northwest-flow shortwave trough digs southeastward into the Northeast. An attendant surface low will migrate eastward through New York today, with a southwestward- extending cold front approaching the area this afternoon. Though this system is fairly moisture- starved, do expect a few showers to develop along and in advance of the front today via fairly stout large-scale lift. Best chances look to be during the afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be quite light, and temperatures will be warm enough for rain, except possibly the Poconos and vicinity.

With warm advection in advance of the approaching system, temperatures should be a little warmer today, though this will be tempered by increasing/lowering cloud cover. Generally have max temps about 5 degrees warmer than Thursday's values. Winds will diurnally swing upward this afternoon, aided by an increasing surface pressure gradient as the low to our north makes its closest approach to the CWA. A few gusts of 20 to 25 mph or so can be expected this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/. The aforementioned cold front will move through the area this evening, switching winds to northwest (perhaps gusting for a bit around the time of frontal passage). Showers (scattered and light in nature) may occur near the time of frontal passage, with best chances along/southeast of the urban corridor given anticipated location of the front. The front should move offshore around/after 06z with skies rapidly clearing upstream. Though winds should diminish somewhat overnight, they will probably remain elevated enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions. As such, kept temperatures fairly close to consensus and continuity, which are not too different than the readings being observed this morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Quiet weather begins the long term period over the weekend, then unsettled weather returns for the beginning of next week, then quiet weather returns for the end of next week.

High pressure builds across the area later in the day Saturday then centers itself across the region Saturday night, before shifting offshore on Sunday. This will keep dry weather in the forecast Saturday through Sunday. Winds may be a little gusty at times Saturday morning, as well as during the day Sunday, but gusts should remain mostly 15 to 20 mph, with occasional high peak gusts around 25 mph.

As we move into Sunday night, a warm front is expected to be lifting north toward the area, then lift across and through the area during the day Monday. At the same time, there will be multiple short wave/vorticity impulses moving across the area starting late Sunday night and continuing through Monday night, even once the warm front lifts through the area. With enhanced moisture across the area, this is expected to lead to several possible periods of enhanced rainfall chances across the area through Monday night. If any precipitation starts early enough Sunday night while temperatures a cold enough, a brief wintry mix may be possible for portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey before changing to all rain.

Then as we move into Tuesday, a cold front is expected to move across the area later during the day into the evening. This will lead to another period of enhanced rainfall chances, especially during the afternoon and evening. PW values will likely exceed 1.00 inches and approach 1.25-1.50 inches Monday-Tuesday, so there could be period of moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

The cold front will have moved offshore by Wednesday morning, then our area will be under the influence of strong northwest flow. Wind gusts are expected to increase to at least 20 to 30 mph with occasional higher gusts around 35 mph possible. Lake effect snow showers will likely be ongoing through the day to our north across New York and northern Pennsylvania where the steepest lapse rates and enhanced moisture will be located. The low-mid level flow will likely keep the showers to our north, but there is still a slight chance if the flow turns a little more south some lake effect showers could make it down into our area.

The chance for showers cuts off by Thursday as high pressure builds across the area, so dry weather is expected for Thursday into Thursday night.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mainly VFR with CIGs lowering to around 5000 feet by afternoon. Cannot rule out a passing shower during the day, but any impacts would be minimal. Winds west or southwest around 10 kt with perhaps a few gusts to 20 kt or so. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR with any CIGs rapidly dissipating overnight after cold-frontal passage this evening. Winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt, perhaps a little stronger in the evening. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday-Sunday . VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds Saturday shift to the northeast Saturday night, then southeast and south on Sunday. Winds may gust around 15-20 knots at times Saturday and Sunday. --High confidence.

Sunday night . Conditions may lower to MVFR later in the overnight ahead of a lifting warm front. South winds may shift to southeast late in the night. --Moderate confidence.

Monday-Tuesday . An extended period of MVFR and IFR conditions likely as periods of rain move across the area. Southeast winds early Monday become southwest once a warm front lifts across the area Monday. Winds shift to the northwest behind a cold front later Tuesday into Tuesday night. --Moderate confidence.

MARINE. After a lull in winds that should last much of the morning, expecting south to southwest winds to increase rapidly around midday, with advisory conditions expected to return on the Atlantic waters this afternoon. It is not out of the question that gales are observed, but the regime is not climatologically favorable for gales (harder to reach in pre-frontal southwest flow versus post-frontal northwest flow) and model soundings are fairly marginal both in terms of magnitudes of gusts and duration. As a result, issued another small craft advisory beginning at noon today. A cold front will move through the waters this evening/tonight, switching winds to northwest. This may be the best timing for a few gusts to reach marginal gales, but confidence is too low to issue a warning at this time. Winds should diminish slowly late in the night, so the advisory expiration time is 6 am Saturday.

For Delaware Bay, expecting mostly sub-advisory winds today (though a few gusts to 25 kt or so may occur this afternoon). However, as the front moves through this evening, expecting a few hours of marginal advisory conditions with the switch to northwest wind directions and favorable channeling effects. Therefore, issued a small craft advisory for lower Delaware Bay from 9 pm this evening to 6 am Saturday.

Seas may approach 5 feet late this afternoon into this evening near the time of frontal passage.

Cannot rule out a few showers near the front late this afternoon into this evening. These showers may be accompanied by stronger/erratic gusts.

OUTLOOK .

Saturday-Sunday night . Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Monday-Tuesday . Small Craft Advisory conditions likely as winds and seas increase as a warm front lifts across the area Monday, then a cold front moves across the area Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ431.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . CMS Short Term . CMS Long Term . Robertson Aviation . CMS/Robertson Marine . CMS/Gorse/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 11 mi82 min 1022.5 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 15 mi64 min SSW 5.1 G 7 33°F 45°F1022.5 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 19 mi64 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 35°F 44°F1021.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 25 mi64 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 38°F 46°F1021.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi64 min 33°F 43°F1020.8 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 45 mi64 min W 5.1 G 6 38°F 48°F1023.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 46 mi64 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 34°F 46°F1021.4 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 47 mi44 min W 1.9 G 3.9 45°F 54°F1 ft1020.4 hPa (+0.3)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi64 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1 35°F 43°F1022.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi64 min Calm G 1.9 30°F 42°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Brandywine Shoal Light, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE16 mi38 minS 510.00 miFair30°F22°F75%1022.3 hPa
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE17 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair28°F25°F88%1022.6 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ22 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair29°F26°F89%1022.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDOV

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
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Fri -- 01:20 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:23 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:56 AM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:35 PM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:18 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.82.83.6443.732.21.40.90.711.72.63.54.14.13.83.22.41.50.80.4

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:03 AM EST     0.92 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM EST     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:24 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:26 PM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:52 PM EST     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.80.90.80.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.20.20.60.90.90.60.2-0.3-0.7-0.9-1-0.8-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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