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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 800 Pm Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of rain this evening.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 knots.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 knots.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 knots.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 knots.
Mon..NW winds around 5 knots.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 knots.

PZZ500 800 Pm Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
a cold front over the north central coast will continue to move southeastward tonight. Elevated seas between 12 and 15 feet will persist through late week as a series of long period northwest swells propagate through the waters, resulting in hazardous conditions for small crafts.

FXUS66 KSTO 072122 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 122 PM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

Synopsis
Periods of rain showers with moderate mountain snow and locally gusty winds expected into this evening. Patchy Valley fog may develop Friday morning. Expect breezy northerly winds for portions of the Valley Friday. Drier conditions and increasingly cold temperatures are expected Friday into the weekend.

Afternoon radar imagery shows a band of precipitation tracking across portions of the Sacramento Valley and into the northern Sierra and southern Cascades. Precipitation amounts over the last 24 hours have ranged from 0.10-0.50" in the Valley, with generally 0.50-1" over the mountains. Some Caltrans webcams show snow covered roads this afternoon, including Lassen Park.

Additional snowfall of around 2 to 6 inches are possible at pass levels, with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches. Snow levels will remain around 4,000-4,500 feet. Heaviest snow is still expected through around 6 pm PST, with hourly snowfall rates up to 0.50-1" per latest NBM and HRRR. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 10 PM PST tonight for the southern Cascades and the Northern Sierra Nevada, including I-80 and Hwy 50. Along with the snow, gusty winds will continue over higher terrain, and when coupled with snow could bring poor visibility at times.

Hi-Res models indicate that shower activity across the Valley should be tapering off around the evening commute, with snow showers lingering into the evening hours over the mountains. If winds remain light, patchy dense fog may develop across portions of the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys Friday morning. The HRRR suggests a 30-60% probability of visibilities less than one quarter mile for those areas.

Drier conditions return Friday into the weekend as upper ridging builds in behind the departing system. A few showers may develop across portions of Shasta County Sunday as a disturbance brushes by to the north Sunday, but little to no precipitation is expected. Breezy northerly winds develop Friday into Saturday morning, with gusts up to 15-30 mph along the west side of the Sacramento Valley.

Otherwise, cold morning lows with areas of frost are forecast over the weekend as Valley lows drop into the low to mid 30s. NBM suggests a 30-80% probability of low temperatures of at least 32 degrees Saturday, and a 30-45% probability Sunday morning. Take the necessary precautions to protect pets, plants, and people from the cold.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...
Cluster analysis continues to show a shortwave slated to move over interior NorCal Monday, developing into a weak "inside slider" forecast pattern for early to mid week. The shortwave trough deepens into the Great Basin area with ridging developing over the Pacific NW through the northwest CA coast Tuesday.
Cluster do show some uncertainty on the amplitude of the trough pattern. Nonetheless, gusty north to east winds still look to be a safe bet for late Tuesday morning, persisting through early Wednesday morning. EC ensemble meteograms depict 15 to 25 MPH wind gusts at Redding and Blue Canyon over this period, increasing confidence of there being breezy conditions. Overall, the pattern continues to look dry with warming temperatures over northern CA.
Confidence for anything past Wed. still is low as models struggle to show a clear signal on the ridge's progression and a potential low moving into the Pacific NW.

AVIATION

Areas of MVFR conditions possible in showers across portions of the Valley until 02z Friday. MVFR with areas IFR/local LIFR over the mountains until 06z Friday. Snow levels 4000-4500 feet.
Areas of southerly winds gusts up to 20 kts in the Valley until 00z Friday, then increasing northerly winds after 15z Friday.
Local southwesterly wind gusts up to 40 kts over higher terrain until 03z Friday. Areas MVFR with local IFR/LIFR in BR/FG from KSMF southward possible after 08z Friday.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

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