Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Cape May, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:29PM Sunday July 12, 2020 2:46 PM EDT (18:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:29AMMoonset 12:56PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 101 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers late.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of tstms early in the afternoon. Tstms likely late.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Tstms likely early in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 101 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak front will stall just offshore the mid-atlantic coast today before shifting westward back toward the region tonight and Monday. Meanwhile, a surface low in the central plains will progress toward the region on Monday before lifting northeast to the canadian maritimes on Tuesday, finally forcing the front well offshore. High pressure will build into the eastern u.s. For much of the rest of the week; however, a backdoor cold front may approach the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. A weak cold front may affect the northeast late this week into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Cape May, NJ
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location: 38.97, -74.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 121559 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1159 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front will stall just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast today before shifting westward back toward the region tonight and Monday. Meanwhile, a surface low in the central Plains will progress toward the region on Monday before lifting northeast to the Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday, finally forcing the front well offshore. High pressure will build into the eastern U.S. for much of the rest of the week; however, a backdoor cold front may approach the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. A weak cold front may affect the Northeast late this week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The cold front that moved offshore last night has stalled out, while a secondary cold front/surface trough will approach the area from the west today. The front offshore is expected to shift back toward the coast as the other front moves eastward, eventually merging together. An area of low pressure is expected to develop to our southwest this evening and move along the boundary and across our area tonight. A couple of short waves/vorticity impulses will move toward the area later this afternoon into tonight. With enhanced moisture across the area, this expected to lead to a chance of showers beginning late this afternoon, and continuing into this evening and overnight hours. CAPE values are forecast to build to as much as 1,000-1 J/kg later this afternoon into this evening, so some thunderstorms will be possible, as many of the CAMs are indicating mainly between 4 pm - 10 pm. However, shear is only 25 knots or less, mid level lapse rates are less than 6 C/km, so severe weather is not expected. Although DCAPE values approach 700-800 J/kg, so if any thunderstorms do develop, some stronger gusty winds could occur. PW values will range between 1.5-1.75 inches, so heavy rainfall will also be possible.

The main change for today so far has been in increase to cloud cover as daytime cumulus has begun to pop up. Otherwise, no other changes have been made.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Overview .

Challenging forecast for the beginning of the new week owing to unusually poor agreement in short range guidance as to the timing of a frontal system Sunday night into Monday. Synoptically, troughing will be present over the Great Lakes and Northeast during that time period. A cold front will extend southward from a weak area of low pressure moving through southern Ontario and will be approaching the mid-Atlantic. In addition, a shortwave disturbance will rotate from south of the Great Lakes early Sunday night to overhead of us on Monday, likely interacting with the frontal system as it does so and potentially yielding a weak surface wave of its own. The front will then move offshore at some point on Monday, but it could be as soon as the morning or as late as the evening.

The timing of the cold front and the Great Lakes shortwave, and the interactions between these two features, will determine the forecast details for Sunday night and Monday. One or two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely over the region at some point during that time, but confidence is low as to their timing, location, and impacts.

Beyond that system, the trough over the East begins to shift east and lift out, with weak high pressure building in behind it. Another fairly vigorous shortwave swings through New England on Tuesday, but looks a bit too far northeast to threaten us with any rain chances. Additional height rises are expected Wednesday as the first stages of eastern US ridging begin to develop, setting the stage for warmer and more humid weather later in the week.

Dailies .

Sunday night-Monday . This looks to be an unsettled period of weather, but will emphasize again that confidence on details is low. It will not be raining this entire time by any means, but difficult at this point to do much better than varying levels of chance PoPs through the period. Best thinking is a mainly dry start to Sunday night as we remain ahead of the systems to our west. As the night goes on, rain chances will increase, especially to the west, but cannot rule out activity moving in further east as well.

For the daytime Monday, think the most likely scenario is a lull in activity at some point in the mid-morning and early afternoon, with renewed convective development by mid-afternoon especially in the eastern half of the region. This assumes the front remains over or just west of us. If the front is fast enough and reaches the coast by around noon, it's possible Monday afternoon and evening could be mainly dry everywhere, but most guidance argues against this.

There are several scenarios on the table for this period with varying levels of potential impact. On the whole, it is not an overly concerning setup, but there are a couple of things to watch for. We certainly remain vulnerable from a hydro perspective given recent excessive rains. If any portion of this event were to drop a quick inch or two of rain, especially over vulnerable areas, we could have flash flooding concerns as FFG remains very low. As little as an inch of rain in an hour or two will cause flash flooding in some areas. Some guidance, though certainly not all, suggests this is possible. Severe weather is somewhat of a concern as well, but that would mainly be an issue in a slower timing scenario in which the front does not move through until late in the day Monday. SPC SWODY2 has introduced a marginal risk of severe weather for this potential, with damaging winds the main threat with any storms.

Monday night-Wednesday night . The remainder of this period looks quiet. Any convection during the day on Monday should give way to a dry and cooler night as the cold front moves offshore. Weak high pressure then begins to build in as the trough lifts out. Tuesday in particular looks like a beautiful day with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s and tolerable humidity behind the front. May see a good deal of low 60s for lows in the suburbs on Tuesday night, which will be a "windows open" night for sure. A couple degrees warmer and slightly more humid on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, dew point values will climb back towards 70, signaling the return of the true higher humidity air. Dry weather expected through this stretch.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The medium-range period looks fairly unsettled, as a shortwave trough moves into the Northeast on Thursday but lingers owing to downstream ridging Friday into the weekend.

At 12z Thursday, a surface low is expected to be moving through the eastern Great Lakes vicinity. The attendant shortwave trough will lift east-northeast into southeast Canada and the Northeast, with some deamplification expected owing to strong downstream ridging in the western Atlantic. The associated cold front should weaken as it approaches the northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday night into Friday. Deterministic models are also in a fair amount of disagreement regarding the timing of the front.

The general idea is that the chances for convection should be increasing by the end of the week, with at least diurnal convection possible on Thursday in advance of the approaching front, followed by increased chances some time between Thursday night and Friday night as the front moves through the area. Depending on the timing of the shortwave trough and the proximity of the cold front, some of the convection could be strong owing to substantial instability likely to develop in the warm sector (so long as mitigating effects of convective debris are limited).

There are indications that the front will hang up somewhere close to the region by the weekend, which is unsurprising owing to broad subtropical ridging to the south and east. Subsequent perturbations in the established quasi-zonal midlevel flow will likely initiate more rounds of convection in vicinity of the front. Thus, some hydrological concerns exist with the developing pattern, pending some model consistency on the eventual placement of the front.

The overall pattern also remains warm and humid, with highs expected to be about 3 to 8 degrees above seasonal averages and lows about 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages through the period. Notably, I trended high temperatures down a bit for this portion of the forecast, as the increased chances of convection will probably play some role in limiting diurnal heating in many areas on most of these days.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers/storms to the west of PHL (outside chance of affecting RDG/ABE), but most terminals should be dry. Light west winds becoming more southwesterly or southerly by late in the day. A sea breeze may affect ACY/MIV with a quick switch to south/southeast winds, and the usual switch to south/southeast winds is also likely at ILG by late in the day as well. High confidence.

Tonight . Very low confidence forecast. There is at least some chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight, especially northwest of PHL, but model variability is unusually large. Coverage and timing are quite uncertain, so have not mentioned in the TAFs for now. Conditions should be predominantly VFR outside of any precipitation, though some lower CIGs may develop around daybreak as a front approaches the area. There is also a chance lower CIGs and/or patchy fog develop(s) along the coast, possibly affecting MIV/ACY late. Light southerly winds becoming light and variable.

Outlook .

Monday . Expecting VFR to be prevailing. However, multiple opportunities exist for locally sub-VFR conditions. Patchy fog, low clouds, and showers are possible in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms are then possible again in the afternoon and early evening mainly from PHL eastward. Any showers and thunderstorms should end during the evening. Winds mainly from the southwest at 5 to 10 kt, becoming more westerly later in the day. Low confidence.

Monday night-Wednesday night . Mainly VFR. A light northwest flow with afternoon sea breezes is expected on Tuesday, then light east or southeast flow Wednesday with light and variable winds during the overnight periods. Winds mainly 10 kt or less through the period. High confidence.

Thursday . Mainly VFR. However, increasing chances of showers/storms during the afternoon, with brief local restrictions likely. South winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory winds/seas expected through tonight. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt will likely become more southerly by afternoon, possibly approaching 20 kt at times. Seas generally 3 to 5 feet through tonight.

Two sensible weather concerns: There is a slight chance of showers/storms tonight, though the better chances are on land. Additionally, not out of the question some lower clouds or fog develop tonight as dew points gradually increase.

Outlook .

Monday-Monday night . Seas on the Atlantic coastal waters Monday into early Monday night will run around 4 ft and may approach 5 ft, but at this point do not believe an SCA will be necessary. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening. Winds mainly from the southwest at around 10 kt, becoming northwest overnight.

Tuesday-Wednesday night . Sub-SCA conditions are expected. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Light and variable winds will eventually become southeast at around 10 kt Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Thursday . Sub-advisory winds/seas. A chance of storms during the afternoon, though better chances exist on land.

Rip Currents . A moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is forecast through Monday. Breezy southerly winds will combine with a medium-period southeasterly swell. Surf heights will generally be 2 to 4 feet.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . CMS/Robertson Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/O'Brien Marine . CMS/O'Brien Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 0 mi46 min SE 8 G 9.9 83°F 79°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 8 mi46 min S 11 G 12
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 15 mi46 min WSW 8 G 13 87°F 78°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 32 mi46 min 86°F
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 38 mi56 min 3 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 39 mi46 min 78°F 74°F
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 45 mi46 min S 8.9 G 9.9 81°F 74°F
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi76 min SW 7 88°F 1009 hPa64°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ4 mi50 minSSE 1110.00 miFair87°F66°F51%1009 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S10S8S6W4W4SW4SW5SW7W6W5CalmW5SW4W5CalmSW3W6W6W6SW5W66S11
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SW11SW13SW10SW8S8S6S8S8S6S8S8SW9SW9S11S9S9S7SW6
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape May Canal, Cape May, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:36 AM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM EDT     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:05 PM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.70.3-0.2-0.6-0.9-1-0.9-0.500.40.810.80.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.5-0.10.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.