Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kent Narrows, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:30PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 1:25 PM EDT (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:14AMMoonset 12:33AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 1038 Am Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
Rest of today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming ne 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Subsiding to flat after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 1038 Am Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure pushing swiftly across the deep south today will move offshore of south carolina this evening, then pass well south of the region on its way out to sea tonight into Wednesday. High pressure will slowly build in from the midwest through the end of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kent Narrows, MD
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location: 38.97, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 311619 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1219 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

SYNOPSIS. An upper level disturbance will yield continued unsettled conditions today. An area of low pressure will move off the Southeast coast tonight and will end up remaining stalled well offshore for much of the week. Meanwhile, high pressure will gradually build in across our region from late Wednesday through Saturday bringing mainly dry conditions. A weak cold front will likely approach by Sunday or Monday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A cool, moist marine layer lies over the eastern half of the forecast area, while a somewhat dryer airmass lies over the western half, and a boundary between these two airmasses is right along the I-95 corridor.

For the eastern half of the CWA, there are areas of fog that will last through daybreak, as well as low stratus that will be in place for much of the day, although ceilings will lift as the day progresses.

For the western half of the CWA, the marine layer/stratus deck will spread to the west as the morning progresses, although ceilings will not be quite as low as they are across portions of New Jersey.

Some pockets of light rain is passing through New Jersey, and this is helping to dissipate some of the fog that developed last night.

There is a deep closed low north of New York state, and several strong shortwaves will rotate around the base of the low across eastern Pennsylvania and central New Jersey. Weak low pressure develops over the area, and some light rain is possible this afternoon.

A noticeably cooler day with highs in the 40s to near 50, except for southern Delmarva, where highs could get into the low 50s. Temperatures will be cooler along the coasts.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/. As the closed low sags into northern New York state tonight, low pressure develops over Delmarva. Some light rain is possible, mainly across portions of southeast Pennsylvania and Delmarva. Another shot of light rain, possibly mixed with some sleet, may occur across the southern Poconos.

A cloudy, damp, and cool night on tap with lows in the 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Overview .

On the large scale, the long term period will be characterized by both a -NAO and a -PNA. For the first time in months, we are experiencing a true blocking pattern (-NAO) with strong ridging in the vicinity of Greenland. However, the -PNA is helping to yield troughing over the West Coast, subsequent downstream ridging over the Midwest and Southeast, and a trough over the East Coast which will shift offshore this week. So while the cold weather and snow enthusiast may be tempted to curse the late arrival of the blocking pattern, in reality this is a dry and quiet pattern more than anything as we are immediately downstream the Southeast/Midwestern ridge, and the trough underneath the Greenland block will be too far east to bring offshore storminess into our region. This all will be on display nicely over the next several days, as through the duration of this period (Wednesday-Monday) most of our area will likely receive little or no measurable precipitation.

Dailies .

Wednesday-Wednesday night . Southern stream area of low pressure moves offshore of the Carolinas by early Wednesday. This looks to be a fairly intense low, but is tracking far enough south to keep us out of its precipitation shield. However, we also have upper level low pressure and associated cold air aloft overhead on Wednesday, along with some residual low level moisture thanks to prolonged light easterly flow. Because of this, expect a mostly cloudy day and some spotty showers are possible especially to the northwest as a bit of shortwave energy embedded in the broad cyclonic flow regime approaches us from the north.

Thursday-Thursday night . With strengthening low pressure well offshore, northwest flow develops on Thursday, and it could be gusty at times with some gusts over 30 mph looking possible. Still some cold air aloft on Thursday but the profiles look drier with the gusty northwest winds, so the risk of showers looks low. Overnight, may need to watch what looks like an inverted trough backing southward as low pressure well offshore stalls out or even retrogrades southward a bit under the intense block to the north. This could yield some light showers especially for eastern areas later Thursday night, though it may remain far enough offshore that all areas stay dry.

Friday-Saturday . Depending on its track and timing, may need to continue watching the inverted trough feature for light coastal shower potential into Friday, at least for the morning. Outside of that, dry and seasonable conditions are expected for these days with high pressure building in from the west and strong, blocked low pressure offshore much too far east to affect us.

Sunday-Monday . Most indications are for a weak cold front to slowly approach late in the weekend, with a passage possibly around Sunday night. Given the upper level pattern, would tend to favor slower outcomes with regards to the frontal passage, and expect that it will come through with limited fanfare, probably just a few showers. Heading deeper into next week, a more progressive pattern may return as the -NAO breaks down.

AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mainly MVFR ceilings expected through at least 00Z. Some occasional lowering to IFR with MVFR visibility restrictions possible in patch drizzle. Winds E then SE 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . MVFR/VFR CIGs for most of the night. E winds, turning NE, less than 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday-Wednesday night . Mainly VFR, but localized MVFR possible especially during the day on Wednesday. Winds shifting from northeast to northwest at 5 to 10 kt during the day, then remaining northwest at 5 to 10 kt overnight. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . VFR. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt possible. High confidence.

Thursday night-Friday . Mainly VFR, but MVFR conditions possible especially northeast of PHL. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt Thursday night, becoming northerly then northeasterly at 10 to 15 kt on Friday. Moderate confidence.

Friday night-Saturday . VFR. Winds light and variable. High confidence.

MARINE. Sub-SCA criteria for most of today, but winds and seas will build to SCA levels by late afternoon on the ocean, and SCA conditions will develop on lower DE Bay for tonight.

SCA conditions continue on the ocean waters through tonight. Seas will average 4-6 feet and wind gusts will range from 25-30 kt.

Outlook .

Wednesday . SCA conditions will continue on the ocean waters due to seas running 4 to 6 ft, though they should gradually diminish later in the day.

Wednesday night . SCA flags may continue through the night due to seas running near 5 ft and northwest winds increasing during the latter part of the night.

Thursday-Thursday night . SCA conditions likely Thursday with northwest winds gusting to 25 kt. A period of sub-SCA conditions is possible Thursday night though we will still likely be close to criteria. Seas generally 3 to 5 ft.

Friday-Saturday . SCA conditions expected due to building seas associated with offshore low pressure.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ431.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . MPS/Staarmann Short Term . MPS Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . MPS/O'Brien/Staarmann Marine . MPS/O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi56 min 50°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 11 mi86 min N 8 G 8.9 49°F 52°F1015.7 hPa (-1.5)40°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 12 mi56 min 52°F 1013.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 17 mi62 min NE 2.9 G 8 49°F 52°F1015 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 23 mi56 min ENE 8 G 9.9 49°F 1014.3 hPa
FSNM2 23 mi68 min ENE 9.9 G 11 49°F 1014.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 27 mi56 min ESE 8.9 G 13 50°F 52°F1014.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi116 min N 2.9 1015 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi56 min ENE 8.9 G 11 52°F 55°F1013.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi32 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 990.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi56 min N 9.9 G 11 1014 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi56 min E 4.1 G 8 54°F 56°F1014.1 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi56 min ESE 8.9 G 11 45°F 51°F1015.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi56 min E 7 G 11 51°F 54°F1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi41 minNE 610.00 miOvercast52°F44°F77%1014.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD12 mi32 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F42°F71%1014.8 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi36 minE 87.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F88%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS9S6S7SE7S5N4N7N11
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NE6E4NE4CalmCalmNE5E4CalmCalm--CalmSW6SW8S10S13SE11
2 days agoE6E7NE8E8NE7NE4N3N7N8NE4E4CalmN3N8NE3NE4NE4E3E3CalmE4CalmNW5SE9
G16

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:10 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:38 AM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:22 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.30.20.20.40.711.31.51.51.41.210.80.60.50.40.40.50.70.91

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:40 AM EDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:11 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.50.70.80.80.60.3-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.3-00.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.