Wednesday, October28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kent Narrows, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:11PM Wednesday October 28, 2020 10:56 PM EDT (02:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 3:28AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 1039 Pm Edt Wed Oct 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am edt Thursday through Thursday evening...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain late this evening, then rain with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt...becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming w. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ500 1039 Pm Edt Wed Oct 28 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stalled frontal boundary will remain over our area through this evening. Zeta will impact the waters later tonight through Friday morning. A small craft advisory is in affect for all waters Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. A gale warning is in affect for the chesapeake bay and lower potomac for Thursday afternoon and night. Additional small craft advisories may be needed through Saturday morning. Please refer to the national hurricane center for the latest information regarding the track of zeta.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kent Narrows, MD
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location: 38.97, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 290109 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 909 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. The remnants of Hurricane Zeta will move through the Mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday. High pressure will build across the region on Saturday, exiting to the northeast Saturday night. A cold front will move through our area on Sunday night. High pressure will build across the southeastern states, influencing our weather through the middle of the new week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. The remnants of Zeta will be approaching our region through the day tomorrow, and the center should be off shore by late tomorrow. As we have been mentioning for the past several days, there are several risk factors for heavy rain, including a deep warm cloud layer and high precipitable water values. In a change from previous days, the forecast axis of heaviest precip has shifted south, now mostly south of the PA turnpike and I-195 corridor. More information on the hydrology concerns are discussed in the hydro section below.

With the remnants of Zeta quickly approaching during the day, winds will increase quickly during the second half of the day. However, at this point, it still looks like winds should stay below wind advisory criteria. With that said, the best potential for a brief period of 40-45+ mph wind gusts over land would be late Thursday afternoon across southern and coastal Delaware.

Thanks to the persistent cloud cover, we won't see a big swing in temperatures from tonight into tomorrow. In fact, temperatures across the northern portion of the area may actually fall slightly into the afternoon. Lows will likely be within 10 degrees of the highs.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/. Rain will continue, even with the remnants of Zeta already offshore, as a low and mid level short wave trough will be digging in quickly behind it. However, by tomorrow night, our moisture advection will be limited. Thus, expect the intensity of the rain to decrease starting as early as tomorrow evening.

We will start to see some significant cold air advection through the night. Consequently, some snow could mix with the rain in the higher terrain of the Poconos and NW NJ. Still think there will be little if any accumulation thanks to relatively warm ground and rain ahead of the snow.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The remnants of Zeta and the trailing secondary low pressure should be offshore by Friday morning, continuing to pull away to the east. Some rain will still be around the region but should be on the lighter side and will start to exit the region from west to east, finally ending most locations by Friday afternoon. Skies will remain cloudy through much of the day with some clearing possible as we head towards the evening.

High pressure will slide across the Great Lakes region and into the Mid-Atlantic Friday night. Skies really clear as the flow turns more to the north-northwest. With clear skies in place, we radiate efficiently and temperatures should drop well into the 20s north and west of the I-95 corridor. Along the I-95 corridor and points to the south and east, temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 30s. The exception is along the immediate coast of New Jersey and Delaware where temperatures are more likely to stay in the mid/upper 30s. Additionally, winds should drop off and become light through the overnight period. This will allow for frost to develop and with the temperatures dropping down near freezing, we will likely need some form of frost/freeze headlines for late Friday night/early Saturday morning.

The high will cross over our area on Saturday, quickly pushing off to the northeast as another low pressure system moves through Ontario and, with its cold front, makes its way eastward. Being between the departing high and the approaching cold front, we should have a very nice fall day in place with highs in the 40s to low 50s. Skies should be mostly clear through the day but we will start to see them creep back in from the east as the return flow brings some moisture back into our area Saturday night. A few light showers may occur, mainly along the coast late Saturday night but not confident enough to include in the forecast at this time. Overnight lows will warmer than the night before and mostly in the 30s to lower 40s.

Low pressure will cross through Ontario and into Quebec on Sunday. Its attendant cold front will move through central Pennsylvania on Sunday, crossing through our forecast area Sunday evening. We should see some warming ahead of the front in the southwest flow and daytime highs will be into the 50s to lower 60s. The front will also bring a round of rain to the region and some fairly gusty winds as the gradient tightens up. The rain should taper off late Sunday night as the front exits offshore. A deep upper trough will also cross the region Sunday night and this will help to usher in some much colder air aloft. The timing of when the cold air arrives and the final showers exit the region will be important as it means we could see some mixed ptypes, especially across the southern Poconos and far northwestern New Jersey. For now, models show the precip exiting well before the cold air arrives so we leave out the mention of any mixed precipitation at this time. Behind the front, in the northwest flow, we should dry out and see skies clear once again. Another strong radiational cooling night is likely to take place and overnight lows will drop down into the 30s, with some upper 20s across the higher terrain of the southern Poconos.

High pressure will move from the central plains to the southeastern states Monday through Tuesday, moving off the Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The deep upper trough cross the area on Monday and exits to our east Monday evening. We should be dry through the first half of the week with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will start off cool on Monday as the trough crosses the region, generally in the 40s, but as the high starts to take hold of our weather the airmass will modify and temperatures should be able to warm into the upper 40s/ lower 50s on Tuesday and then upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 06Z . Ceilings will likely be waffling between MVFR and VFR for much of this period, though a few sites may have transient IFR conditions through this time, especially south of PHL. Mostly light northerly winds. Moderate confidence.

Late tonight . Ceilings should lower quickly back to MVFR after 06Z then IFR or even LIFR by around 12Z. Winds will become light and variable, with the direction beginning to flip to northeasterly. Moderate confidence on the pattern, but low confidence on the timing details.

Thursday . IFR to LIFR conditions expected for most, if not all day. Ceiling should be the primary controlling factor, but visibility restrictions are probable too, especially in bands of heavy rain. If there is a long enough lull, there may be brief windows of improvement to MVFR, but this is unlikely. Northeasterly winds of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kts. Some stronger gusts possible in heavy rain. LLWS possible at MIV and ACY with a strong southerly low- level jet as surface winds remain from the NE to E around 10-15 kts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Thursday night . IFR or even LIFR ceilings are expected for much of the night. Northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, with the strongest winds at KACY. Non-convective low level wind shear is possible. Moderate confidence on pattern, but low confidence on timing of category changes.

Friday . MVFR/IFR conditions possible through the morning with improvement to VFR expected by the afternoon. Northwest winds around 10 to 20 knots with gusts up 30 knots possible. Higher gusts possible, especially at KACY. Moderate confidence.

Saturday . VFR conditions expected. Northeast winds in the morning will veer to the east and then southeast by Saturday night with speeds less than 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR conditions but periods of MVFR are possible in rain, mainly in the afternoon/evening as a cold front crosses the terminals. Southwesterly winds 5 to 15 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday . VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible. High confidence.

MARINE. Marine impacts likely from the remnants of Zeta late Thursday through Friday.

For tonight, sub-advisory conditions are expected with an offshore wind around 5-10 kts and seas 1-3 feet. Winds and seas will begin to increase throughout the day Thursday. The strongest winds will be across the southern ocean waters by late Thursday afternoon and into the evening as the remnant low passes offshore along with heavy rain. Wind gusts of 35-40+ kts are expected mainly south of Atlantic City during this period. A brief period of convective gusts may reach 45-50 kts south of Cape May. Seas in these areas will build up to 8 feet. The Gale Watch on lower Delaware Bay has been upgraded to a Gale Warning starting late Thursday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the upper Delaware Bay.

Outlook .

Thursday night through Friday . Northerly winds will continue to build after the remnant low of Zeta pulls away from the coast Thursday night with winds of gale force expected through at least the first half of Friday across the ocean waters. There may be a sub-gale lull in the winds during some of the overnight period. Seas will build to 6-9 feet with winds gusting up to 40 kts by around daybreak Friday across the ocean waters. Small craft advisory conditions are expected to persist across Delaware Bay during this time as well.

Friday night through Saturday . Winds and seas will continue to decrease to below advisory criteria by the overnight period Friday night. Saturday will also be below advisory criteria with easterly winds 5-10 kts and seas 2-4 feet.

Sunday through Monday . Winds and seas will increase throughout the day Sunday to advisory criteria. Expect offshore winds gusting 25-35 kts into the overnight period Sunday night with seas of 3-5 feet. Gale force wind gusts of 35-40 kts are possible, especially into Monday.

HYDROLOGY. The remnants of Zeta will be moving through our region, bringing a few waves of heavy rain from Thursday morning through Thursday evening. At this point, we expect the heavy rain to be confined to the period from tomorrow morning through early tomorrow evening. However, light rain could linger Thursday night into Friday morning.

Confidence is increasing that the axis of heaviest rain will be south of the PA Turnpike and Interstate 195 corridor, where a flood watch has been issued. Storm total rain of 2 to 4 inches is possible across the watch area. Elsewhere, storm total rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches is possible.

Within the watch area, overland and road flooding as well as small stream flooding are possible. However, at this point, we are not expecting any flooding on main stem rivers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of the remnants of Hurricane Zeta and a full moon Friday will lead to the potential for minor coastal flooding across portions of New Jersey, Delaware, and potentially the northern Chesapeake Bay. Astronomical tides will already be running high for the blue moon before accounting for surge from what will be a deepening low pressure system off our coastline. This will lead to easterly flow for the NJ coastline during the day on Thursday followed but strong northeasterly flow overnight on Thursday.

This will push water into the back bays and will likely cause some minor tidal flooding especially across coastal NJ. Using guidance from the Stevens Institute there are hints that the tide gages could reach moderate flood stage however I've opted to keep the forecast currently minor. Per NHC, typically in these type storms the ETSS guidance typically under performs on the tidal surge so I've gone with a blend of the median of the Stevens ensemble guidance and a bias corrected ETSS/ESTOFS blend which worked out quite well running slightly higher than the raw ETSS guidance.

Currently tidal flooding is not expected on the tidal Delaware river.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for PAZ070-071-101>104. NJ . Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NJZ016>027. DE . Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for DEZ001>004. MD . Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE . Gale Warning from 4 PM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ431- 450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ430.

Synopsis . Meola Near Term . Johnson/Staarmann Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Meola Aviation . Johnson/Meola/Staarmann Marine . Staarmann Hydrology . WFO PHI Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi56 min 62°F 59°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 11 mi56 min N 13 G 14 62°F 65°F1016 hPa (+0.0)62°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 12 mi56 min N 9.9 G 13 62°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.4)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 17 mi56 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 60°F 1015.7 hPa (+0.0)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 23 mi56 min NNE 6 G 7 60°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.3)
FSNM2 23 mi56 min NNE 6 G 8 60°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.0)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 27 mi56 min NE 6 G 7 61°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.5)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi146 min Calm 1015 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi56 min E 2.9 G 2.9 66°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.4)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi44 min ESE 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 66°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi56 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 66°F 1015.7 hPa (+0.0)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi56 min Calm G 1 67°F 1015.1 hPa (+0.0)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi56 min NE 1 G 2.9 60°F 1016.1 hPa (+0.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi56 min SSE 2.9 G 2.9 66°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi61 minNE 65.00 miFog/Mist61°F60°F100%1015.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD12 mi62 minNNE 78.00 miOvercast62°F60°F93%1015.3 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi66 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F94%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5SE4SE7S5S7S8SW8SW7SW7SW10SW10SW8SW7SW3CalmS3S4SE3SE3CalmCalmNE5NE5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmNW3W3NW3N6N6N4N5N6N7N3NW5W3S5CalmCalmSE5CalmCalm
2 days agoN5------------------N4N6NW6NW3NW5CalmCalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:36 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:04 PM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:43 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.11.41.51.61.41.210.70.50.40.40.60.91.21.41.51.51.31.10.80.60.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:44 AM EDT     0.67 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:49 AM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:11 PM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:32 PM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.10.40.60.70.50.2-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.400.50.80.90.80.60.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.