NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A cold front is sweeping through the area this afternoon, with some showers and heavier downpours passing through eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Showers will gradually continue to push east as the front moves offshore. A few gusts to 30-40 MPH are possible with the passage of the front.

Skies clear out pretty quickly as much drier air moves in.
Looking at mostly clear skies by the late evening with a steady northwest wind around 10-15 MPH overnight. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 40s, with low 50s within the NJ Coastal Plain, Delmarva, and the Philadelphia metro area.

A very autumnal Sunday is on tap. A nice sunny day is expected, though there could be some gusty northwest winds with gusts around 20-30 MPH. Temperatures will only get into the upper 60s/low 70s with dew points in the upper 30s/low 40s(!).

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper level trough will build over the Northeast Sunday night before the base of the trough settles over the area on Monday. Some strong shortwave energy will dive into the base of the trough Monday night, and then the trough departs on Tuesday with zonal flow aloft setting up. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for the start of the new week, eventually building east over the Northeast by Tuesday.

In terms of sensible weather, conditions will be clear and calm Sunday night, giving way to strong radiational cooling conditions. Will err on the colder side of guidance with NBM10 for low temperatures generally in the low to mid 40s, except in the low 50s in Philadelphia and along the coasts.

Sunny and milder on Monday with temperatures warming a bit closer to normal. Highs look to top off in the mid and upper 70s throughout.

Some light showers are possible well north of the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey Monday night with the passage of that shortwave. Will keep the area precipitation free for now, but cannot rule out at least some sprinkles in the far northern areas. There should be enough clouds to keep optimal radiational cooling conditions from developing, and lows should be some 10 degrees warmer than Sunday night, and generally in the low to mid 50s.

By Tuesday, with zonal flow aloft setting up and surface high pressure building east, warm air advection will be underway.
Under sunny skies, highs warm into the low to mid 80s. There should be enough mixing to keep surface dew points in the 50s, so humidity levels should be fairly comfortable.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure moves over the Northeast Tuesday night through Wednesday before moving offshore and becoming entrenched over the Western Atlantic for the end of the week.

In terms of sensible weather, conditions remain sunny and dry at least into Friday. Saturday should also remain dry, but models are hinting at low pressure developing off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. This could bring some rain to the area by then, but for now, it does not look good.

The main story of the week will be the warming temperatures.
Highs generally climb into the mid and upper 80s as the week progresses. Humidity levels should be fairly comfortable for most of the week as surface dew points will be in the 50s, though could be up around 60 by the end of the week. Though warm during the day, lows at night will be fair, and generally in the 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...Primarily VFR but some restrictions possible in heavier showers. Heaviest showers should be from KPNE on north.
The front has come through the I-95 corridor and should be through KMIV/KACY between 20z-21z. Winds will become northwesterly around 10- 15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt.
Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR skies becoming clear overnight. NW winds 5 to 10 knots. High/medium confidence.

Sunday...VFR. Northwest winds around 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...A prolonged period of VFR conditions. Afternoon sea breezes possible at coastal terminals Monday through Wednesday.

MARINE
The Small Craft Advisory on the Delaware Bay has been extended through tonight as gusts will be near 25 kt with the passage of the cold front. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through noon Sunday for the coastal waters as winds tonight into Sunday morning will be around 25 kt out of the northwest with seas 4 to 6 feet.

By Sunday afternoon, no marine headlines are anticipated as gusts will fall to around 15-20 kt and seas fall to 3 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...A prolonged period of sub-SCA conditions along with fair weather.

Rip Currents...

Today...The larger swells associated with the onshore flow should be ending in the last half of the day, however some longer period swells will persist from the storm located well offshore. The surf will also still be a bit rough due to this and the increasing south to southeasterly winds. We have therefore maintained a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the New Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

Sunday...The offshore storm will finally be well removed from its influence on our coastal waters by Sunday. Additionally, offshore winds and lessening seas will result in somewhat lower breaking wave in the surf zone and a lower risk for rip currents than experienced previous days. Therefore, will go with a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the New Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With the increasing southerly wind ahead of a cold front today, some spotty minor tidal flooding is possible along the back bays of Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE. The primary impacts would occur with the daytime high tide today. Winds turning offshore by this evening should prevent any additional minor tidal flooding.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455.