Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parole, MD
May 15, 2024 2:08 PM EDT (18:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 11:43 AM Moonset 1:17 AM |
ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 136 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon - .
This afternoon - NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Numerous showers with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers with patchy drizzle. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - N winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely.
Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will gradually lift north and east through today, ahead of it's associated front that is set to cross the waters early Thursday. Additional waves of low pressure and slow moving fronts will pass through the region late Friday into the weekend. Weak high pressure briefly returns to the waters early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday and Sunday.
low pressure will gradually lift north and east through today, ahead of it's associated front that is set to cross the waters early Thursday. Additional waves of low pressure and slow moving fronts will pass through the region late Friday into the weekend. Weak high pressure briefly returns to the waters early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday and Sunday.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 151757 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 157 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system and its associated front will continue to cross the Mid-Atlantic today. Weak area of high pressure builds in on Thursday into Friday, leading to drier conditions compared to the previous days. Another slow moving low pressure system will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances for the weekend before weak high pressure returns early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Two areas of low pressure are impacting the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon, one off to the west and another off the SE VA coast.
Showers associated with the coastal low have begun to dissipate from west to east. There have even been some light breaks in the clouds as a result of the departing low. The upper trough will continue to move further east and allow for showers to continue from the west. In central VA and along the Allegheny Front, clouds may break enough to allow some instability to build in and create a chance for an isolated thunderstorm. Otherwise, areas of showers and drizzle will persist throughout the day with highs only topping out in the low to mid 60s for the most part.
By tonight, the upper trough will continue to absorb the coastal low, allowing it to stall further off the coast. Rain chances will begin to decrease except right along the Chesapeake where these chances may hold on through the night. With any breaks in the clouds overnight, fog may develop as we head into Thursday morning.
Overnight lows will bottom out in the low to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The low will continue to linger around the coast on Thursday, keeping more clouds around the I-95 corridor with ridging building in further west. While most places will be mostly dry throughout the day, cannot rule out a few isolated showers with any lingering low- level moisture around as a result of the departing low. Highs will be tricky, as areas that receive more breaks in the clouds will likely top out in the mid to upper 70s, whereas places with more clouds will be in the upper 60s to low 70s during the afternoon and early evening hours. Ridging will build more overhead by Thursday night, allowing drier conditions and lows in the 50s for most areas.
The next system will approach the area on Friday, increasing clouds and precipitation chances, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture increases by Friday night with increased rain chances and lows dipping down into the mid to upper 50s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overall the long term period looks to remain quite unsettled for the most part, with a brief respite likely towards the beginning of next week between areas of low pressure.
For the weekend, unfortunately it looks to be another wet one with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s on both days. This is due to a slow-moving trough that will be working its way eastward across the southern CONUS. The majority of shower and thunderstorm activity should occur on Saturday, but as the surface low associated with this system reaches the coast, it seems to slow down and some guidance even nearly stalls it off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.
By early next week, as the aforementioned low moves well off to our east, a ridge aloft builds in from the west. This will bring warmer and drier conditions back to the region. However, neither day poses a non-zero chance for thunderstorms. Pieces of upper-level energy will be sliding across the north side of the ridge, thus bringing at least a small chance for some afternoon storms.
By mid-week, we may have our next organized system moving through.
Whether that is Wednesday or Thursday is still a bit up in the air, but the combination of much warmer temperatures by then (likely in the low 80s or so) and higher humidity should yield a better chance of organized thunderstorm activity. This would likely come in the form of thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain during peak heating, before drifting eastward into the afternoon/evening hours.
We will be a bit more confident on that potential, as well as any severe weather potential, as we get a bit closer in time.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR ceilings will be more common this afternoon, with decreasing coverage of rain and drizzle for the terminals. Easterly winds will become more northerly this evening, which should allow for drier conditions. However, MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely persist with the low lingering off the coast. Some breaks in the clouds could occur at MRB, which could lead to fog.
Low ceilings should gradually lift Thursday and could scatter out in some locations. However, there are indications low ceilings and/or fog may redevelop Thursday night into Friday morning. The next system will be approach late Friday, increasing the chance for showers and sub-VFR ceilings, especially Friday night.
An area of low pressure will slowly traverse the region Saturday into Sunday, bringing unsettled conditions to the terminals.
Sub-VFR conditions are likely during this time due to lowered CIGs and potential VSBY restrictions in heavier rain and/or thunderstorms.
MARINE
SCAs are in effect for most of the waters aside from the northern- most Potomac zone through this evening. The low will remain off the coast tonight into Thursday. An advisory will remain in effect for the bay and lower Potomac through the night as winds become more northerly. Deeper mixing should ensue Thursday with the wind field still in place, so the SCA will expand to all waters. Winds are forecast to gradually diminish Thursday night, but the advisory will likely need to be extended for some zones. Overall, lighter winds are expected Friday and Friday night as weak high pressure moves across the area.
A brief period of SCA conditions remain possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as an area of low pressure passes just south of the region. This will be especially true over middle and lower portions of the bay and lower tidal Potomac where a bit more channeling could occur. Numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will accompany this system through Saturday into early Sunday.
Onshore easterly flow is expected on Saturday ahead of an approaching area of low pressure, and should be close to SCA criteria. Winds Saturday night into Sunday will gradually shift to north-northeasterly as the low slides across the region. Again, would expect winds to be at or near SCA criteria during this time.
This will especially be true across lower portions of the waters.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Easterly winds will keep water levels elevated in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac through this afternoon.
As an area of low pressure moves east of the area later today, winds become northeast, then north. This should result in quickly decreasing water levels and reduced coastal flood threat.
Beyond today, the next threat for coastal flooding appears to be Friday into the weekend as south to southeasterly flow returns ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the Ohio River Valley.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534- 537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ535- 536-538-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ536- 538-542.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 157 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system and its associated front will continue to cross the Mid-Atlantic today. Weak area of high pressure builds in on Thursday into Friday, leading to drier conditions compared to the previous days. Another slow moving low pressure system will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances for the weekend before weak high pressure returns early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Two areas of low pressure are impacting the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon, one off to the west and another off the SE VA coast.
Showers associated with the coastal low have begun to dissipate from west to east. There have even been some light breaks in the clouds as a result of the departing low. The upper trough will continue to move further east and allow for showers to continue from the west. In central VA and along the Allegheny Front, clouds may break enough to allow some instability to build in and create a chance for an isolated thunderstorm. Otherwise, areas of showers and drizzle will persist throughout the day with highs only topping out in the low to mid 60s for the most part.
By tonight, the upper trough will continue to absorb the coastal low, allowing it to stall further off the coast. Rain chances will begin to decrease except right along the Chesapeake where these chances may hold on through the night. With any breaks in the clouds overnight, fog may develop as we head into Thursday morning.
Overnight lows will bottom out in the low to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The low will continue to linger around the coast on Thursday, keeping more clouds around the I-95 corridor with ridging building in further west. While most places will be mostly dry throughout the day, cannot rule out a few isolated showers with any lingering low- level moisture around as a result of the departing low. Highs will be tricky, as areas that receive more breaks in the clouds will likely top out in the mid to upper 70s, whereas places with more clouds will be in the upper 60s to low 70s during the afternoon and early evening hours. Ridging will build more overhead by Thursday night, allowing drier conditions and lows in the 50s for most areas.
The next system will approach the area on Friday, increasing clouds and precipitation chances, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture increases by Friday night with increased rain chances and lows dipping down into the mid to upper 50s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overall the long term period looks to remain quite unsettled for the most part, with a brief respite likely towards the beginning of next week between areas of low pressure.
For the weekend, unfortunately it looks to be another wet one with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s on both days. This is due to a slow-moving trough that will be working its way eastward across the southern CONUS. The majority of shower and thunderstorm activity should occur on Saturday, but as the surface low associated with this system reaches the coast, it seems to slow down and some guidance even nearly stalls it off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.
By early next week, as the aforementioned low moves well off to our east, a ridge aloft builds in from the west. This will bring warmer and drier conditions back to the region. However, neither day poses a non-zero chance for thunderstorms. Pieces of upper-level energy will be sliding across the north side of the ridge, thus bringing at least a small chance for some afternoon storms.
By mid-week, we may have our next organized system moving through.
Whether that is Wednesday or Thursday is still a bit up in the air, but the combination of much warmer temperatures by then (likely in the low 80s or so) and higher humidity should yield a better chance of organized thunderstorm activity. This would likely come in the form of thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain during peak heating, before drifting eastward into the afternoon/evening hours.
We will be a bit more confident on that potential, as well as any severe weather potential, as we get a bit closer in time.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR ceilings will be more common this afternoon, with decreasing coverage of rain and drizzle for the terminals. Easterly winds will become more northerly this evening, which should allow for drier conditions. However, MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely persist with the low lingering off the coast. Some breaks in the clouds could occur at MRB, which could lead to fog.
Low ceilings should gradually lift Thursday and could scatter out in some locations. However, there are indications low ceilings and/or fog may redevelop Thursday night into Friday morning. The next system will be approach late Friday, increasing the chance for showers and sub-VFR ceilings, especially Friday night.
An area of low pressure will slowly traverse the region Saturday into Sunday, bringing unsettled conditions to the terminals.
Sub-VFR conditions are likely during this time due to lowered CIGs and potential VSBY restrictions in heavier rain and/or thunderstorms.
MARINE
SCAs are in effect for most of the waters aside from the northern- most Potomac zone through this evening. The low will remain off the coast tonight into Thursday. An advisory will remain in effect for the bay and lower Potomac through the night as winds become more northerly. Deeper mixing should ensue Thursday with the wind field still in place, so the SCA will expand to all waters. Winds are forecast to gradually diminish Thursday night, but the advisory will likely need to be extended for some zones. Overall, lighter winds are expected Friday and Friday night as weak high pressure moves across the area.
A brief period of SCA conditions remain possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as an area of low pressure passes just south of the region. This will be especially true over middle and lower portions of the bay and lower tidal Potomac where a bit more channeling could occur. Numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will accompany this system through Saturday into early Sunday.
Onshore easterly flow is expected on Saturday ahead of an approaching area of low pressure, and should be close to SCA criteria. Winds Saturday night into Sunday will gradually shift to north-northeasterly as the low slides across the region. Again, would expect winds to be at or near SCA criteria during this time.
This will especially be true across lower portions of the waters.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Easterly winds will keep water levels elevated in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac through this afternoon.
As an area of low pressure moves east of the area later today, winds become northeast, then north. This should result in quickly decreasing water levels and reduced coastal flood threat.
Beyond today, the next threat for coastal flooding appears to be Friday into the weekend as south to southeasterly flow returns ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the Ohio River Valley.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534- 537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ535- 536-538-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ536- 538-542.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 4 mi | 51 min | N 5.1G | 63°F | 69°F | 29.72 | ||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 5 mi | 45 min | NNE 14G | 61°F | 63°F | 1 ft | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 8 mi | 69 min | NNE 12G | 62°F | 29.75 | |||
| CPVM2 | 9 mi | 51 min | 63°F | 61°F | ||||
| 44043 - Patapsco, MD | 15 mi | 45 min | NE 16G | 62°F | 64°F | 2 ft | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 16 mi | 99 min | NNE 4.1 | 64°F | 29.74 | 60°F | ||
| CBCM2 | 17 mi | 51 min | ENE 8.9G | 64°F | 65°F | 29.72 | 60°F | |
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 17 mi | 51 min | ENE 9.9G | 63°F | ||||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 21 mi | 51 min | NE 7G | 63°F | 67°F | |||
| TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD | 23 mi | 51 min | E 7G | 62°F | 29.73 | |||
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 26 mi | 51 min | NNE 5.1G | 66°F | 68°F | 29.73 | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 29 mi | 45 min | NNE 18G | 60°F | 65°F | 2 ft | ||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 37 mi | 51 min | NNE 8.9G | 63°F | 65°F | 29.70 | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 40 mi | 51 min | N 13G | 62°F | 29.71 | |||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 45 mi | 51 min | N 13G | 62°F | 65°F | 29.70 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFME TIPTON,MD | 14 sm | 19 min | NE 06 | 7 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 59°F | 88% | 29.76 | |
| KBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL THURGOOD MARSHALL,MD | 16 sm | 10 min | NE 09 | 4 sm | Overcast | Lt Drizzle Mist | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 29.73 |
| KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD | 20 sm | 13 min | ENE 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 59°F | 78% | 29.69 | |
| KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD | 20 sm | 23 min | NNE 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.74 |
Tide / Current for Gingerville Creek, South River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Gingerville Creek, South River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:01 AM EDT 0.58 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:16 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:13 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:49 AM EDT -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 08:22 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:46 AM EDT 0.65 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:51 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:21 PM EDT -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:51 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:01 AM EDT 0.58 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:16 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:13 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:49 AM EDT -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 08:22 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:46 AM EDT 0.65 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:51 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:21 PM EDT -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:51 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| -0.2 |
| 5 am |
| -0.4 |
| 6 am |
| -0.4 |
| 7 am |
| -0.3 |
| 8 am |
| -0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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