Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Naval Academy, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Areas of cloud cover along and east of the Appalachians were slowly dispersing as of mid afternoon. At the surface, a cold front was set to cross the region this evening. The breaks in the clouds plus a wind shift to the west with occasional gusts will result in a spike in temperatures into the early evening before cold advection causes temperatures to drop sharply later this evening into the overnight. A few flurries or snow showers are possible along and west of the Allegheny Front with any additional accumulation being light and spotty through tonight.

A combination of sharply falling temperatures and gusty winds (around 40 mph at times) will result in wind chills as low as 15 degrees below zero along and west of the Allegheny Front tonight.
This has prompted the issuance of Cold Weather Advisories.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Another cold front will cross the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will bring a reinforcing shot of even colder temperatures, with 850 hPa temps tumbling to below -15 C Tuesday night. A 3- to 6-hour window of saturation, lift, and moisture through a deepening DGZ is expected to result in upslope snow showers or squalls along and west of the Allegheny Front, with scattered flurries or a couple brief snow showers possible east of the mountains due to the mid/upper forcing/moisture combo.
There is some uncertainty in just how widespread 3+ inch amounts will be over the Alleghenies given the brief window of the best forcing and dynamics, so have held off on a Winter Weather Advisory for now.

The very cold airmass combined with gusty NW winds in the wake of this system will lead to cold wind chills areawide Tuesday night. Confidence in Cold Weather Advisory criteria is highest over the higher elevations, and that is where a headline has been issued. Wind chills likely drop to near zero for the lower elevations, but confidence in exactly where, how widespread, and for how long remains too low for a third period advisory.

Very cold temperatures and breezy conditions will persist through Wednesday. Winds will gradually subside Wednesday night, but it will remain very cold.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An upper/mid-level trough pivots over the East Coast Thursday before exiting offshore Thursday night, leading to upslope snow showers. Given the dynamic nature of the upper trough, snow showers could spill east of the mountains (recent trends have been more amplified which makes sense given the nature of the background UA pattern over NOAM).

By Friday morning, brief upper-level ridging builds overhead leading to dry conditions and moderating temps areawide.

For the weekend, broad upper-level troughing pivots overhead as multiple surface low pressure systems approach from the W/SW. A cold front approaches and moves through the forecast area Saturday into Sunday with precipitation likely developing across the forecast area ahead of the front Saturday morning. A wintry mix could ensue briefly at precipitation onset Saturday morning west of the Blue Ridge if enough cold air lingers/precip arrives quickly enough. A slight chance to chance of precip lingers through the weekend with snow possible on Sunday as temperatures drop in the wake of the frontal passage and another wave of low pressure attempts to take shape.

Temperatures moderate Thursday through Saturday with temperatures slowly warming each day. Thursday will be the coolest day with high temperatures in the 30s to low 40s for most (20s at high elevations). High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 40s for most of the area with higher elevations in the 30s.
Temperatures cool again on Sunday with highs in the 30s to 40s (20s at higher elevations). Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s to 30s with highest elevations dipping into the teens.

The trend for colder temperatures continues into early next week as longwave troughing envelopes much of the CONUS. Waves of low pressure will have to be monitored for potential wintry precip during this time given the cold air in place and a baroclinic zone lurking nearby.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR with SCT/BKN clouds around FL050-060 will persist through Tuesday evening. Brief drops to MVFR are possible as a front crosses Tuesday, particularly near MRB; flurries are possible as well generally 18Z-03Z Tuesday from west to east. Gusty NW winds will persist, with the strongest winds expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when gusts to 30 kts are possible. Winds will gradually diminish with VFR persisting through mid week.

Southwest winds gust up to 15 knots Thursday and Friday afternoons with VFR conditions expected at all terminals.
However, flurries or a few snow showers can't be ruled out Thursday as a front crosses.

MARINE
Periods of gusty northwest winds are expected through the middle of the week. The strongest winds - to gale force - are expected in the wake of a cold front Tuesday night. Freezing spray is possible Tuesday night due to the gusty winds and very cold air temperatures. A few flurries are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, as well. Otherwise, it will be dry, blustery, and cold.

Southwesterly winds may stay mainly below SCA criteria Thursday and Friday. Wind gusts near Small Craft Advisory criteria are possible over the wider waters of the Chesapeake Bay, however.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Offshore flow behind a series of fronts will result in declining water levels through mid week. The strongest negative surge will take place Tuesday night into Wednesday, when blowout conditions will be possible. Water levels will return closer to normal by Thursday as winds take a more southwesterly direction.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ001.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday for MDZ001.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ501.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ503.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday for VAZ503.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ504-507-508.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ501-505.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday for WVZ501-505.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ503-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>534-537>543.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ530>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ535- 536.