Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:40 PM   Moonset 2:22 AM

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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 734 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers, mainly this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tue - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 921 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - A front will then approach the local waters overnight into Sunday, bringing increased chances for rain and lightning storms, as well as the threat for isolated to scattered strong storms Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will remain over the western atlantic through midweek which will keep daily shower and storm chances in the forecast over the local atlantic waters.
Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, may 17th.
46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KLWX 190131 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 931 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will drift off the Carolina Coast through Sunday.
High pressure will build overhead Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the Midwest Wednesday, then cross by Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A longwave trough axis is positively tilted from New England to the Tennessee Valley. Primary stationary front is located across North Carolina, but a secondary wind shift appears to be located across Pennsylvania. A shortwave trough is departing to the east, taking earlier rain with it. Most of the night should largely be dry, but a few showers could develop late tonight as the convergence axis drop south into the area. Most guidance indicates the isolated shower chance along the I-95 corridor.

Breaks in the clouds have been occurring in the Potomac Highlands, and this may continue into the night, possibly including the Shenandoah Valley. This area will have the greatest chance of fog development. Low clouds will remain in place across much of the rest of the area. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to near 60.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday starts off with cloud cover over most of the area, with possible breaks along our western periphery similar to today.
Shower activity on Sunday appears to be less than previously forecast since the system responsible has made a swift exit and high pressure builds in from the north, but a few showers and isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out in the afternoon quite yet, primarily west of the Blue Ridge. Cloud cover will decrease through the day and high temperatures are expected to reach into the 70s for much of the area. Low temperatures will be in the 50s. With available moisture from recent rainfall and high pressure moving in, some fog could develop late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Monday begins our reprieve from unsettled conditions with dry weather and sunny skies in the forecast. High temperatures rise to the mid-upper 70s, starting a warming trend as well.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A broad upper level ridge is forecast to be remain in place over the eastern seaboard on Tuesday with high pressure at the surface. A southerly return flow will lead to increasingly warming temperatures through the middle parts of next week. The SFC high pressure on Tuesday will keep the region dry, but an approaching cold front from the west will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Model guidance has trended slower with the mid-week system and there remains some uncertainty if there will be enough instability (CAPE) that overlaps with the favorable period for shear to produce a threat for severe weather. SPC is focusing on the Ohio Valley for SVR weather Wednesday into Thursday, but the CIPS machine learning model continues to suggest that there is a chance for isolated severe weather in our region during the middle and later parts of next week.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast is somewhat uncertain for the next several hours as most guidance is not capturing the current ceilings teetering between MVFR and VFR. There is a general consensus of decreasing ceilings through the night, most likely to IFR. This could occur as early as 04-06Z or as late as 08-10Z. There is a lower probability of LIFR ceilings. The greatest chance for visibility reduced in fog will be for MRB and CHO. Any shower chance will be isolated/light for the remainder of the night.

Conditions should improve to VFR by late morning/early afternoon on Sunday as high pressure builds in.

VFR conditions are favored Tuesday through Friday with winds likely to be out of the south to southeast. Brief aviation restrictions will be possible with shower and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE
Wind forecast has been trending downward for tonight, and observations are backing that up. Therefore may be canceling the existing Small Craft Advisory. E/SE winds become N/NE by Sunday morning. High pressure builds in on Sunday and winds remain sub- SCA and out of the E/NE through Monday.

Sub-SCA conditions are favored on Tuesday, but a southerly channeling flow on Wednesday may require Small Craft Advisories.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent onshore flow (albeit light) is expected to persist into early next week. Repeated rounds of flooding are possible, especially along vulnerable shoreline. Given the light nature of the flow, flooding should stay in the minor realm. Have reconfigured advisories based on the latest forecast. In short, Straits Point, Annapolis, and DC SW Waterfront are most likely to see minor flooding, especially during the higher high tide cycles.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.

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Annapolis (US Naval Academy), Severn River, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sat -- 02:30 AM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:54 AM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:46 PM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:42 PM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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