Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 1:52 AM   Moonset 11:43 AM

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FXUS63 KEAX 011101 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 601 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong to isolated severe storms possible this evening into tonight with hail the main threat.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue into Thursday with flash and river flooding a concern.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms this weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The cold front that had brought storms to the area last night has pushed south of the CWA his front will become stationary south of the area this morning. This will keep the bulk of the area dry during the morning hours. However, as we move into the afternoon hours the front will start to slowly lift north across central Missouri and central Kansas. A LLJ will develop west of the area across eastern Kansas and models depict subtle shortwaves aloft that may aid development. This may bring storms into the western and northwestern CWA this afternoon. Highs will range in the 70s today.
However, as we move into this evening the LLJ will strengthen and the nose will focus on the western CWA This will allow storm coverage and intensity to increase. AS such a few of these storms may be strong to isolated severe with threat being the main threat as these storms will be elevated in nature north of the surface front. With the LLJ nosing into the area through the overnight showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist this will bring the potential for heavy and prolonged rain as PWATs are expected to range between 1.25"-1.50" which may lead to flash and river flooding. Storms will continue through Thursday morning as the LLJ never really weakens. heavy rain will continue to be a concern as PWATs will further increase to 1.50"-1.75". As we move into Thursday afternoon, the LLJ does weaken however, a compact mid-level shortwave will move through the area with a surface cold front. This will spawn additional convection on Thursday afternoon however, the severe threat is conditional. If we can clear out and get some diurnal heating which seems in doubt at this point, a few of these storms could be strong with marginally severe hail and gusty winds the main threats. The cold front will finally push through the area by Thursday evening with just light showers in it's wake Thursday night. By the end of the event widespread 1.50"-3.00" of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible. Again this will make flooding and river flooding a concern.

A surface ridge of high pressure looks to build into the area on Friday finally drying conditions out with seasonable highs in the low to mid 70s. The dry period will be short-lived however, as a upper level trough will move from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest late Friday night into Saturday. This will force a cold front through the area bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Fortunately, this system should be progressive enough not to cause much issue however, depend what occurs over the next two days, any additional precipitation may not be welcome. This round of storms will exit the area Saturday morning with surface high pressure building back into the area. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure looks to remain in control through most of Sunday however, late Sunday into Sunday night a low amplitude, quick moving shortwave is expected to eject out from the southwestern CONUS into the local region. This will bring yet another round of showers and thunderstorms, again fortunately, moisture will be meager with this system. Showers associated with this feature will exit the area early Monday. However, another more potent system is on it's heels for Monday night in the form of a negatively tilted trough. Both the GFS and EC are advertising this feature as on the 00Z runs so this will have to be monitored going forward as this would pose a significant severe threat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Conditions will be VFR through most of the day with some potential for MVFR conditions developing in the evening and overnight hour as showers and storms move into eastern KS and western MO. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding timing any precipitation into the terminals. There's a small chance for storms during the afternoon, so have maintained the VCTS group.
Precipitation looks more widespread in the overnight hours so have prevailing -TSRA then -SHRA with VCTS later in the night.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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