Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shenandoah Farms, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Below normal temperatures continue into the next work week, with a slight chance for showers or a thunderstorm Tuesday.

- 2) Temperatures start to increase later in the week, with increasing rain chances going into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures continue into the next work week, with a slight chance for showers or a thunderstorm Tuesday.

High pressure will move across the area from NW to SE today.
Winds will initially out of the NW, gradually turning southerly by late afternoon, albeit light. High temperatures will remain slightly below normal, with most areas in the 70s. Expect mostly sunny skies today with no precipitation chances.

Winds will shift southerly Sunday night, and the ensuing dew point advection will help hold low temperatures to the upper 40s and 50s.

A shortwave will reinforce the troughing along the east coast on Monday. A cold front will pass south through the area early in the day, with the main effects being added cloud cover and a wind shift back to the north. The frontal passage will likely be dry, as any diurnally driven showers form south and east of the forecast area during the afternoon. Temperatures won't change appreciably from Sunday.

By Tuesday, another lobe of shortwave energy, rotating around the primary trough axis to the northeast, will swing through the region. This could set off a few showers/storms, primarily west of the Blue Ridge. The air mass will be fairly dry, so it will be hard to get much going, but the orographic lift and synoptic lift could at least get some isolated convection going in that region. High temperatures will again only reach the low to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures start to increase later in the week, with increasing rain chances going into the weekend.

Surface high pressure settles into the region again on Wednesday, with little to note in terms of precipitation through the end of the week as upper level ridging slowly pushes southeast over the next several days. Temperatures start to trend upward during this time, pushing back to the mid-to-upper 80s by Friday and Saturday.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough slides eastward over southern Canada late in the week, with an associated cold front dropping down from the Ohio River Valley Saturday into Sunday. This front will bring widespread chances for rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region over the weekend. The severe risk appears low at this time, but some low-end probabilities are lighting up as this system moves through (such as CSU Machine Learning Probabilities and NCAR's Medium-Range AI Convective Hazards forecast). The timing of this is still subject to change given that it is a week out, but it does hint that this associated frontal boundary will likely be the next chance for widespread rainfall within the region.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through Monday. High pressure will slide overhead today and offshore into this evening. Light north winds will westerly and then southerly late this afternoon into this evening. A weak cold front will turn winds back to the north on Monday.

VFR conditions are expected across terminals Tuesday through Friday, with winds generally flowing north to northwest switching to the south and southwest late in the week. Spotty showers and t-storms may create brief reductions at terminals mainly west of MRB Tuesday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Northwest winds this morning will become southerly by Sunday evening as high pressure quickly slides overhead and then offshore. Channeling could result in SCA conditions on the middle Chesapeake Bay tonight, so have issued an SCA for the lower Bay waters as a result.

Another front will push through early Monday, turning winds out of the north once again. However, they should be weaker than the current front, so SCAs are not expected at this time.

Northerly winds look to continue Tuesday and Wednesday with marginal SCA conditions possible over the middle and lower waters of the Chesapeake Bay/tidal Potomac River. The strength of these winds will depend on the gradient between an area of wobbling low pressure off the coast and incoming high from central Canada.
Winds fall back below SCA levels Thursday with some southerly channeling over the wider waters late Friday into Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A return of southerly flow will bring a surge in water levels tonight. Guidance indicates a greater chance of minor flooding during this period, especially in the northern portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Annapolis may even approach moderate flood stage. No headlines are needed at this stage, but may be considered in the next 12 hours.

Another cold front will lower water levels Monday, but they might rise again toward the middle of the week depending on the position and strength of low pressure developing off the coast.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ534-543.