Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 12:47 PM   Moonset 1:45 AM

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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 433 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening - .
Rest of this afternoon - N winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 433 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure and its associated cold front will push offshore today as weak high pressure builds over the waters from the south. Additional waves of low pressure and slow-moving fronts will pass through the region late Friday into the weekend. Weak high pressure will briefly return to the waters Monday and Tuesday before another low pressure system impacts the waters midweek. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday and Sunday.

FXUS61 KLWX 161903 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 303 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Drier conditions are expected today through Friday as low pressure slowly pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast and weak high pressure builds in. Increased shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend as another low pressure system pushes across the region.
High pressure briefly returns Monday and Tuesday ahead of a slow moving cold front set to cross by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As low pressure departs and weak ridging builds into the region, mostly dry conditions are expected today. Fair weather cu is visible on satellite over most of the region with denser cloud cover over central and northeast Maryland as well as the mountains to the west. A few showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible near and west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon as a weak boundary moves through before dissolving this evening. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere with highs rising into the 70s. Clouds increase through the night ahead of an approaching system and lows hover in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
On Friday, an upper trough and associated surface low will be moving through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A warm front lifts into the area, acting as a focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity by Friday afternoon, primarily along and west of the Blue Ridge, before advancing eastward overnight.
There is potential for the warm front to stall nearby as the attendant low moves off to the northeast. Light flow could mean slower storm motions as well, so some isolated flooding is possible. WPC currently has much of the area along/west of the Blue Ridge outlined with a Marginal ERO.

Heading into Saturday, a stronger shortwave moves into the southeast to pick up the stalled warm frontal boundary.
Continued shower and thunderstorm activity is expected through day Saturday. Isolated flooding continues to be a concern with repeated rounds of slow moving showers. Around 1-2 inches of rain are expected through the duration of the weekend. Some areas could see closer to 2.5 inches, but confidence on exactly where is low as it depends on where the boundary will be Friday night into Saturday. For now, highest estimates are in portions of the Shenandoah Valley and Virginia Piedmont. Shower and thunderstorm coverage decreases through Saturday evening as the low moves off to the southeast, but rain likely continues into Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Late in the weekend on Sunday, an area of low pressure will be moving south of the region, allowing some showers to trickle in across the southern half of the CWA Highs on Sunday will be a bit cooler compared to the previous days, with 60s being most common across the area. Rain chances will continue to diminish by the late evening hours. Fairly dry start to the workweek with high pressure influencing the region. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows dropping down into the low 50s.

The next system approaches on Tuesday from the west, increasing clouds, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to near 80. Cannot rule out a stray shower overnight Tuesday in the aforementioned areas, otherwise mostly dry conditions with lows in the mid 50s.

Fairly potent system approaches the area by Wednesday, with a cold front advanced out ahead of the system. Guidance has been hinting at the opportunity for increased instability ahead of the frontal passage. Could see some thunderstorms develop, with some getting strong to severe. Still a lot of uncertainty with this system with respect to timing and intensity. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions continue this afternoon and through the early evening. Overnight, ceilings lower with increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching system. MVFR conditions move in around 8z-10z and likely continue into mid-morning. Fog could be the limiting factor rather than ceilings for CHO. IFR conditions are possible for MRB and CHO, but confidence is low. Conditions look to improve by Friday afternoon, but gradually deteriorate through the evening. Sub-VFR conditions likely continue through much of Saturday.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday into Monday with an isolated chance for a shower, mainly near KCHO and points further south on Sunday. Winds out of the northeast on Sunday will begin turning more southeasterly later in the day on Monday.

MARINE
SCAs continue through 10PM this evening with gusty N/NE flow.
Winds diminish overnight, turning S/SE on Friday. Winds increase Saturday as low pressure passes to our south, likely necessitating SCAs once more.

SCA conditions may be possible Sunday afternoon with a tighter pressure gradient present over the waters. Better confidence in this would be across the open waters of the lower Tidal Potomac and central Chesapeake Bay. Northeasterly winds diminish Sunday night and become light and southeasterly heading into Monday afternoon and evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Waters levels will gradually decrease today with north to northeast flow behind departing low pressure.

Tidal anomalies will begin to rise again Friday and into the weekend given a fairly prolonged period of east to southeasterly onshore flow. A number of sites will return to Action stage, with the more sensitive locations pushing into Minor. Elevated water levels likely persist into Monday given little change in the overall wind direction.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.

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Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C., Tide feet

Chain Bridge
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Thu -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:04 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:24 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:23 PM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chain Bridge, D.C., Tide feet

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