Monday, January18, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Centreville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:11PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:10 PM EST (02:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 10:54PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 644 Pm Est Mon Jan 18 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Tuesday...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft. Scattered flurries.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
ANZ500 644 Pm Est Mon Jan 18 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. In the wake of the passage of upper level system, gusty winds will be widespread across the area waterways through this evening. High pressure builds to the south of our region through the early parts of this week. Small craft advisories likely Wednesday into Thursday, and possible again on Friday. There will also be potential gales on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centreville, MD
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location: 39.05, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 182331 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 631 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. A few weak upper air disturbances will affect our weather into Tuesday. A weak cold front will cross the area later Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week with cold air and gusty winds. Low pressure passes north of the area Thursday and Friday with another cold front crossing the region. High pressure returns for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 620 PM, a band of lake effect/enhanced snow continues to extent into portions of the Poconos and far northwestern New Jersey. The flow is forecast to back some to more westerly resulting in a weakening trend and a shift northward some by later this evening. Main impacts are in the higher terrain where temperatures are coldest with a quick coating to an inch (Poconos), along with rapid changes in visibility. The band has broken up more as it moves across portions of far northern New Jersey. For the latest update, extended the likely PoPs a bit longer across portions of the southern Poconos and these then decrease into the chance range eastward. The forecast is then dry overnight. Made some adjustments to the hourly grids based on the current conditions and trends. Clouds are dissipating more now south of the ongoing aforementioned band as we have lost the daytime heating.

Otherwise, a cold front continues to settle across the northeast states with a weak surface trough approaching from the west. The cold front just to our north will settle a little farther south, and will likely make its way into northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey this evening. A gusty at times west-northwest will continue to diminish across the region through the night.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. On Tuesday, we remain under a west to northwest flow at the surface, with a westerly flow aloft. A couple of short wave/vorticity impulses, will move across the area during the day, which should mostly just lead to an increase in cloud cover. However, lapse rates steepen slightly across the Poconos, while there will be a slight increase in low level moisture as well. So there will be a slight chance of flurries late in the day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Tuesday night through Wednesday is setting up to be the most active period of the extended as a mid level trough is expected to swing a cold front through the region. PWAT values will be quite low so there may not be much in the way of precip however there is some modest RH in the column across NY into northern PA and NJ so we can't rule out snow showers during the overnight hours.

Low level lapse rates will be quite steep with some instability aloft so its certainly not out of the question we could see a brief squall over the Poconos. With a 700mb jet of 40-50 kts passing overhead we'll likely see some of those winds start to mix down and thus I've keep mention of 25 to 30 kt gusts through the morning and into the afternoon. Its certainly possible we could see something stronger but at this time I think we'll probably only mix to about 800mb. That should still lead to breezy conditions but fall short of any wind advisory criteria.

Through the rest of the week the we'll be under generally fast zonal flow with high pressure building in from the northern Plains. After the weekend another low pressure system will likely start to impact the region but there's plenty of discrepancy between longer range guidance so I've offered more of a persistence/climo forecast with a slight chance for rain/snow.

Temperatures will be on the chilly and brisk side Wednesday before starting to moderating heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR. West-northwest winds 8-12 knots with local gusts up to 20 knots early this evening diminishing to around 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . VFR. Westerly winds around 5 knots increase to 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots by 17z. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Tuesday night through Wednesday . VFR. A couple snow showers across the southern Poconos possible. Gusty west northwesterly winds Wed up to 30kts.

Thursday through Friday . VFR. A couple snow showers far N/W possible Thu afternoon. Gusty winds.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory now in effect as winds are expected to increase to 15 to 25 kt (possibly with a few higher gusts) this evening before a gradual weakening trend overnight on lower Delaware Bay and the Atlantic waters. It will remain in effect through 6 AM Tuesday (though this may be a tad long in duration). Sub-advisory conditions are expected on upper Delaware Bay.

Seas should generally range from 3 to 5 feet through tonight.

Outlook . A prolonged period of offshore SCA conditions with 25-30 kt gusts are expected for much of the upcoming week. Occasional gale force gusts may be possible Wednesday afternoon with otherwise generally quiet sensible weather.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ431-450>455.

Synopsis . Deal Near Term . Gorse/Robertson Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Deal Aviation . Deal/Gorse Marine . Deal/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi59 min NW 12 G 15 40°F 1016.2 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi53 min 40°F 22°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi53 min WSW 8 G 11 38°F 1016.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi71 min W 14 G 16 39°F 42°F1017.3 hPa (+3.5)20°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 27 mi53 min W 9.9 G 11 39°F 1016.4 hPa
FSNM2 27 mi53 min W 13 G 15 1015.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 31 mi53 min NW 4.1 G 7 38°F 1016 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi53 min W 12 G 14 41°F 1016.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 36 mi59 min W 6 G 11 39°F 1015.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 39 mi53 min NW 7.8 G 7.8 40°F 41°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi101 min NW 6 39°F 1016 hPa19°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi59 min W 15 G 18 40°F 1015.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi59 min 39°F 1014.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 45 mi53 min NW 8 G 13 38°F 1015 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD15 mi16 minW 7 G 1510.00 miFair37°F23°F56%1017.3 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi16 minW 610.00 miFair39°F21°F48%1018.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD22 mi17 minW 610.00 miFair38°F21°F51%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE6SE6S7S7CalmSW3CalmNW4W4W6W5W6W6W8W8W6W4W6W4NW10W7W6W6W8
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Maryland
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Centreville Landing
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:04 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:30 AM EST     1.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:54 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:57 PM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.50.2-0-0.1-0.10.20.50.8110.90.60.30-0.2-0.2-0.10.20.611.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:46 AM EST     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:09 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:16 AM EST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:35 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:20 PM EST     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:11 PM EST     0.62 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:55 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.6-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.60.80.70.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.30.50.60.60.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.