Tuesday, October19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Centreville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:21PM Tuesday October 19, 2021 5:36 PM EDT (21:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:12PMMoonset 5:08AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 437 Pm Edt Tue Oct 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 437 Pm Edt Tue Oct 19 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through Wednesday then slowly shift off shore by early Thursday morning. Multiple cold fronts move through our region late Thursday through Saturday morning. Small craft advisories may be necessary Thursday and Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centreville, MD
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location: 39.05, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 191910 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 310 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain centered over the Southeast through Wednesday before shifting offshore Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will move through the region Thursday night as weak low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. High pressure will build in behind the front, but a couple of upper level disturbances will affect the area over the weekend. An area of low pressure may approach early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of mid afternoon, high pressure centered near the SE CONUS while low pressure lingers over Atlantic Canada. This set up is still maintaining a modest pressure gradient with the result being breezy W/NW winds. These winds have also ushered in dry air with dew points only in the upper 30s to low 40s.

The aformentioned high continues to settle to our south tonight with winds once again diminishing after sunset. There will also be a warm front passing eastward to our north so it won't be as cool as this morning despite the mainly clear skies continuing. Expect lows ranging mostly from the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

Another pleasant day on the way for Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s for most areas. There will still be a bit of a breeze though with west winds around 10 to 15 mph.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Surface high pressure will shift offshore of the Carolinas on Wednesday night, while some ridging begins to build in aloft. A quiet night is expected with lows bottoming out in the upper 40s and low 50s.

For Thursday, a weak and transient ridge slides over the mid- Atlantic. Modest height rises, combined with a shift to southwesterly flow, will promote a little more warming. Highs in the mid 70s are expected in many areas, with some upper 70s possible. We continue to expect a cold front to approach by Thursday evening and overnight as weak and fast-moving low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. With limited moisture and meager dynamics associated with the front, this will not be a significant event for us. The daytime hours Thursday should stay entirely dry, and it will be another beautiful day with more of a late summer feel. Even heading into the overnight, shower coverage will probably be quite minimal especially with the unfavorable diurnal timing. Forcing is a little better to the north, so have some chc PoPs there, but otherwise it is slgt chc or less with a mostly dry frontal passage. Lows Thursday night will be warmer than the prior several nights with more clouds and a light southwest breeze continuing.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Overview .

The long range continues to look mainly uneventful, with a cooling trend still expected. There remains a good deal of run-to-run inconsistency in the models, though it seems they are gradually converging on the more likely outcomes at least through Sunday. The main source of uncertainty continues to be upper level low pressure over southern Canada and how it will interact with fast-moving shortwaves riding across the northern tier of the US. We should see a general trend for a deepening trough and a build-up of colder air to our northwest, which will gradually progress south and east. How deep and how far south the troughing extends remains in question, and that will affect our temperatures. It still looks like we will follow a gradual, methodical cooling trend from Friday through the weekend, with cooler air slowly oozing into the region. The overall appearance of the guidance and the forecast grids today has swung a little bit back to the colder side, and would raise the possibility of frost/freeze concerns in some areas by late in the weekend. Regarding precipitation chances, the overall pattern remains drier than normal. The long term period is unlikely to be entirely dry, but there are also still no glaring signals for any widespread soaking rain events, as we continue what has become a fairly sustained dry spell.

Dailies .

Friday-Friday night . Behind the frontal system from Thursday night, dry weather is expected Friday. Winds will turn more west to west-northwest, but as discussed above, the better source region of colder air remains well to our northwest. Temperatures will cool a few degrees compared to Thursday, but it still looks above normal for the season, upper 60s and low 70s. There is still a chance for a wave of low pressure to affect the region Friday night, but it will likely remain mostly to our south. A northern stream shortwave could bring an isolated shower to northern portions of the area also, but the night should be mostly dry overall with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Saturday-Sunday . Multiple fast-moving shortwaves appear likely to race through the increasingly cyclonic flow aloft on Saturday. Lift from these disturbances combined with cooling temperatures aloft could allow for one or more rounds of showers to affect the region. It definitely does not look like a washout, but the day may have an unsettled feel with more clouds and a chance for a passing shower or two. Highs should also be several degrees cooler as northwest flow and associated cold advection becomes more established. Low to mid 60s are likely in most places, but northern and western areas could stay in the 50s. For Sunday, there is pretty strong agreement for a dry day with northwest flow. Temperatures will take another small step downward, and it may end up as the coolest day of the stretch, with highs only on either side of 60 and a cool breeze. We will have to watch the overnight lows during this period as well. The air mass will likely become cold enough to support frost/freeze potential. If winds and sky cover cooperate, headlines may be needed at least in the usual cooler areas, but that remains to be seen.

Monday-Tuesday . Uncertainty is high by early next week. 19.12z guidance is a little more progressive on getting a pattern change underway, as we'll likely transition to warmer weather next week as expansive ridging builds out of the central US. That may be preceded by a rain event, but the details of that are very unclear at this point, with all of the models looking quite different. Monday still looks to be a cool day, similar to Sunday, and beyond then we may begin to see the warming trend begin.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon . VFR with west to northwest winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible at times. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR with light west winds. High confidence.

Wednesday . VFR with west winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt possible. High confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday night . VFR. Winds light and variable or light southwest. High confidence.

Thursday-Thursday night . Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a rain shower Thursday night. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt, slightly stronger Thursday afternoon. High confidence.

Friday-Friday night . Mainly VFR. A chance of showers Friday night mainly near MIV, ACY, and over Delmarva. Light westerly winds Friday becoming light and variable or calm overnight. Moderate confidence.

Saturday-Sunday . Mainly VFR. A chance of showers Saturday which could produce localized restrictions, but little impact is anticipated. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic coastal waters continues through tonight as winds should ramp up again later this afternoon into this evening.

For Delaware Bay, conditions should generally be just below advisory criteria through tonight, though a few gusts to 25 kt may occur at times.

Winds should diminish once again towards daybreak with Wednesday featuring west winds generally around 10 to 15 gusting up to 20 knots.

Outlook .

Wednesday night . Sub-SCA conditions. West-southwest wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

Thursday-Thursday night . A period of marginal SCA conditions is possible on the Atlantic coastal waters from late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Southwest winds will gust to near 25 kt, with seas increasing to 4 to 5 ft.

Friday . If advisory level conditions do develop Thursday night, they should diminish by Friday morning. West-southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Friday night-Sunday . No marine headlines are anticipated with light seas and a transition to northwest flow.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Fitzsimmons Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Fitzsimmons/O'Brien Marine . Fitzsimmons/O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi55 min WNW 11G13 69°F 65°F1017.3 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi49 min 71°F 45°F
44063 - Annapolis 21 mi43 min WNW 12G14 69°F 67°F1 ft1018.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi49 min WSW 4.1G8.9 71°F 69°F1017.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi37 min WSW 12G13 71°F 68°F1018.5 hPa (-1.4)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 27 mi49 min W 15G17 71°F 1016.9 hPa
FSNM2 27 mi49 min W 16G20 71°F 1016.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 31 mi49 min WNW 7G12 73°F 72°F1016.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi55 min WSW 8G12 70°F 66°F1018 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 36 mi49 min WSW 6G8.9 70°F 67°F1016.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 39 mi43 min W 12G16 68°F 69°F1 ft1019.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi49 min W 14G15 68°F 66°F1017.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi49 min 70°F 67°F1015.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 45 mi49 min W 6G13 69°F 67°F1016.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi49 min SW 9.9G13 69°F 1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi47 minWSW 710.00 miFair70°F46°F43%1019 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD22 mi43 minW 710.00 miFair72°F43°F35%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S7SE6S5S8S9S10S11S10
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S7S6SE5SE4SE6SE6SE9SE10S60
1 day agoSW10
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2 days agoS3S6S5S7SE60SE3NW300E30SE4SE5S7S9S8S9S7W6S6S10
G17
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G17

Tide / Current Tables for Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Maryland
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Centreville Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:07 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:06 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:03 AM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:01 AM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:19 PM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:46 PM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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