NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Forecast remains on track. Will make minor adjustments to hourly grids based on the latest surface obs. Otherwise, no significant changes will be made.

Low pressure will meander well off the New Jersey through the period. Meanwhile, high pressure will build down from eastern Canada into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. No significant changes with the late evening update.

Should continue to see dry conditions through at least mid day Friday. Some guidance is depicting fog overnight, but though dew point depressions will be low and winds should be relatively light, high clouds may somewhat limit fog development. Also, it appears that any saturated layers will be very shallow. For now, have kept a mention of patchy fog for portions of the region.

For Friday afternoon, a few different high res models depict widely scattered showers. Thus, forecast has a slight chance (20%) of rain primarily along and east of the I-95 corridor.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Friday's highs will be in the low 70s to low 80s, slightly cooler than today.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
An area of low pressure remains offshore of the east coast Friday night, as high pressure noses its way down the eastern seaboard from eastern Canada. This high gets squeezed by Saturday through Sunday as a weak disturbance moves into the area. This disturbance does not looks to be any frontal passage, but more of a short wave/vorticity impulse passage. So there will be a chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday, albeit 20-30 percent at most.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
By Sunday and Monday, the mid-level disturbance moves out of the area and high pressure noses its way back down into the region. This will bring dry conditions back to the area.
However, the dry weather may not last long as some much needed rain may, possibly, move into the area. A messy frontal system is forecast to move eastward as a an area of low pressure moves across the Ohio River Vally and into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday through Thursday. The front may not actually make it to the area before a secondary low pressure potentially develops and impacts the area around Thursday. Cross our fingers this comes to fruition as conditions have been abnormally dry for the last month for many areas.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Some guidance is depicting BR, primarily in locations more prone to radiational fog like KMIV, KRDG, and KABE. However, moisture looks like it will be very shallow, so if any fog develops, expect localize shallow ground fog.
Consequently, risk is too low at any one site to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds 5 kt or less. Direction should favor NE, but there could be a period of variable direction. Moderate confidence.

Friday...If any fog develops overnight, it may linger for an hour or two after 12Z, otherwise VFR is expected. NE winds 5 to 10 kts with some gusts up to 15 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday...VFR conditions expected.

Saturday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible with a chance of showers.

Sunday...MVFR or IFR conditions possible early, improving to VFR.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR conditions expected.

Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR or IFR conditions possible with a chance of showers.

MARINE
SCA conditions, primarily for elevated seas will continue on the Atlantic coastal waters through this period and into much, if not all of the weekend. As for winds, N to NE winds will briefly relax this evening, but pick back up and become 10 to 20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt for our ocean waters. Lighter winds expected across Delaware Bay.

Outlook...

Friday night...Small Craft Advisory in effect due to seas.

Saturday-Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely continue due to seas.

Rip currents...

On Friday, winds become northeast and will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Breaking waves will be a bit higher, generally 4 to 6 ft. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for the Delaware Beaches.

The HIGH risk will continue on Saturday, and may continue into Sunday as well.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Continued onshore flow will result in water piling up and unable to drain within tidal waterways. At least minor tidal flooding is expected for the next several high tide cycles for portions of our area. Moderate tidal flooding may occur for portions of our area this weekend.

Coastal Flood Advisories are posted for the New Jersey coast, Delaware Coast, and part of the Delaware Bay (Cumberland County in New Jersey and Kent County in Delaware) as at least minor tidal flooding is expected around high tide through the end of the weekend. Some guidance indicates moderate flooding may occur for some locations as early as the Friday morning high tide cycle. However, confidence in this remains low at this time; will stick with the advisory for now. A short-fused upgrade may occur during the next update. Confidence is better for moderate coastal flooding to occur with high tide cycles this weekend.
Have issued a Coastal Flood Watch as a result to cover the Saturday and Sunday morning high tide cycles.

For the tidal Delaware River, in general, it looks like water levels will stay just below advisory thresholds, but will be watching trends closely.

For the northeastern shore of Maryland, am getting increasingly concerned that there will be minor flooding over the weekend.
Latest high tide cycle was considerably higher than most guidance. Will watch trends overnight to see if this low bias continues.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ012>014- 020>027.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for NJZ012>014-020>027.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through Saturday evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for DEZ002>004.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through Saturday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>453.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ454-455.