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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 934 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.

ANZ500 934 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a quick moving low pressure system will cross the area through early Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region Thursday through Friday night. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday night.

FXUS61 KPHI 051148 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 648 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds into the region from Quebec on Tuesday. Another weak low will develop to our south Tuesday night through Wednesday as it moves off the North Carolina coast then out to sea. The end of the work week into the first half of next weekend should then be dominated by high pressure. A deep area of low looks to then lift north and west of our region by late weekend into early next week as it moves through the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A brief period of shortwave ridging this morning will give way to 80-100 meter 12 hour height falls by this evening downstream of a digging, positively tilted upper trough. A weak surface low will follow suit and dive southeast out of the Midwest but weaken as it does so. With flow remaining out of the northwest, we won't see a notable increase in low-level moisture, but moisture will increase in the mid-levels coincident with PVA downstream of the trough axis, and the most notable sensible weather of the day will be clouds thickening and lowering through the day. Not expecting any precipitation through the daytime hours as the low tracks to our southwest and really starts to fall apart as it hits the Appalachians. Erred on the cool side of guidance closer to NBM10th with highs in the low to mid 40s owing to the cloud coverage and weak cold advection aloft.

A secondary center of low pressure will develop off the coast of the Carolinas tonight and a north to northwest pressure gradient will tighten between it and building high pressure to our southwest, keeping at least a light breeze in place overnight. A shortwave embedded in the trough will cross through just south Delmarva around midnight, and we'll also be placed just on the periphery of the left exit region of a departing jet streak. This may be enough to squeeze out some precipitation in southeast PA/Delmarva, but with forcing from the surface low likely a good distance offshore and near surface moisture still lacking, not expecting coverage to be too widespread. That said, forecast soundings do show the entire profile below freezing with surface temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark in southeast PA, so if any wet bulb effects occur with the near-surface dry air, some flurries/light snow showers may result; it will be too warm across Delmarva for anything but rain. Not expecting any impacts from snow showers if they develop as even NBM 90th percentile snow amount is zilch. NBM probability of measurable liquid precip is 20-30% across Delmarva, so will follow suit with its slight chance PoP mention here. With lingering mid-level moisture, clouds should be around overnight though there may be some breaks as surface ridging noses in from the southwest. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Could see some of the light precip from the aforementioned shortwave trough and coastal low linger into Wednesday morning, but impacts will remain limited. The best chances for seeing any precip will be over Delmarva and far southern NJ but even around Philly there could be a few rain drops or snowflakes. A few of our higher elevations across the Pocono Plateau and Lehigh Valley could see a few flurries as well with modest NW flow behind the departing low, though any precipitation will be fighting with a dry airmass. By Wednesday afternoon, some partial clearing may occur but the weak December sun combined with brisk northerly winds will mean highs only reach the upper 30 to mid 40s.

High pressure will ridge northward from the Southeastern US Wednesday night, helping clear skies and allow winds to decouple.
This favorable radiational cooling setup will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s as a result.

Most of the region will see high pressure dominate into Thursday as well, though a weak shortwave through embedded within an upper level jet streak will move across southern New England and clip the Poconos and Lehigh Valley with some light rain/snow showers or flurries. Any precip here is not expected to become impactful. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees below climo during the afternoon with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s once again. High pressure will continue to dominate into Thursday night with dry conditions and an overnight low in the mid to upper 20s once again.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A mid-level ridge is expected to move over the region on Friday and build into Saturday. The ridge continues to amplify offshore Saturday night and Sunday as a trough digs across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and shifts eastward. The trough is forecast to move through the region Sunday night. What looks to be weak transient ridging or at least zonal flow should be in place for Monday.

In terms of sensible weather or impacts, things should be fairly benign Friday and Saturday with gradual warming bringing afternoon highs into the 50s. The strengthening low across the Midwest will begin to approach overnight Saturday into Sunday. Highest PoPs at this time are on Sunday, though there remains some model spread on whether or not the heaviest precip arrives in the morning or afternoon. Regardless, this early winter cold front could be a bit dynamic as surface low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes and tilting becomes negative, allowing robust warm air advection and moisture advection to ensue. Will need to continue monitoring this system for any changes that would raise concerns for heavier rainfall or stronger winds. Highs on Sunday could reach into the upper 50s and low 60s before the cold front pushes through. Monday will see cooler temperatures near climo behind the departing cold front.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...VFR. CIGs will lower through the day to 5-6kft but chances of MVFR remain very low (<10%). Northwesterly wind 5-10 knots.
Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. CIGs remaining in the 5-6kft range. Light northerly wind 5 knots or less. A widely light scattered rain or snow shower possible, mainly for KILG/KMIV/KACY. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, but mostly cloudy with a few light rain or snow showers possible in the morning. Winds mainly north to northwest around 5 to 10 knots with some higher gusts in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Thursday and Thursday night...Mainly VFR as high pressure dominates.
Winds WSW to SW mainly 5 to 10 knots or less. High confidence.

Friday and Friday night...VFR conditions expected. S to SW winds 10 kts or less. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR conditions expected. SW winds winds 5 to 15 kts.
High confidence.

MARINE
No marine headlines expected. Northwesterly wind 5-10 knots with periodic gusts to 15-20 knots possible, particularly early Tuesday morning and late Tuesday night. Seas 3-4 feet Tuesday morning, decreasing to 2-3 feet through Tuesday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to develop as north to northwest winds gust up to 25 knots. There may also be some rain/snow showers over the waters during this time. Seas 3-4 feet.

Thursday and Thursday night...Marine conditions drop below Small Craft criteria. WNW winds 10 to 15 kts turns W around 5-10 kts at night. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Friday and Friday night...Sub-SCA conditions expected. S to SW winds 5 to 15 kts. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. SW winds 5 to 15 kts. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Centreville Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:15 AM EST     1.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:44 PM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:42 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:28 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:01 AM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:39 AM EST     0.69 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:54 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:05 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:45 PM EST     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:30 PM EST     0.50 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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