Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:39 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM

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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 134 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
This afternoon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Mon night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Tue - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 134 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will progress offshore this weekend. High pressure will build over the waters on Monday and Tuesday, before a strong cold front approaches during the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters this weekend.

FXUS61 KPHI 181701 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 101 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure slides to our south over the weekend.
High pressure then builds across our area early next week before shifting southeast. A cold front then moves through Thursday into Thursday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
100 PM...Rain has come in a bit faster and more aggressively than previously forecast so we raised POPs some with the early afternoon update. An area of rain is currently moving across SE PA into southern NJ with even some heavier echos and moderate rain being reported in spots. This batch of rain will continue to move through during the early to mid afternoon before starting to diminish but it will be followed by some additional scattered showers through the late afternoon. Overall, best chances for precip look to be through around 5 PM or so with highest POPs (around 60 to 70 percent) over SE PA, southern NJ, and Delmarva. POPs are lower (around 30 to 40 percent ) heaving farther north and east into portions of NE PA and NW NJ as most of the rain will either weaken/diminish as it moves in or stay just south. Also worth mentioning is that no thunder is expected anywhere in the area today as we just don't have or won't have the instability. With all the clouds around, temps won't be very warm, but not much different from what much of the region experienced yesterday... upper 60s with a few 70s. Today, however, best chance of 70s will be in interior central and northern New Jersey, where precip likely takes longest to reach (if it does at all).

As our upper forcing heads east out to sea overnight tonight, shower chances end, and while we don't expect much clearing overnight as the winds just don't provide any push of drier air behind the upper trough, any breaks could help some patchy fog develop, especially where rain falls today. Right now, the best odds appear to be northwest of I-95 across the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, though also parts of the Maryland eastern shore. Lows mostly in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
By Sunday, the trough will be off shore as mid an upper level short wave ridge builds closer to our region. Consequently, expect mostly dry conditions Sunday into Monday with a gradual warming trend. A few deterministic models are depicting precip through the first half of the day on Sunday, but that seems unlikely given the large scale subsidence, so continued to leave out any mention of shower chances.

Depending on few clouds there will be Sunday night, fog is possible, but low confidence on how widespread it will be at this point.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Summary: Main focus through the long term is on the cold front which is expected to cross through the region Thursday into Thursday night, bringing a chance for thunderstorms.

Details:

Tuesday and Wednesday...Here's something we haven't had too many opportunities to say lately - temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday should be above normal, especially for inland areas. Mid and upper level ridge, combined with southerly return flow will kick off the warming trend into Tuesday. The one caveat is that it looks like this will be a good set up both days for a sea breeze. Depending on early it develops and how far inland it reaches, portions of the coastal plains could be near or even slightly below normal for afternoon highs. In general, expect dry conditions both days, though if a pre-frontal trough trends faster, may see some initial showers and storms move into the region region during the later half of the day on Wednesday.

Thursday and Thursday night...Most deterministic guidance seems to be favoring timing of the cold front during the later half of the day or Thursday night. As mentioned by the previous shift, the mid and upper level trough will generally be west and north of our region, so better synoptic scale forcing will be outside of our region. That being said, should have enough instability and low level convergence (especially with the front) to support at least scattered thunderstorm development in our region.

Friday...with stronger forcing outside of our region, the front (though it should clear our region), may still be nearby on Friday.
This will have implications for precip chances (we'll keep a 20 - 30 percent chance of rain through the day), and temperatures, although expected to be slightly cooler than Thursday (with highs generally in the 70s, may not be as dramatic as we would normally see with a cold front.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...Showers and continuing easterly to northeasterly flow will result in mainly MVFR conditions this afternoon for most sites. Winds fairly light and variable at times but overall, a weak easterly flow will prevail. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...scattered showers end but MVFR cigs linger. May be some patchy fog to reduce vsby esp NW of I-95 terminals.
Continued light/variable flow with a general easterly persuasion. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mostly VFR. Fog (MVFR or IFR conditions) possible Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR conditions expected.

MARINE
Ocean wave heights may flirt with 5 feet early this morning but should generally subside thereafter, so no plans for a Small Craft Advisory at present. Otherwise, northeasterly winds will prevail through tonight with speeds of 5-10 kts today increasing slightly to 10-15 kts tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria.

Rip Currents...

A prolonged period of N to NE winds at 5 to 10 mph through the weekend along with 3 to 4 ft seas will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents on Saturday and Sunday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cliffs Wharf
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Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:55 AM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:32 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:00 PM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:11 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cliffs Wharf, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:30 AM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:54 AM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:46 PM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:42 PM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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