Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arden on the Severn, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A positively tilted trough is currently tracking across central CONUS while pushing a cold front draped from Texas to the Great Lakes eastward. Current radar imagery as of 1:30PM shows convection tracking ahead of the cold front into New England.
The majority of CAMs have convection primarily staying north of the forecast area in PA, however, CAMs continue to show showers and thunderstorms impacting western MD late this evening. SPC has western MD in a marginal risk for severe weather this evening with the primary threats being damaging winds gusts.
Outside of western MD, cloudy skies and dry conditions are expected through the overnight.

The cold front will approach the forecast area this evening, before dropping through from northwest to southeast overnight.
Winds shift to northwesterly late tonight behind the front.
Outside of shower activity in the northwestern portions of the forecast area, dry conditions continue overnight. Low temperatures will be in the 60s for most with higher elevations staying in the 50s.



SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure builds to the north tomorrow with primarily dry conditions expected. The exception will be west of the Blue Ridge and south of US-50. The aforementioned cold front will be stalled to our south, however, the proximity of the front combined with peak daytime heating may result in showers and thunderstorms in that area. Should convection initiate, the greatest threat would be hail given the low freezing levels and mid-level shear. High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s for most with those at higher elevations staying in the 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s.

On Monday, a low pressure system tracks northeast across the Great Lakes with the associated cold front approaching the forecast area from the west. The aforementioned front to the south, will lift north through the Mid-Atlantic as a warm front ahead of the low pressure system. During the day, dry conditions are expected with high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. Those in NE MD and/or at higher elevations will stay in the upper 60s. Precipitation chances increase from northwest to southeast overnight as the cold front approaches. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front draped over the area early Tuesday will be pushed south during the afternoon by a reinforcing upper trough. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, mostly along/south of I-66/US-48. Very warm conditions as highs reach the upper 70s to low 80s. While the cold front is forecast to move into southern VA, there could be some lingering showers in Central VA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Beyond that, a surface high over the region brings dry conditions Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Highs in the 70s to low 80s for the middle of next week, with overnight lows in the 50s to around 60F. Another cold front approaches late Friday and brings the next round of showers and possible thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
West/southwest winds continue this evening, with gusts diminishing after sunset. Light winds are expected overnight as a weak cold front pushes through the forecast area. Winds shift to northwesterly behind the front overnight. On Sunday, high pressure shifts to the north, with northerly winds shifting to easterly winds throughout the day. VFR conditions are expected across all terminals today and Sunday. On Monday, winds shift to southeasterly resulting in increased moisture and low level clouds. With primarily VFR conditions expected, MVFR ceilings are possible.

A cold front sagging south through the area on Tuesday could produce scattered showers/thunderstorms, though the highest coverage is likely to be south of most of the terminals. Will have to see for any impacts at CHO. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the middle of next week.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through this evening as a cold front approaches and moves over the waters. Behind the front, winds become northwesterly and are expected to diminish to sub-SCA criteria early Sunday morning. Winds shift to northerly and then northeasterly on Sunday, before becoming east/southeasterly overnight. On Monday, SCA criteria winds are possible as winds channel in southeasterly flow. Winds shift to southerly Monday night and into Tuesday, with SCA criteria winds continuing in the southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay.

Favorable marine conditions possible for the middle of next week, though gusts could approach 15 knots Tuesday afternoon. A cold front sagging south through the waters through the day on Tuesday could produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any strong storm could pose a localized hazard to boaters. The front pushes south of the area Wednesday morning as winds turn north, then east behind the front on Wednesday afternoon.

CLIMATE
Very mild conditions this morning kept low temperatures in the 60s across the area. If these temperatures hold through midnight local time tonight (1 AM EDT), there could be several warm minimum temperature records that are tied or broken. Below is a list of daily record warm minimum temperatures for April 19, as well as the observed minimum temperature so far today (as of 2 PM EDT).

Dulles (IAD), Annapolis (NAK), and Hagerstown (HGR) are on pace to set new daily warm minimum records, while Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) is on pace to tie the daily warm minimum record.

Martinsburg (MRB) is not only on pace to break the daily record for April 19, but if the 69F holds it will set a new all-time warm minimum temperature record for the month of April (beating out 68F from April 18, 1896).

Apr 19 Apr 19 Climate Site Warm Low Low Temp Record Observed Washington National (DCA) 69F (1896) 67F Washington Dulles (IAD) 64F (2019) 67F - Daily Record Possible Baltimore (BWI) 70F (1896) 69F Baltimore Inner Hrb (DMH) 70F (1985) 70F - Tie Daily Record Possible Martinsburg (MRB) 64F (1896) 69F - Monthly Record Possible Annapolis (NAK) 65F (1899) 68F - Daily Record Possible Hagerstown (HGR) 64F (2019) 68F - Daily Record Possible Charlottesville (CHO) 66F (2019) 64F

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>543.