Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Withamsville, OH

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 9:08PM Monday June 21, 2021 2:31 AM EDT (06:31 UTC) Moonrise 4:46PMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Withamsville, OH
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location: 39.08, -84.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 210542 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight before becoming more widespread Monday afternoon and evening. Rain will linger Monday night before much cooler and drier air filters in for Tuesday through midweek. Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Showers in west central Ohio will be moving out of the area within the next hour or so. MCS tracking across Illinois will weaken as it approaches the area late tonight, but some showers and thunderstorms may make it into western counties towards daybreak. It will be another warm and muggy night with lows in the lower 70s at most locations.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Even with a few lingering remnants of the MCS possible in northern parts of the region Monday morning, most spots will be dry through about noon at which point diurnally-driven destabilization and the arrival of the front from the W/NW will be enough to initiate fairly widespread convection near/south/east of I-71. This will occur coincident with height falls as S/W energy rounds the base of the digging trof moving east into the region. This will be more than enough forcing to initiate widespread convection near/south of I-71, with much of the activity potentially focusing near the Ohio River but east of I-71.

Despite the evolution of moderate instability, with SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg in the prefrontal environment, the LL bulk shear is not /quite/ as impressive despite sufficient deep layer vertical shear. LL flow is decent but not overly strong with H8 flow upwards of 25-30kts with LL layer flow that is largely parallel with the initiating boundary. So despite the impressive instby and good forcing, the magnitude and orientation of the LL flow/shear may thankfully limit the severe threat beyond what would otherwise be the case (with less than ideal LL convergence). This is not to say there is not a severe threat, /because certainly there is/ with damaging wind and some large hail being the primary concerns. The parallel LL flow-boundary interaction may be supportive of some bowing cold-pool driven evolution, especially across parts of N/NE KY and south-central OH during the early/mid afternoon. Do think the MRGL/SLGHT risks on SWODY2 are well-warranted and well-placed. The severe threat in these areas will likely evolve from approximately 12 PM to 5 PM before subsiding rather quickly from W to E by late afternoon into the evening. Boundary parallel storm motions may support some training of convection within a corridor from N/KY to S cntrl OH, with locally heavy rain and flooding possible in these areas with very efficient rain rates in an environment with deep WCDs.

Highs on Monday will vary quite substantially, with extensive cloud cover in the NW through the day limiting temps to mainly the mid/upper 70s with locales in NE KY/south-central OH getting close to the 90-degree mark with some sunshine through the morning hours.

Will see some overrunning precip linger after the FROPA late evening through most of the overnight period, although it should be mainly light in nature as it trails the front and drifts E/NE through this time period. Much drier/cooler air filters in Monday night from the NW, with daybreak temps around 50 degrees in WC OH and the mid/upper 50s SE of I-71.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A broad upper trough and lower than normal geopotential heights will be evident across the Eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Height rises will then be observed into Friday as an upper ridge pushes east. Another trough is expected to follow for next weekend.

After lingering showers move east Tuesday morning behind a departing cold front, surface high pressure forming under the confluent flow at the base of the initial upper trough will provide dry weather Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday night as moisture increases on a deep southwest flow well ahead of the next cold front approaching from the west. The threat for showers and thunderstorms increases through Saturday as the cold front crosses Ohio. PWAT over 1.5 inches coupled with rather weak shear and CAPE point to heavy rain rather than severe thunderstorms. A drying trend is forecast for Sunday while the cold front nears the Atlantic Coast.

Temperatures start well below normal Tuesday with highs reaching around 70. A warming trend to the mid 80s is expected by Thursday under warm advection and insolation. Temperatures may then retreat to the lower 80s by Saturday and the upper 70s Sunday due to clouds, precip and modest cold advection.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the overnight hours, with some mid and high clouds, and SSW winds increasing toward daybreak. Some gusts to around 20 knots are expected by 12Z.

Strong storms over northern Indiana are expected to weaken and perhaps at least partially dissipate before they arrive to this area. Nonetheless, there remains some chance that showers or storms could arrive by mid to late morning, prompting a VCSH in the TAFs. After that, there is a greater chance of new shower and storm development in the early afternoon. This period has been indicated with a -SHRA VCTS and MVFR ceilings, timed out to the most likely timing for storm development. Wind gusts will also get well into the 20 knot range during this time frame.

The storms should move out of the area by late afternoon, but some additional light rain may move back in after 00Z, indicated by another -RA or VCSH group. Winds will switch to the north tonight, diminishing to around 10 knots. OUTLOOK. Thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . KC NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . KC LONG TERM . Coniglio AVIATION . Hatzos


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH8 mi39 minS 810.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1004.6 hPa
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY21 mi40 minSSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds76°F68°F77%1004 hPa
Butler County Regional Airport, OH23 mi39 minVar 510.00 miFair79°F68°F69%1004.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLUK

Wind History from LUK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmS7SW6SW11S7SW9S12
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1 day agoS14N11CalmNE5W6CalmCalmS9
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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