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FXUS61 KILN 280725 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 225 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold air mass will remain in place across the region today.
Temperatures will then moderate through the rest of the week with a good chance for rain returning Thursday night into Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A mid level trough axis will swing east across the region this morning. This, combined with cyclonic low level flow and CAA, will result in a fair amount of stratocumulus clouds and scattered snow flurries across the area through the morning hours. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to drop off through mid morning in the CAA pattern and this will combine with gusty west to northwest winds to produce single digit wind chills across much of the area this morning. As the trough axis shifts off to the west, we should see a clearing trend from southwest to northeast as we head through the afternoon and surface high pressure begins to build into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will remain seasonably cold with afternoon highs only in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Mid level ridging will begin to push east into the Ohio Valley later tonight and through the day on Wednesday. With a dry airmass in place, expect partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions. Meanwhile, the surface high pressure will push off to our southeast, leading to a tightening pressure gradient and breezy southwest winds across our area during the day on Wednesday. In the developing WAA pattern, temperatures will begin to moderate with highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
On Wednesday evening, the flow pattern over the eastern CONUS will be undergoing a transition, with troughing moving off the northeastern US coast. At the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure will be settling into the southeastern states, with height rises occurring over the Ohio Valley. Attention will then turn to the increasingly active southern stream. A shortwave over the desert southwest on Thursday morning will then move ENE through the southern plains on Thursday, on a trajectory toward the Ohio Valley by Friday. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this wave, and on the western periphery of the aforementioned surface high, will bring increasing theta-e into the Ohio Valley. Clouds and some precipitation chances are expected Thursday, with more widespread precipitation as the wave approaches on Thursday night into Friday.
The southwesterly flow on Thursday will bring temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s, along with some wind gusts of 25-30 MPH during the afternoon.

The initial band of rain, driven isentropically and by warm frontal processes aloft, is expected to set up in a SW-to-NE orientation on Thursday evening and overnight. There is still some model variability on the positioning of this feature, but it may primarily affect the northwestern half of the ILN forecast area. PoPs have been arranged to account for this, with a significant gradient in precipitation chances from Celina OH (high) to Portsmouth OH (low).
By 12Z Friday, however, a larger and more sustained area of forcing associated directly with the shortwave will bring widespread precipitation to the entirety of the ILN CWA. Rainfall amounts of over a half inch are possible. Hazardous weather, however, appears unlikely. Steady precipitation should come to an end by Friday evening.

Forecast confidence becomes significantly lower for Saturday and beyond, with considerable spread in model solutions beyond the passage of the Friday shortwave. The overall flow pattern appears likely to be characterized by fast WSW flow from the southern plains through the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. Less certain is how much moisture will remain in the boundary layer, and on timing out potential sources for forcing (or even phasing between the southern and northern streams). For now, keeping some low-end PoPs in for Sunday and Monday seems appropriate. There are no obvious signs of a significant drop in temperatures after the Friday system, so rain still appears likely to be the primary precipitation type for anything that moves in through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A mid level trough will pivot east across the region this morning. This will lead to some stratocumulus clouds through much of the morning, although there could be some breaks at times. Some MVFR cigs and a few flurries will also be possible at times this morning, particularly at the northern TAF sites.
Skies will then clear from southwest to northeast through the afternoon hours as high pressure begins to build into the region. West to northwest winds will remain gusty to around 20 knots through the morning hours before beginning to gradually diminish through the afternoon and into tonight.

OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday.
MVFR ceilings possible Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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