Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cape St. Claire, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:02PM Saturday August 15, 2020 1:25 PM EDT (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:21AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1038 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of today..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 1038 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move along a stationary front to our south today through Sunday. Onshore flow ahead of this system will increase tonight and continue into Sunday, with a small craft advisory in effect for that period. A cold front will approach early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape St. Claire, MD
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location: 39.09, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 151348 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 948 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will nose into our region from the northeast today. Meanwhile, low pressure is forecast to develop in the Carolinas before moving northeastward. The low is anticipated to pass off the Virginia coast on Sunday morning, then it should move slowly out to sea. A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to arrive on Monday night. The boundary is forecast to stall to our southeast for the middle and late parts of the new week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 945 am update: Radar is indicating some precipitation is moving into the southern third of the CWA this morning, but the drier low levels and general weak lift associated with the precipitation have not permitted much measurable precipitation from occurring (except for maybe far southern Delaware, where a couple gauges have registered a hundredth of an inch). With this likely to continue for the next few hours (and radar trends suggest precipitation will likely even diminish somewhat in the very near term), have added a mention of sprinkles to areas near/south of Philadelphia through early afternoon. Otherwise, did not change PoPs for now given the low probability of any tipping buckets for the next few hours. Rest of the forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion .

For today, high pressure will remain across eastern Canada and try to nose its way down the East Coast into the Mid-Atlantic region, while a cold front will remain to our south through the day. Meanwhile, the flow aloft will shift from a westerly direction, to more of a southwest flow by the afternoon. Several short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area through the day as well. Despite these short waves/vorticity impulses, much of the day is expected to be mostly rain free as the high nosing down into the area will likely keep drier air in place. However, late in the afternoon there could be some showers developing for portions of our western and southern zones as moisture begins to increase as the flow shifts to the southwest.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. An area of low pressure will move along the frontal boundary to our south from the Carolinas, to near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay by daybreak Sunday. As the low lifts northward, a surface trough may develop on the northern side of the low and move across our area overnight. As the low lifts northward and approaches our area overnight, moisture will be increasing north of the low, especially across eastern Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey where PW values approach and exceed 2 inches. Enhanced lift will move across the area as well as there will be several short wave/vorticity impulses moving across the area. As these features move across the area overnight, rain is expected to spread across much of the area, with the heaviest precipitation across the southern areas where the greatest lift and higher moisture combination will be. There is not much in the way of instability, so we do not have thunderstorms in the forecast, although a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A mid level trough is forecast to slide eastward from the Great Lakes on Sunday, settling over the northeastern states for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The feature is expected to lift to the northeast late in the week. The pattern will keep temperatures from getting excessively warm. Highs should favor the 70s on Sunday, and the 80s during the new week.

Surface low pressure is forecast to be centered near the mouth of Chesapeake Bay on Sunday morning. It is expected to drift northeastward to a point about 100 miles off the southern New Jersey coast on Sunday evening. The cloud and precipitation shield associated with the system is anticipated to affect our weather on Sunday. We are expecting a mostly cloudy sky along with rain showers. The rain may become moderate to heavy for a time in parts of northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. Those areas may also experience a few rumbles of thunder. The potential for significant rainfall and thunder decreases in eastern Pennsylvania, and central and northern New Jersey, farther from the low.

As the low moves out to sea on Sunday night, the precipitation and clouds should follow.

A cold front is forecast to approach from the northwest on Monday and it will likely arrive in our region on Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

There remains some uncertainty as to how far the cold front will progress to our southeast before stalling. It appears as though relatively dry air will work its way into our region for Tuesday. However, the boundary may drift back toward us for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms at that time.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR will continue today, although clouds will thicken and lower through the afternoon. Winds east-northeast or east 5 to 15 kt shifting more to an east-southeast direction during the afternoon. Speeds/gusts may approach 20 kt at times during the afternoon, especially at ACY. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR conditions start off during the evening hours, but ceilings will lower to MVFR later in the evening and overnight as rain begins to move into the area. IFR conditions are possible by daybreak, especially for portions of southern New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland as rain becomes heavier. Winds begin the evening out of the east to southeast around 5-10 knots, then shift to the northeast overnight around 5-10 knots.

Outlook .

Sunday . VFR/MVFR conditions with rain showers. IFR conditions are possible, especially around KMIV and KACY where the rain may become heavy at times. Northeast wind around 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Sunday night . Conditions improving to VFR with showers ending. Northeast to north wind around 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Medium to high confidence.

Monday night . Mainly VFR. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Medium to high confidence.

Tuesday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium to high confidence.

Tuesday night . Mainly VFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium to high confidence.

Wednesday . Mainly VFR. South wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Today-Tonight . Small Craft Advisory remain in effect for the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters as seas are expected to increase to 5-6 feet today and continue into tonight. Winds may also gust around 25 knots later today into tonight.

Outlook .

Sunday . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our ocean waters and for Delaware Bay. A northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots is expected.

Sunday night . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our ocean waters. A northeast wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots is expected.

Monday . Wind speeds and gusts are forecast to fall below 25 knots. However, wave heights on our ocean waters may remain around 5 feet, especially in the morning.

Monday night through Wednesday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip currents .

For today, there is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents. Northeasterly winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Breaking waves should be 3 to 5 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

For Sunday, there is a high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents. Northeasterly winds continue 15-20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Breaking waves building to 4 to 6 feet are anticipated with a short to medium period mainly wind wave from the east.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The northeast flow along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware this weekend will continue to cause water levels to build gradually. Astronomical tide heights will be on the increase as we approach Tuesday's new moon. The evening astronomical high tides are generally about a foot to a foot and a half higher than those in the morning.

Tidal departures were mainly in the +0.7 to +0.9 foot range this morning along our coast. With the expected gradual increase today, it continues to appear as though we will see spotty minor flooding with this evening's high tide. It should not be widespread enough to warrant a Coastal Flood Advisory.

As tidal departures rise even further, we may see a more extensive minor flooding event with Sunday evening's high tide. An advisory may become necessary as we get closer to that high tide cycle.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ430- 431.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . CMS/Robertson Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Iovino Aviation . CMS/Iovino/Robertson Marine . Iovino/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi55 min 78°F 65°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 10 mi55 min NNE 8 G 11 78°F 83°F1014.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 10 mi55 min ENE 5.1 G 9.9 78°F 83°F1015.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 13 mi55 min ENE 9.9 G 12 78°F 1015.3 hPa
FSNM2 13 mi55 min ENE 13 G 17 77°F 1015.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi25 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 77°F 82°F1016.1 hPa (-0.0)65°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 17 mi55 min ESE 8 G 12 79°F 83°F1014.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi115 min NE 1.9 1014 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 37 mi25 min 77°F 82°F1 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 39 mi55 min ENE 9.9 G 11 77°F 82°F1014.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi55 min ESE 1.9 G 6 78°F 84°F1015.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 42 mi55 min E 8 G 9.9 78°F 83°F1015.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi79 min NE 11 G 12 1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi30 minNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%1015.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD10 mi31 minNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F68°F71%1015.3 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD18 mi90 minNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F69°F70%1015.9 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD18 mi31 minE 1110.00 miOvercast79°F64°F60%1015.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD22 mi30 minENE 610.00 miOvercast75°F66°F74%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE4NE6NE6E5NE7E6NE3E4E4NE4NE3NE4E5E6NE4NE5NE7NE5N8NE4N4NE5NE6N8
2 days agoSW7SW6SE7E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Sandy Point, Maryland
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Sandy Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:54 AM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:29 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:57 PM EDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:38 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.31.31.31.210.90.70.60.50.50.60.70.80.80.80.70.50.40.30.30.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:50 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:48 AM EDT     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:50 PM EDT     0.31 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:08 PM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.70.910.90.60.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.30.30.20-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.