Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cape St. Claire, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible later this afternoon into this evening which may be capable of producing damaging winds north and west of the I-95 corridor. Another threat for isolated thunderstorms is possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

2. Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1....Isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening may be capable of producing damaging winds north and west of the I-95 corridor. Another threat for isolated thunderstorms is possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

A remnant MCS that was across the Great Lakes earlier has weakened while crossing through Pennsylvania. Still, the diurnal heating from earlier has created numerous showers and a few thunderstorms which have moves across western/central PA earlier this evening. While the rains have started to weaken, we have upped POPs a bit for the rest of the evening and added a chances for a thunderstorms too. The threat for severe weather is low however, just a few downpours and some gusty winds possible.
Any convective activity should wane through the evening hours and conclude overnight.

For Wednesday, there is another chance for isolated severe weather across portions of eastern PA and northwest NJ where a Marginal Risk is now in place for some isolated damaging winds and small hail.
However, it is worth noting that this threat is highly conditional depending on how convection evolves from upstream and with any remaining boundaries. Much of the latest available forecast guidance depicts a MCS tracking across the Great Lakes region tonight before fizzling near the Appalachian region. Similar to today, diurnal heating will likely contribute to some reinvigorating of convection in the afternoon. For now, the threat for severe weather is similar today, but will ultimately depend on how upstream convection evolves. Forecast guidance notoriously struggles with these types of scenarios, so confidence on Wednesday's threat is low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potentially record breaking warmth is possible this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend.

High confidence remains in early season heat with a significant warm up expected through the middle of the week and into the upcoming weekend with the potential for record breaking temperatures.

With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average this week. As of now, forecast highs are in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday, though Thursday may be a touch cooler due to more cloud cover. See Climate Section below regarding potential record breaking temperatures through Thursday.

At this point, temperatures are expected to reach at least 90F for much urban corridor on Wednesday and Thursday. This would be first 90 degree day of the year and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels early next week.

Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. A few weak disturbances will pass by to the north through Thursday, but other than a stray shower or thunderstorm each afternoon north of the I-95 corridor, no significant rainfall is expected. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture, which will likely hinder the fire weather concerns this week. Winds will generally be light as well, as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...Prevailing VFR. A slight chance of showers for most terminals except KMIV/KACY with VCSH in the 00Z TAFs, but confidence in occurrence remains low. Some fog is possible, if any rain occurs, but have left this mention out as well.
Southwest winds around 4-8 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals late in the late afternoon, mainly after 21Z. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...Prevailing VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (~20-50%) in the afternoon and evening hours each day for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals.

Friday night through Sunday...VFR. A few showers possible through the weekend, otherwise no significant weather.

MARINE
No marine headlines are in effect through Wednesday. South-southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt are expected with seas around 2-4 feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A few showers possible.

Sunday...Small Craft Advisories possible due to wind gusts around 25 kt and seas around 3-5 feet. Showers likely.

CLIMATE
Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 14th through April 16th.

Record High Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 88/2023 AC Airport (ACY) 86/1945 AC Marina (55N) 90/1941 Georgetown (GED) 87/1977 Mount Pocono (MPO) 84/2023 Philadelphia (PHL) 91/1941 Reading (RDG) 90/1941 Trenton (TTN) 89/1941 Wilmington (ILG) 87/1941

Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 61/2014 AC Airport (ACY) 63/2023 AC Marina (55N) 60/2023 Georgetown (GED) 65/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2014 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2014 Reading (RDG) 64/2014 Trenton (TTN) 62/2014 Wilmington (ILG) 60/2014

Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896

Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002

Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896

Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.