Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 4:56 AM   Moonset 8:08 PM

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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 402 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers.Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. Showers likely. Fri - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Sat - N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ400 402 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 081940 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 340 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary will move south of the area this evening and stall near southern Delaware and southern Maryland through Thursday, before an area of low pressure moves along the boundary later Thursday. The boundary then remains to our south through Friday, before another low pressure system moves near the area later Friday into Friday night. Yet another weak low pressure system may move near the area Sunday, before high pressure builds south of the Mid Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. More unsettled weather could impact the weather Tuesday into Wednesday as a storm system approaches the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Breezy the rest of the afternoon with southwest to west winds gusting 20-25 mph. Broad upper level pattern is more zonal overhead and with an airmass in place is quite dry through the column, kept afternoon POPs below 15 percent. That said, can't fully rule out a rogue gusty shower before sunset.

As we head into tonight, initial area of low pressure continues moving east off the coast of New England and out to sea. This will push a weak cold front offshore through the evening. Meanwhile by the overnight period the next wave of low pressure will be approaching as it moves eastward through the midwestern states and this will start to push the front back to the north as a warm front.
Clouds will once again be on the increase by the late overnight and it's possible we could see some showers start to enter the region towards dawn, however the trend has been slower with these arriving later. Expect lows ranging from the 50s north to the low 60s south.

Forecast guidance continues to step back from the severe weather potential for Thursday, though the situation remains in a bit of a flux. A few things are working in favor for a diminished severe potential:

1) Guidance continues to trend further south with the track of our system, lending to a cooler, cloudier day

2) Convective-allowing models are suggesting an overnight MCS across the southern Mid Atlantic will lift northward along a warm front and arrive around or shortly after daybreak Thursday, largely robbing our region of instability for much of the day.

Because so much of the aforementioned elements depend on the evolution of severe weather occuring across the Tennessee River Valley today, there remains a higher than usual level of uncertainty within our forecast. At any rate, the warm front and how far north it is able to travel will be the limiting reagent for our weather tomorrow. North of the front will remain cloudy, showery, and overall dreary with temperatures stuck in the mid to upper 60s with an easterly flow. South of the front, warmer temperatures in the 70s with diurnal heating will lend to more instability developing through the day, resulting in a higher severe weather risk. At this point in the forecast, the frontal boundary is expected to stall out just south of the Delmarva Peninsula, keeping much of the severe weather potential in our forecast area suppressed. A few elevated storms cannot be ruled out, especially across the Delmarva and southern NJ, but the severe weather threat, if this forecast holds, is expected to be lower than previously forecast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled weather will continue for the Thursday night through Friday night time period as our area will be north of a frontal boundary located to our south, with a trough extending northward to our west. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along this trough and move along the frontal boundary to our south through Friday night. There will be plenty of moisture and lift across the area, so showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unsettled weather continues still into the weekend with showers possible later Saturday into Sunday. For the first half of Saturday, our area will be in between one area of low pressure located offshore, and a second moving our of the Great Lakes region. As the low moves out of the Great Lakes region and approaches the Mid Atlantic later Saturday into Sunday, the potential for showers will increase across the area.

A brief period of dry weather is expected later Sunday and Sunday night, and continuing into Monday as high pressure briefly builds to the south of the Mid Atlantic region. This dry weather will only be brief as chances will begin to increase Tuesday into Wednesday as a storm system approaches from the southwest.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR with westerly winds 10 to 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...Mainly VFR with winds becoming light and variable.

Thursday...Shower/storms likely along with lowering cigs and visbys down at least MVFR at times. Winds generally east around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday night-Saturday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible through the period with showers possible at times.

Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions with showers, improving to VFR later in the day.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR conditions expected.

MARINE
Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory through Thursday. It will be quiet on the waters tonight but then expect more rounds of showers with some storms as well during the day Thursday as the next low approaches. East winds increase through the day to around 10-15 gusting to 20 knots by late day. Seas should generally be 2-4 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday night-Monday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through the period, although winds may gust around 20 knots at times through the period, and seas may approach 4- 5 feet for a period on Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal ranges increasing this week with the new moon on Tuesday evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still another round of widespread minor coastal flooding is expected for Atlantic coastal zones, the Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with the high tide cycle tonight. Therefore, another Coastal Flood Advisory is in place for these areas as a result. Additional rounds of minor coastal flooding remain possible with the evening/overnight high tides through the end of the week.

Flooding is not expected for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ012>014-020>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Miah Maull Shoal Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:04 AM EDT     9.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:34 PM EDT     7.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miah Maull Shoal Light, Delaware Bay, New Jersey, Tide feet

Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:59 AM EDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:44 AM EDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:09 PM EDT     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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