Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:59PM Sunday August 18, 2019 5:59 PM EDT (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:52PMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 436 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will control the weather pattern through Monday. A trough will approach the waters by midweek. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 181915
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
315 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
A weak surface boundary will remain over the area through the
middle of the week. Southerly flow will bring hot and humid air
into the region during this time. A cold front will sweep
through the area during the second half of the week, with high
pressure following for next weekend.

Near term through Monday
As expected, isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed
this afternoon. One in particular got caught and backbuilt over
baltimore city, dropping two inches of rain, dime size hail,
and gusty winds of at least 30 mph.

With little in the way of synoptic forcing, the existing outflow
boundaries from ongoing convection, and terrain, will be the
primary drivers of convective initiation through the early
evening hours. Some of these storms will likely be as robust as
the one in baltimore -- perhaps even stronger.

Overnight tonight, model guidance shows more fog than this
morning but not as much as Saturday morning. Have indicated that
in the forecast. Otherwise, the ongoing convection should end
with sunset, and guidance has backed off on the idea of
overnight showers... For now.

We will rinse and repeat this for Monday, most likely with
temperatures a degree or two hotter than today. This will put
heat index values very close to heat advisory criteria in the
eastern half or so of the forecast area. Due to ongoing storms,
will pass the advisory decision on to later shifts.

There should not be as much in the way of showers and storms on
Monday, but isolated activity -- perhaps with strong gusty winds
-- is still on the table.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
The only thing likely to hold Tuesday back from the extreme heat
will be increased cloud storm coverage in the afternoon, before
it has a chance to get as hot or hotter than Monday. A heat
advisory could still be required. Things start to change
Tuesday as a stronger, deeper shortwave approaches, not to
mention a cold front from the northwest. CAPE remains plentiful
Tuesday and pw's near 2 inches. Thus, decided it was prudent to
insert a mention for severe weather and flooding into the hwo
for this day, given the higher potential compared to prior days.

The SPC has also placed us in a marginal risk for severe
weather Tuesday.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
A surface trof will be in place Wednesday while temperatures remain
hot in the middle 90s. A downward trend in convection is indicated
by model guidance. Substantial height falls are indicated on
Thursday as mid-upper level trof crosses the eastern great lks to
northern new england with the GFS being much more amplified with
this trof than the ecmwf. Nevertheless, anticipating Thu we'll see
decent convective cvrg. Some drying will begin to take place thu
night as front crosses the area, but expecting showers to linger
into Fri across the southern areas as front will be slow to clear
area. Dry conditions are likely for the weekend at least for
northern areas, although central va and far southern areas could
still see chances of showers prevail as front stalls across southern
va.

Aviation 19z Sunday through Friday
Vfr expected through the valid TAF period except in pop-up
showers and storms... Which today seem to be popping up right
near the terminals. When those storms occur, lowered visibility
and gusty winds are possible.

This will repeat Monday afternoon but with less storm coverage
expected. Better chance again on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Enhanced risk of t-storms Thursday with passage of cold front.

Marine
Models have backed off on the potential for southerly channeling
this evening that would reach small craft advisory gust
criteria. But it will remain close and we will monitor.

Gusty winds possible in storms over the waters this afternoon
and early evening; same story Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise
light winds though with high pressure in control after today.

Sca conditions possible Wed and Thu as gradient tightens. Smws
may be required thu.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Je
near term... Je
short term... Rcm
long term... Lfr
aviation... Je lfr
marine... Je lfr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi60 min 85°F 79°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi60 min 88°F 1014.5 hPa (-1.0)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi60 min SE 8 G 9.9 88°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.4)
FSNM2 9 mi66 min SE 8 G 9.9 1014.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi66 min SSE 2.9 G 7 90°F 83°F1014.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi66 min SW 6 G 8 87°F 84°F1015.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi60 min SSE 9.9 G 11 84°F 83°F1016.1 hPa (-1.1)75°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi150 min SE 4.1 88°F 1015 hPa77°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi60 min S 5.1 G 7 91°F 84°F1014.3 hPa (-1.1)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi66 min S 4.1 G 11 89°F 83°F1014.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi66 min W 1.9 G 8.9 78°F 84°F1015.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi60 min S 13 G 14 83°F 1015.4 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi2.1 hrsS 13 G 1910.00 mi92°F69°F47%1014.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi2.3 hrsS 11 G 1610.00 miFair93°F73°F53%1014.9 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi2.1 hrsENE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F73°F61%1014.4 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi2.1 hrsno data mi84°F70°F63%1015.1 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi2.2 hrsW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F77°F70%1015.6 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi2.3 hrsSSE 810.00 mi91°F71°F52%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmS3S3S3S3CalmCalmS4CalmS3SW4S5E5SE8SE9SE9SE12S11S13
G19
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1 day agoSE6SE7SE6S4E4E3--SE6E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3E5SE6SE5SE7SE8SE8SE10SE7E3
2 days agoSE8E7E11SE15SE14E6E7E6E5E6E5E6NE5E7E6E5SE6SE6SE5SE5SE3SE6SE6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Mountain Point, Magothy River, Maryland
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Mountain Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:51 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:58 AM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:45 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:30 PM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.50.40.50.60.811.21.21.210.90.70.50.40.40.40.60.811.11.11

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:48 AM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:52 AM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:15 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.50.70.80.70.4-0-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.20.20.50.70.70.60.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.