Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:38PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 1:47 AM EST (06:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:23AMMoonset 2:02PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 935 Pm Est Mon Feb 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am est Tuesday through Tuesday evening...
Overnight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of rain in the late morning and afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Rain likely until early morning, then a chance of rain late.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 935 Pm Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. The surface high will slide eastward tonight over the northern atlantic and lose its influence over our weather. Low pressure developing in missouri will progress to the northeast. It is forecast to pass across the great lakes tonight before reaching southern quebec on Tuesday afternoon. The low will likely pull a cold front through our region on Tuesday evening. High pressure from the west is anticipated to follow for the balance of the work week. The high is expected to pass off the southeast coast over the weekend. An area of low pressure may approach from the west or southwest on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon , NJ
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location: 39.11, -74.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 180234 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 934 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. The surface high will slide eastward tonight over the northern Atlantic and lose its influence over our weather. Low pressure developing in Missouri will progress to the northeast. It is forecast to pass across the Great Lakes tonight before reaching southern Quebec on Tuesday afternoon. The low will likely pull a cold front through our region on Tuesday evening. High pressure from the west is anticipated to follow for the balance of the work week. The high is expected to pass off the southeast coast over the weekend. An area of low pressure may approach from the west or southwest on Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Minor changes with the hourly temperature trends as the guidance bias has been mostly too high over the last few hours. I don't think this will continue all night as the increasing cloud cover should limit radiational cooling late tonight.

We are starting to see increasing high cloud cover, mostly associated with the upper level jet progressing over our region. After 06Z, however, the next low pressure system lifting into the Great Lakes region will result in more increasing cloud cover. As this occurs, high pressure will retreat eastward towards the Canadian Maritimes while low pressure advances NE towards Michigan pushing a warm front towards the region.

Most of the night should remain dry. However towards dawn, the leading edge of precip ahead of the system's warm front will approach and this could result in some light showers or drizzle developing by this time over eastern PA into the Delmarva. Farther north towards the southern Poconos precip is expected to start as snow. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 30s except 20s over the southern Poconos. Also, these lows will likely be reached around midnight with temps nudging up overnight due to the increasing cloud cover and developing warm advection pattern.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. For Tuesday, low pressure will track eastward to our north as it moves from Michigan through the lower Great Lakes towards southern Quebec, very similar to what most systems have done this winter. As this occurs, a warm front will move through during the morning followed by a cold front approaching by late day. This will put the region in the warm sector and expect an unsettled day with periods of rain and showers, though at any given location it likely will not be raining continuously all day. Precip may come in two waves with one round in the morning with the warm front and another late day as the cold front approaches. Also, it should tend to be most persistent for areas N/W of the I-95 corridor closer to the track of the low. For our far northern zones near and north of the I-80 corridor over NE PA into NW NJ the precip will likely continue as snow or a rain snow mix into the morning before changing to rain by the afternoon. Any accumulation should be minor though, at most an inch or two over the higher elevations of the southern Poconos and NW NJ. Highs will range from the low 40s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ to the mid 50s near the I-95 corridor to around 60 over southern Delaware.

Rain/showers continue into Tuesday evening before gradually winding down overnight as a cold front moves through. This will occur as the low continues tracking eastward towards the Canadian Maritimes. Total rain amounts with the system look to generally range from a tenth of an inch up to a few tenths of an inch. By Wednesday morning, lows should be back down in the 20s over the southern Poconos with 30s near the I-95 corridor, and low 40s over our southern zones in Delmarva.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The medium-range period will be dominated by a very strong and broad surface high building into the central and eastern U.S. from mid-to- late week. This will keep the region mostly dry, with temperatures primarily near to below seasonal averages. Operational and ensemble models are in good agreement through this weekend, with the only notable differences associated with a trough passage late this week. This leads to above-average forecast confidence through this weekend.

On Wednesday, the midlevel vort max associated with the Tuesday/Tuesday night system will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Precipitation should be shunted offshore by this point, with a weak secondary front expected to move into the region during the afternoon/evening. Models are hinting at some lake-effect snow in New York Wednesday night upstream of the front but are rather dry farther south. Trajectories are not overly favorable for snow showers in the Poconos, but cannot rule this out entirely. For now, though, think chances are too low for mention in the forecast. Main sensible weather impact will be a noticeable cooling trend after a warm Wednesday, with lows Wednesday night probably 10-20 degrees colder than the previous night. The cold will persist on Thursday, with a similar 10-20 degree drop from the previous day.

A nearly zonally-oriented midlevel vort max will extend from the Saint Lawrence Valley to the central Rockies on Thursday morning. A kicker vort max will dig southward in east-central Canada during the day, acting to strengthen the southwestern portion of the trough in the central/southern Plains by Thursday night. Widespread precipitation will develop in the Southeast during this period, with cyclogenesis likely occurring off the Southeast coast between 00z and 12z Friday. The aforementioned surface high is depicted to shunt the general storm track well south of the region. However, both the CMC and ECMWF are hinting at the far northern portions of the precipitation shield to impinge upon the far southern CWA. As such, felt that slight-chance PoPs are warranted Thursday night, with temperatures cold enough for a rain-snow mix. However, this potential is conditional on the track of the low, with the most likely outcome (for now) being no precipitation.

Any effects from the southern-stream system will be shunted east of the area by Friday. Another cold day is expected, with highs generally around 10 degrees below seasonal averages. The surface high will build into the eastern U.S. this weekend, with return flow gradually becoming established by Sunday. A warming trend is forecast for this period, with dry weather continuing.

The next system will likely impact the area early next week, but deterministic model solutions vary widely. Will broad-brush slight- to-chance PoPs for early next week and also continue the warming trend, given transient midlevel ridging in advance of the system.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR with CIGs around 20-25 kft lowering below 10 kft after 09z. Light and variable winds becoming predominantly easterly after 06z. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . Periods of sub-VFR are probable as CIGs continue to lower and showers increase in coverage. May see a brief period of snow showers at RDG/ABE between 12z and 14z, but confidence is too low for TAF mention. Elsewhere, showers (liquid only) may remain fairly sparse for much of the day. With this in mind, current thinking is that conditions will be variable, ranging from VFR to MVFR or even IFR at times, with low confidence on timing these changes. Winds veering from east to southeast to south during the day, generally 5 to 10 kt (moderate confidence).

Tuesday night . Gradual improvement in CIGs/VSBYs expected, as winds become southwest and veer to west or northwest during the evening/overnight hours and precipitation slowly tapers off. Speeds will increase to 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt or so after midnight. Low confidence.

Outlook. Wednesday . A few linger showers early in the morning with any lingering MVFR CIGs quickly improving to VFR. Northwest winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts from 15 to 20 knots. High confidence.

Thursday through Saturday . VFR with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Tonight . Winds/seas start to increase with marginal SCA conditions expected by late tonight for New Jersey coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Little Egg Inlet as winds gust 20-25 knots.

Tuesday . Marginal SCA conditions expected for the coastal waters off New Jersey as winds gust up to 25 knots with seas 4-6 feet.

Tuesday night . Winds/seas likely diminishing for a time in the evening before increasing late at night in the wake of a cold front as winds shift to NW with gusts up to 25 knots once again likely.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Thursday . Northwest winds for Wednesday and Thursday. Speeds will generally be around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Some gusts around 25 knots are possible early Wednesday. Seas generally around 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday night through Friday . Northwest winds around 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Seas around 1 to 3 feet.

Saturday . Northwest winds will become more westerly through the day. Wind speeds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Seas around 2 to 3 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ452- 453. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ450- 451.

Synopsis . Wilson Near Term . Adams/Washington Short Term . Adams Long Term . Washington/FDR Aviation . Washington/Truman Marine . Adams/McKinley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 15 mi47 min 39°F 42°F1026.2 hPa (-0.3)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 22 mi47 min 1026.8 hPa (-0.6)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 24 mi47 min 44°F 43°F1027.6 hPa (+0.0)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 30 mi47 min 43°F 44°F1026.5 hPa (-0.4)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi77 min NNE 1 33°F 1028 hPa33°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi47 min 39°F 44°F1026.8 hPa (-0.6)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 45 mi57 min NE 9.7 G 12 46°F 47°F3 ft1023 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ11 mi51 minE 410.00 miFair37°F36°F96%1027 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN4N4N3N8NE10NE11E12E9NE8E8E5E5E6E4CalmE4NE4E3NE4N4E4
1 day agoSW7SW8S7SW8SW8S6SW9SW8SW8SW8W8W6W3S6SE5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN5N3N5N5NE5N4N5NE3Calm3W6W9SE10S4SE9S4SE6S6S3S6S5SW7S8SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Ingram Thorofare, Townsends Inlet, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Sluice Creek, Route 47 bridge, Dennis Creek, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Sluice Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:21 AM EST     5.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:30 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:50 PM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.81.72.944.85.25.24.53.42.110.40.40.81.62.53.33.83.93.62.81.70.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.