Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Edesville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:45PM Saturday December 14, 2019 2:16 AM EST (07:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:15PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 1238 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Overnight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves flat...building to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely or a chance of snow.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
ANZ500 1238 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move northward into the region tonight before moving off to the northeast Saturday. High pressure will briefly build overhead for Sunday before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Sunday morning, and again on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Edesville, MD
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location: 39.11, -76.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 140248 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 948 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will strengthen while moving across the Mid-Atlantic region late tonight and Saturday. The low will then move up across New England and into eastern Canada through Sunday. High pressure will build over the area later Sunday before moving away Monday. Another low and its associated fronts will affect the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday. High pressure will then follow for the second half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. The coastal front continues to shift inland this evening but very slowly. The continuation of strong warm air advection with sharp veering of the winds with height in the low-levels (captured by the 00z Wallops Island, VA raob) will gradually erode the rather shallow cold air still stuck across parts of eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey (impressive sharp very low-level inversion on the 00z Sterling, VA raob). Surface temperatures are responding with a gradual rise in those areas. Otherwise, temperatures are in the 50s east of the coastal front. The GFS LAMP guidance is handling the temperature and dew point trends well thus far, therefore weighted the hourly grids more heavily with it through the overnight. The rainfall amounts tonight were increased some across especially southern Delaware, eastern New Jersey to northern New Jersey given amounts so far and additional moderate to at times heavy rain moving northward. The rainfall amounts should drop off westward and especially across the far western part of the forecast area (i.e. Berks County, Lehigh Valley into the Poconos) as the stronger moisture surge looks to be more eastward.

Higher dew points and warmer air surging up and over the lingering shallow cold layer has resulted in fog, however as the warmer air wins out the visibilities are improving. Therefore, will just maintain some fog mention especially near and west of I-95 for awhile tonight. Some locally dense fog may still occur. Overall, a milder but wet night across the area overnight.

Otherwise, low pressure continues to develop to our south and it will intensify as it moves towards the northeast and into our region overnight. Strong PVA and height falls ahead of the surface low will continue to promote surface cyclogenesis ahead of the system as a strongly negatively tilted mid-level trough lifts out of the lower Mississippi River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. A strong 150- knot 300 mb jet streak developing directly over the Delaware Valley will also provide forcing for ascent, and there is plenty of moisture available with strong southerly flow off the Atlantic ahead of this system.

PWATs from 1-1.5 inches advect into the region, thus, a widespread moderate to heavy rain event is in store tonight. At this point, the heaviest rainfall is likely to fall just ahead of the surface low through 8 AM Saturday. The progressive nature of this storm will be the one saving grace, as the current track of the surface low takes it right across much of the Garden State. As the low moves overhead, rainfall rates will likely taper off a tad as we head into the later morning hours. Some Hi-res models are suggesting a line of heavier rain or showers will develop into the early afternoon. There is some instability associated with this, thus we cannot rule out a rumble of thunder. After this, we will begin to dry out, save for a few wrap around showers into the evening and early overnight hours. This could mix with some wet snow for a brief time in the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ, but no significant impacts are expected at this time.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Quieter conditions Sunday and Sunday night as the low pulls off to the northeast and high pressure continues to build into the region. As low pressure lifts to our northeast, the pressure gradient behind it will tighten quite significantly. Winds above the surface increase as well and could mix down to the surface. This could potentially lead to wind gusts of at least 25-35 mph, with occasional higher gusts of near 40 mph late Saturday afternoon, Saturday night into early Sunday. High temperatures will be cooler in the low to mid 40s. Lows in the upper 30s Saturday night as the low pulls out of the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Monday thru Tuesday night .

An area of low pressure will form across the lower Mississippi Valley Monday and then move NE into the Middle Atlantic area by Tuesday. The system is not strong as it nears, but much like the present system, it will deepen as it moves through. A shield of precipitation will develop and run ahead of the system, arriving across our area Monday. The precipitation will continue into Tuesday before tapering off. Right now, much of the precip will be rain, but the onset may contain some mixed or frozen precip, especially if it begins early enough Monday. Right now the rain/snow/rain-snow mix/ wording will be used, but as we get closer to the event, some sleet or perhaps some freezing rain may be added to the fcst.

Highs Monday will be a little below normal, but by Tuesday, readings should climb above normal with low/mid 50s for the Delaware Valley (S/E) and mid/upper 40s for the Lehigh valley, Berks County and nrn NJ. A cold front will follow for Tue night, ending the milder temperatures.

Wednesday thru Friday .

Colder and drier air arrive across the area Wednesday and lasts into the end of the week. As high pressure noses in, fair weather is expected, so we will keep the fcst dry for Wed thru Fri attm.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight . IFR ceilings will improve to MVFR for a time especially from PHL south and eastward, otherwise ceilings should become widespread LIFR overnight along with periods of rain some heavy at times. Northeast winds 4-8 knots, becoming mostly light and variable. Strong southerly winds around 2000 feet late tonight and early Saturday morning along the coast will result in a period of low-level wind shear mainly at ACY. High confidence on IFR occuring; lower confidence on how low conditions will get and the extent/duration of improving ceilings to MVFR.

Saturday . IFR conditions, especially ceilings, through much of the day (LIFR ceilings should be around to start the day). Rain at times will result in lowered visibility, however this should become more showery by afternoon. Light and variable winds will increase out of the east to southeast 5-10 knots, then become south to southwest 10- 15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots toward mid to late afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Saturday night . An improvement to MVFR is possible during the evening hours and may improve to VFR overnight. Winds become westerly around 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-30 knots possible at times. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . MVFR ceilings may develop after sunrise for a few hours, before lifting to VFR by late morning into the afternoon. West winds 15-20 knots, with gusts 20-30 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night . VFR conditions. West winds early, become light and variable overnight. Moderate confidence

Monday thru Tuesday night . MVFR or IFR expected with low CIGS. Rain/snow and fog expected. Low confidence.

Wednesday . VFR returning to the area. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory tonight and Saturday as seas are above 5 feet on the ocean waters. Winds will remain 10 to 15 knots out of the east with gusts around 20 knots.

Winds will turn more to the south and then southwest on Saturday increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 knots starting late afternoon/early evening. Seas will remain elevated through Saturday.

OUTLOOK . Saturday night . Gale Watch in effect for all waters, including Delaware Bay as 35-40 knot wind gusts could develop behind a departing low pressure system.

Sunday . Gale Watch continues for the Atlantic coastal waters as wind gusts could continue to reach 35 knots through midday before diminishing to advisory levels during the afternoon.

Sunday night . Winds lower below advisory levels overnight and seas subside below 5 feet as well.

Monday thru Tuesday night . SCA expected. Rain and fog expected.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.50-1.00 inches for portions of eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and northern Delmarva. This rainfall amounts will not cause more than some ponding on roadways and nuisance type flooding. However, farther east, rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 1.00-1.50 inches, with some spots potential reaching 2 inches, especially across northeastern New Jersey, portions of coastal New Jersey, and southern Delaware. Again, ponding on roadways and poor drainage type flooding will be likely in these areas. However, for portions of northern and central New Jersey, as well as Bucks county have the potential for more widespread flooding impacts, including some river and creek/stream flooding. Therefore a Flood Watch has been issued for Bucks County in Pennsylvania, as well as portions of northeast and central New Jersey. The majority of the rainfall will occur tonight and the faster responding creeks and roadway flooding would occur tonight into early Saturday morning. However, some larger rivers, like the Passaic and Millstone, would not flood until later Saturday into Saturday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Confidence has increased that we will see minor tidal flooding on the Atlantic oceanfront, south shores of the Raritan Bay and adjacent back bays.

Astronomical tides remain high thanks to the full moon which just occurred on Thursday. We will have persistent onshore flow through much of the day Saturday. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for the Atlantic oceanfront and the south shores of the Raritan Bay. For the Delaware Bay and tidal portions of the Delaware River, spotty minor flooding is likely, but there is less confidence there will be widespread minor flooding, so have held off on any advisory in these areas for now.

We will see an abrupt shift to offshore flow by Saturday night. Therefore, not expecting the coastal flooding to continue into subsequent high tide cycles.

With only a brief period of southerly flow, tidal flooding is not expected on the northeastern shores of the Chesapeake Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PAZ105-106. NJ . Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NJZ008>010-015. Flood Watch until 6 AM EST Saturday for NJZ012>014-019-020-026- 027. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for NJZ012>014-020-022>027. DE . Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for DEZ003-004. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ430- 431.

Synopsis . Gorse/O'Hara Near Term . Davis/Gorse Short Term . Davis Long Term . O'Hara Aviation . Davis/Gorse/O'Hara/Robertson Marine . Davis/O'Hara/Robertson Hydrology . Robertson/Kruzdlo Tides/Coastal Flooding . Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 9 mi47 min N 4.1 G 6 45°F 42°F1005.4 hPa
CPVM2 16 mi47 min 49°F
44063 - Annapolis 20 mi23 min NNW 5.8 G 5.8 48°F 44°F1004.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi47 min 47°F 1004.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 22 mi47 min NW 8.9 G 8.9 46°F 1005.2 hPa
FSNM2 22 mi59 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 47°F 1004.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi17 min NNW 9.9 G 9.9 49°F 44°F1005 hPa (-5.4)49°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 26 mi47 min N 6 G 8.9 47°F 46°F1004.9 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 33 mi47 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 42°F1005.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 37 mi47 min WNW 6 G 7 47°F 44°F1004 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi107 min NNW 1.9 45°F 1006 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 41 mi23 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 46°F 1005.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi47 min NE 12 G 12 51°F 45°F1004.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi47 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 45°F1004.7 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD14 mi22 minN 70.50 miLight Rain Fog48°F0°F%1004.4 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD21 mi4.5 hrsNE 115.00 miLight Rain54°F53°F100%1012.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi23 minNW 72.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F46°F96%1004.5 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD22 mi42 minNW 34.00 miLight Rain50°F50°F100%1005.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5N3NE4NE3E6NW6N5N6N8N6N6N3CalmCalmN3N4N4N4NE3N4N6N6N8
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N6N6N8NE4NE3CalmSW5CalmS4S3--CalmCalmE3E4E5--CalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Cliffs Wharf, Maryland
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Cliffs Wharf
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:53 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM EST     0.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:26 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:20 PM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.100.20.40.70.90.90.80.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.10.30.81.41.8221.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM EST     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:42 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:29 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:17 PM EST     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:45 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:37 PM EST     1.13 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.1-1-0.6-0.30.10.40.40.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.30.10.50.91.11.10.90.50.1-0.4

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.