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FXUS61 KILN 100616 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 116 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will sweep across the area tonight. Cold northwest flow will follow until high pressure builds in on Monday. Dry weather will ensue through the week with moderating temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
The cold front has pushed into eastern portions of our area and should be out of our area by midnight. Convective elements have congealed into more of a widespread area of rain along and ahead of the front. This pcpn will taper off from the west through late evening and into the early morning hours. A colder airmass will continue to move in behind the front with lows tonight ranging from the low 30s west to the upper 30s east.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
West northwest flow will keep skies mainly cloudy through the period. A weak secondary short wave could be sufficient to product some light precipitation in the more concentrated low-level moisture stream coming off of Lake Michigan. But would expect anything to be of little consequence.

There will be little if any recovery in temperatures during the day from morning lows. Lows Sunday night will be in the 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Quiet weather is expected across the Ohio Valley Monday through Friday thanks to a couple areas of high pressure moving across the region. The first area of high pressure builds in from the southwest for the first half of the work week. Westerly flow keeps temperatures in the upper 30s on Monday before southwesterly flow brings in warmer air for Tuesday.

A weak cold front pushes through the area Tuesday night leading to some increased clouds cover ahead of the second area of high pressure. This second surface high builds in from the north on Wednesday before slowly drifting east through Friday. Weak southerly flow around the high moderates temperatures as the week progresses while the high drifts east.

The next chance for precipitation arrives this weekend when a surface low may pass to the east. Most ensemble members have a coastal low rather than a low over the Appalachians which suggests moisture and forcing could remain limited over the Ohio Valley. With higher probabilities in the ensembles and climatology for a coastal low, precipitation chances remain low over the Ohio Valley at this time.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Surface cold front has shifted east of the TAF sites into eastern Ohio. Showers have tapered off leaving some post frontal clouds. Although some brief MVFR conditions will be possible - expect VFR conditions thru sunrise Sunday. Wrap around moisture will spread back into the region Sunday. This will result in MVFR cigs through the remainder of the day and into Sunday evening.

A few snow showers will also be possible late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, primarily across central Ohio.

Northwest winds will prevail around 10 kts thru the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible into Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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Wilmington, OH,