Marine Weather and Tides
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9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 6:06AM||Sunset 8:04PM||Saturday August 8, 2020 3:27 AM CDT (08:27 UTC)||Moonrise 10:53PM||Moonset 10:44AM||Illumination 81%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bingham, ILHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLSX 080555 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1255 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020
SHORT TERM. (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020
The Mid-Mississippi Valley is stuck between a high and a humid place, with an upper-level ridge to the west and surface high pressure on the backside of a slowly-advancing trough to the east. The CWA returns to near-normal temperatures tonight as marginally stronger low-level southerly flow develops amidst a tightening surface pressure gradient. Most of the overnight hours will remain dry, but there is good consensus of an elongated MCS forming in central MO after midnight. While the main axis of elevated instability should stay west of the area, there seems to be ample MUCAPE through eastern MO available to the nose of a pronounced low- level jet. CAMs center convective onset in central MO around 10Z, and continuing to dive southeast through the morning. The eastern portion of the CWA should be spared by this initial bout of thunderstorms, allowing for further destabilization through the late morning and early afternoon.
On the northern periphery of the decaying MCS, confidence is building that a remnant MCV will form. Deterministic solutions, as well as the SREF, call for SBCAPE values ranging from 1500-2000J/kg in eastern MO and southwestern IL. The remnant energy from the MCV could provide forcing for a second round of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Heavy rainfall is also a concern going into Saturday evening and night in northeastern MO and western IL. Anomalously high PW values and stronger moisture convergence could be present in areas of enhanced instability and remnant forcing, resulting in heavier downpours where thunderstorms develop. The redevelopment of the nocturnal LLJ late Saturday night will also act to maintain convective activity in this area.
LONG TERM. (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020
Uncertainty exists in the as to how long precipitation will last into Sunday, which will impact temperatures. If the CAMs are correct, the remnant MCV will spawn showers and thunderstorms even after the nocturnal LLJ weakens. The MCV should exit the area by early afternoon. While widespread forcing will be in shorter supply than Saturday after the MCV exits, there will still be an abundance of instability as temperatures and dew points continue to rise. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are certainly possible across the area, but chances remain extremely limited. Stronger southerly flow means that Sunday's temperatures should top off in the lower 90s across eastern MO/southwestern IL and mid 90s in central MO. If precipitation stimulated by the MCV persists through the morning, temperatures will not have enough time to recover to the currently- forecasted highs.
Temperatures and humidity will continue to rise Monday. The upper- level ridge will expand across the central U.S. and return flow from surface high pressure will feed hotter, more humid air into the CWA. GEFS, NAEFS, and EPS solutions point to 850mb temperatures of 20-24C as a low-level thermal ridge expands east. These values point to high temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s for a majority of the area, with extreme northern counties in the CWA topping out in the upper 80s. Monday also looks to be the hottest day of the period, with peak heat index values 100-105F. The only factor that could limit these warmer temperatures is precipitation. It does not seem that sufficient forcing exists for any widespread precipitation to bring relief from the elevated temperatures Monday, but scattered thunderstorms are possible once again given higher instability.
Ensembles are pointing to growing consensus of a more amplified shortwave trough embedded in the larger ridge passing through the Mid-Mississippi Valley late Monday night. While temperatures should cool slightly with its passage, the chance for showers and thunderstorms comes along with it. Tuesday's high temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than Monday, with a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms. The rest of the week features a train of shortwave troughs embedded along the periphery of the upper-level ridge, with thunderstorm chances accompanying them each day. Temperature uncertainty exists through the remainder of the period as a result of these precipitation chances, but persistently- elevated low-level temperatures should keep the area in the mid-to-upper 80s each day after Tuesday.
AVIATION. (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020
A rather complicated forecast is in store for all terminals this period. To start, decaying convection associated with an upper-level disturbance is moving eastward across northern MO. Despite the downward trend in this activity, KCOU and KUIN may experience some showers early on in the period. This system will continue to decay as it moves eastward, so my confidence in it impacting the St. Louis Metro terminals, including KSTL, is low enough to not warrant mention in the TAFs. Another round of convection is anticipated in the wake of this first round across central MO. This activity will move to the southeast, possibly impacting KCOU around 12z.
The focus then turns to the afternoon and early evening. Convection during this time will largely depend on how exactly convection plays out earlier in the period. Model guidance has widely varying solutions on timing and placement of afternoon activity. Despite this spread, I have confidence that the St. Louis metro terminals may see isolated convection around 00z, though the timing of this activity could very well change by a few hours. Any convection that directly impacts terminals will have the potential to produce MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.
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|Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL||27 mi||33 min||SE 5||10.00 mi||Fair||63°F||60°F||92%||1021 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for K3LF
Wind History from 3LF (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||E||E||E||SE||E||Calm||SE||SE||E||E||E||E||E||Calm||Calm||E||Calm||E||E|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||Calm||NE||Calm||E||E||E||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||E||Calm|
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (4,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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