Bingham, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bingham, IL

April 14, 2024 2:19 AM CDT (07:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM
Moonrise 10:34 AM   Moonset 1:41 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bingham, IL
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 140344 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1044 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures (widespread 80s) will continue into early next week. Highs on Sunday and Monday may threaten daily records.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible areawide Tuesday, mainly during the late afternoon/early evening hours. However, there remains uncertainty in details such as potential hazards, more favored areas for severe weather, and exact timing.

- Ahead of the possible severe weather, strong and gusty southerly winds are forecast. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph are forecast with gusts of 35-45 mph.



SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Unseasonably mild conditions are forecast overnight tonight with increasing southerly winds. Lows are only expected to drop back into the upper 50s to low 60s. In some locations this will be about 20 degrees warmer than this morning!

A weak cold front will slowly approach from the northwest on Sunday, reaching into parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois by early afternoon. Surface winds ahead of this feature will veer more to the west/southwest. These winds are very favorable for enhancing the warmup in parts of central, east central, and southeast Missouri as these winds downslope off of the Ozark Plateau. In addition, there should be plentiful sunshine and the timing of the 850-hPa thermal ridge is favorable. Speaking of the 850-hPa thermal ridge, values of +14 to +18C would be above the 95th percentile of climatology. This is where widespread mid to upper 80s are forecast, and wouldn't be shocked to see a location or two hit 90 degrees especially in/around metropolitan St. Louis. No chances of showers or thunderstorms are anticipated with this weak front due to rising mid/upper level heights (subsidence aloft), weak surface convergence, and a strong cap in place.

Most areas likely will be slightly cooler for overnight lows Sunday night due to much lighter winds and a clear sky. This cooling will be most pronounced north of the frontal boundary in parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois as well as in valleys due to the favorable conditions for radiational cooling.

Gosselin

LONG TERM
(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

(Monday - Monday Night)

The stalled front on Monday is expected to lift back gradually north as a warm front. Some guidance is suggesting some convective initiation along this feature, but uncertainty is high. While capping is much weaker Monday afternoon compared to Sunday afternoon, the mid/upper level ridge axis approaches the Mississippi Valley. It is not too common to see convective initiation directly beneath a mid/upper level ridge which is building into the region.
If any thunderstorms do develop, model guidance does have moderate instability (SBCAPE values > 1500 J/kg). Deep-layer shear is (not surprisingly) pretty weak though given the synoptic setup, but 25 knots or so may be enough for some loosely organized multicellular clusters. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds would be the threats in this scenario though the most likely scenario is for little/no storms to even form.

Precipitation chances are less clear on Monday night. Most deterministic guidance stalls out the front near the northern CWA border with broad low-level moisture convergence overhead. There area also hints of a weak midlevel shortwave trough moving out of the south-central Plains, but some pieces of guidance do not have this feature at all. Given the uncertainty, focused higher PoPs (40- 60+%) near the frontal zone and where mid/upper level ascent is most likely to be highest (areas further west...i.e, northeast Missouri).

High temperatures likely will be slightly cooler across the area due to a combination of an increase in cloud cover and surface winds having more of an easterly component. However, the warm start to the day (50s to low 60s) still will lead to very warm conditions areawide by afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 80s or 15+ degrees above normal for the date.

(Tuesday - Tuesday Night)

Attention for Tuesday/Tuesday night remains on the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, most likely during the late afternoon/early evening hours. However, plenty of uncertainty remains with specifics, in large part due to the possibility of antecedent convection at least limiting instability somewhat later in the period. While the signal for morning convection fades pretty quickly, there is a stronger signal for storms to develop in/near the Arklatex area Tuesday morning. This is in an area of strong low-level moisture convergence and strongly diffluent flow aloft south/southeast of the closed low. This activity should spread northeast, likely into parts of east central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois by early-mid afternoon.
Some of these storms may be strong to severe given the strong deep-layer shear (50- 60 knots), but thicker cloud cover downstream of this convection and a temperature inversion aloft help to limit instability. Probabilities for >500 J/kg of CAPE at 1800/2100 UTC in these areas are generally below 10 percent from the GEFS.

The better threat for severe weather I think will be behind this activity, beginning further northwest in parts of central and northeast Missouri. The focus for initiation likely will be a pseudo dryline/surface trough axis. This feature will move east/southeast, but slow overnight in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The convective mode at least initially likely will be supercells given the very strong deep-layer shear, with the vector oriented about 45 degrees off of the initiating boundary. Hodographs are mainly straight, also suggesting the potential for splitting supercells. There is uncertainty as to how quickly this mode may turn into more line/bowing segments. There remains a strong orthogonal component to the deep-layer shear into the early evening hours, but often when the synoptic forcing is this strong (particularly in northern sections of the area), the transition to a more linear mode is pretty quick.

The amount of instability remains a question mark along/just ahead of the dryline/surface trough axis, but there is likely to be at least enough to produce some instances of severe weather. Probabilities for at least 500 J/kg of SBCAPE on the GEFS/EPS are greater than 60%. Given the strong mid/upper level forcing for ascent and 60-70+ knots of deep-layer shear, it will not take much in the way of instability. All hazards are on the table for late Tuesday/Tuesday night, with large hail more favored earlier in the event (with supercells) and damaging winds later in line/bowing segments.
Tornadoes will also be possible, with a sharp increase in winds within the lowest 1 km and low LCL values.

Outside of thunderstorms, we are also expecting very strong southerly sustained winds/gusts due to the strong pressure gradient in place across the region. Sustained wind speeds of 20-30 mph appear likely with gusts of 35-45 mph. Soundings show 40-45 knot winds at the top of the mixed layer, with unidirectional winds which suggests momentum transport to the surface. Southerly winds aren't climatologically a favored direction for wind advisories, but the signal is there and the data supports it. The EPS Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) has 0.7-0.8+ values Tuesday, which suggests a high confidence in anomalous wind gusts. The shift of tails (SOT) is near zero however, which indicates that the event likely will not be too extreme.

(Wednesday - Next Saturday)

Dry and cooler weather is likely on Wednesday after the passage of the trailing cold front.

Forecast uncertainty increases heading into late week. Models agree that anomalous mid/upper level troughing will dig toward the US- Canadian border, but differ on the strength and location. The general theme should be for a gradual step down in temperatures heading into next weekend, but exactly how cold is a question mark.
The EPS is stronger and further south with this feature, and therefore, colder. Temperature anomalies at 850 hPa on the EPS are in the -8 to -10C range while the GEFS is closer to -5 to -8C. We may have frost/freeze concerns though, especially if the colder EPS verifies. Even last night's CIPS analog guidance from Saint Louis University (which is based on the GEFS) showed a chance (>40%) for a freeze in northern sections of the forecast area next weekend.

Precipitation wise, the best chance for rain appears to be Thursday/Thursday night as strong low/mid level frontogenesis moves southeastward across the CWA After that, drier and drier air should advect into the region so precipitation chances look minimal thereafter.

Gosselin

AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Per latest forecast soundings, surface winds will not be as gusty as previously thought. Therefore, with increasing low level winds just off the surface, expect some LLWS through the overnight hours, so added mention to all TAF sites through 12z-13z Sunday.
Otherwise, VFR flight conditions with south winds veering to the southwest by mid morning as the next system approaches region. By early Sunday evening, winds will become light and variable as the frontal boundary stalls out overhead.

Byrd

CLIMATE
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS

|=== 4/14 ==|=== 4/15 ==| St. Louis | 92 (2006) | 89 (2002) | Columbia | 89 (2006) | 90 (1896) | Quincy | 86 (2006) | 88 (2002) |



LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.




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