Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bingham, IL

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

A weak warm front near the Missouri-Iowa border is expected to shift off to the north tonight, with weak surface ridging in its wake. Some midlevel clouds should continue to move across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois through Wednesday, with more clearing the further south you travel. Lows are forecast to be in the mid 50s in southeast Missouri and south-central Illinois, with some spots of low 50s possible in river valleys.
Further north/northwest, more clouds should keep temperatures from dropping below the 60 degree mark.

Highs on Wednesday should be a tick or two higher than this afternoon, with most locations topping out in the low to mid 80s.
Those readings would be about 15 degrees above normal for the middle of October.

Gosselin

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

(Wednesday Night - Friday)

The persistent warm, dry pattern should continue through the end of the work week given anomalous mid/upper level ridging over the region. Temperatures are expected to remain about 10-15 degrees above normal day and night with highs mostly in the low 80s and lows ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

(Friday Night - Saturday Night)

There remains a very good signal for a widespread beneficial rainfall impacting the area late Friday night into Saturday as a cold front slowly moves through the bi-state area. While there is still some spread with respect to the timing of the synoptic cold front and the track/timing of a secondary midlevel shortwave trough, there is good agreement in the late Friday night into Saturday morning time frame. Deterministic guidance all shows increasing low- level moisture advection concurrently with increasing ascent downstream of a midlevel disturbance and upper-level divergence via jet dynamics. There are even some signs of a coupled jet structure around midday Saturday.

Spread increases Saturday afternoon as a secondary midlevel shortwave trough should eject out of the south-central Plains. This feature should help continue showers and isolated thunderstorms along/ahead of the cold front, but as alluded to above, there is still quite a bit of spread with both the track/timing of this feature. The GFS/GEFS is further south, which decreases the midlevel forcing for ascent in our region Saturday afternoon/evening. The ECMWF/EPS meanwhile is a bit slower, but with a track further north through southeast Missouri/southwest Illinois. This would tend to keep the high coverage of showers/thunderstorms going along/ahead of the slow moving cold front through Saturday evening (and bring us heavier rainfall totals). Probabilities for >0.50" and >1" on the EPS are about 10-20% higher. Regardless though, it does appear increasingly likely that this should be the most significant widespread rainfall across most of the region since mid/late September. LREF probabilities for at least 0.50" of rain through Saturday night range from 40-60% and chances for >1" being in the 10- 30% range. The other item of good news is that the southeast half of the CWA (east central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois) are most likely to see the higher totals at this time.
This is where it has been really dry the past 2+ months and where there is quite a bit of D2/severe drought conditions.

One potential negative impact Saturday afternoon/evening is the chances of a few strong to severe thunderstorms along the cold front. There remains many negating factors, the biggest of which was detailed above. There is a strong signal for rainfall Saturday morning out ahead of the cold front. Six-hour probabilities on the LREF between 12-18Z are in the 70-90% range. This antecedent rain and associated cloud cover really cast doubt on how much instability will be for the afternoon. Probabilities for at least 500 J/kg of SBCAPE are only in the 10-30% range across southeast Missouri/southwest Illinois Saturday evening and drop to ~10% or less for >1000 J/kg. This means that any severe threat looks very conditional at this time range, with the most likely scenario being a widespread beneficial rainfall with embedded thunderstorms. We will continue to keep an eye on this time period as there should be plenty of shear available. Mean 0-6 km shear values approach 50 knots late Saturday from the LREF. Those values are high, though nothing extraordinary either for the middle of October. As alluded to yesterday, the orientation of the deep-layer shear vectors are also likely to be fairly parallel to the boundary itself. This would tend to favor more clusters of thunderstorms or line segments instead of discrete convection (supercells).

(Sunday - Next Tuesday)

There is high confidence in a (brief) cooldown behind the cold front to end the weekend. Temperatures are expected to get back closer to normal for the time of year however. Ensemble guidance shows spread in both the amplitude and timing of mid/upper level ridging moving eastward out of the Rocky Mountains early next week. A faster (slower) eastward progression of this ridge would lead to a quicker (slower) warmup. Rain chances may also return by next Tuesday in the quicker scenario as a midlevel shortwave may move out of the Plains.
Before Tuesday, there appears to be at least a 48 hour period of dry weather on tap.

Gosselin

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Light winds and dry weather are expected through the period. More clouds are expected across northern and western sections of the area, with bases ~10 kft AGL. River valley fog is expected tonight, though mainly across southeast Missouri where a more clear sky is expected. There may be a brief period of fog at KSUS, so maintained a TEMPO group for MVFR visibilities.

Gosselin

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.