Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bingham, IL

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

While our northern fringes saw some modest heat relief yesterday thanks to a persistent outflow boundary, dangerous heat continued across much of the rest of the area, and this is expected to persist today and again tomorrow. Much like yesterday, the main source of uncertainty in the temperature/humidity forecast continues to be in those same northern fringes, where once again the potential for another outflow boundary looms. Latest high-resolution model data does not seem to be factoring in the cooling effect of such a boundary today, as even the four counties currently excluded from heat headlines (Knox, Lewis, Adams, Brown) are forecast to reach a heat index of near 105 today, driven largely by very high surface dewpoints just shy of 80 degrees. Over the past several days, we have seen this area repeatedly cooled by cloud cover and convective outflows, with really only one day with a verified heat index of 105 degrees or more (and mostly below 100). Meanwhile, the potential for lingering cloud cover and outflows from storms to the north persist today as well, with even a modest potential (20%) for a few stray showers further south in our area this morning and afternoon. Given this week's history and the lack of persistent heat in these areas, and the fact that even a bullish forecast only barely reaches the 105 degree threshold for a single-day Heat Advisory, we have opted not to add these counties to the headline for now. Still, if cloud cover and/or outflow is not as persistent or southerly as it could be, any little bit of sun will bring the heat index close to that threshold given the very high moisture in place.

As for precipitation, nocturnal thunderstorms continue to percolate just north of our area this morning, with a bit of an outflow-driven southerly surge noted in central Illinois. This has all remained to our north so far, but it would not be a shock to see a few showers dip into our portion of Illinois this morning, with a few more possible in northeast Missouri later this afternoon as well. We don't expect much more than a glancing blow from this activity though, and our probabilities remain low overall (20-30%). Later in the evening and overnight, though, a passing shortwave to our north is likely to drive another MCS(s) across southern Iowa, and there is some support for a more southerly track that would clip our northern tier of counties as well. Wherever this MCS goes, damaging wind and torrential rain rates would be the most significant hazards, the latter being driven by exceptionally high atmospheric moisture (2.2+ inch precipitable water). This will need to be monitored closely for slight changes in forecast track, as this will determine the impact level in our forecast area.

Once showers/storms clear out Saturday morning, a similar story is likely to unfold. Dangerous heat continues across a majority of our area, with the possible exception of our northern fringes thanks to (you guessed it) lingering outflow and cloud cover. As such, our heat headlines remain unchanged and valid through Saturday evening.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Sunday and Sunday night, confidence continues to increase that a shortwave will dig into the Great Lakes and send a weakening cold front south and into our area. Forcing along this front does not appear to be particularly strong, as it becomes far removed from the shortwave and surface low as it moves through our area. As such, it will likely lose momentum as it arrives, and there is some uncertainty regarding both its timing and potential to drive another round of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation probabilities remain modest as a result (20-40%), but Sunday afternoon/evening represents the next best opportunity for showers and storms.

Much more likely is that this front will bring heat relief to the majority of the area (with a few possible exceptions) early next week, although this may not completely be felt until Monday across the Ozarks. Given the timing uncertainty we have opted not to extend any heat headlines into Sunday just yet, but that potential does exist mainly south of I-70. There is also a very real possibility that this front will stall somewhere near our southern fringes and wash out, which may prevent our far south (Reynolds, Iron, Madison, etc.) from truly seeing substantial heat relief before perhaps a brief rebound on Wednesday. Meanwhile, rain chances diminish behind the front thanks to a push of drier air, although rain chances may linger in the vicinity of the front wherever it stalls. By mid week (WED/THU) a reinforcing shortwave is likely to send another front into our area, renewing modest chances for showers and thunderstorms, and reinforcing heat relief late in the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

This morning's convection has largely departed the area, and winds are gradually swinging back around to the south behind an associated outflow boundary. These southerly winds are expected to persist into the evening before slackening tonight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of northern MO and west-central IL late tonight and tomorrow morning, though at this time, it appears that they will be focused away from all TAF sites other than UIN. That said, thunderstorm activity the last few mornings has been quite difficult to predict, and I can't rule out storms pushing further to the south, like they did this morning. However, my confidence in this happening is not nearly high enough to include a mention of thunder in any of the other TAFs.

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ035-036-042-052.
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ041-047>051- 059>065-072>075-084-085-099.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ026-027-034.
IL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ058>060-064-065- 097>099.
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ069-070-074- 079-100>102.