Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Riviera Beach, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:28PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:36 AM EDT (05:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:50AMMoonset 11:36PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1038 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1038 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stalled frontal boundary will remain south and west of the waters through tonight. The boundary will lift northward as a warm front early Sunday, followed by a cold frontal passage from the west Sunday night. High pressure will briefly build in for Monday before low pressure passes to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be required Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Riviera Beach, MD
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location: 39.16, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 290128 AAA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 928 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A front will stall out near the Appalachians into southern Virginia through tonight. The front will then try to lift north as a warm front early Sunday, before a cold front moves through from the west late Sunday. High pressure will be in control Monday into Tuesday. A low pressure will then approach from the southeast U.S. Tuesday night before departing off the mid- Atlantic coast on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Biggest challenge for tonight is going to be how low cigs get and how low visiblities drop. Short-term guidance is all over the place with MOS guidance suggesting vsbys remain in the 2-4sm range while GLAMP and other hi-res models indicating visibilities dropping to less than half a mile. Not expecting any measurable precip other than some light drizzle.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/.

Short-term models like the HRRR indicate isold supercell potential possible especially along and north of Interstates 68 and 70. Even if warm front fails to lift into PA, there appears to be sufficient elevated instability that supercells could still produce large to very large hail. Convective initation remains questionable especially in southern areas where there is lack of frontal convergence. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are still expected in the northern half of the fcst area.

Previous afd .

Sunday will start with ample low clouds and fog attempting to lift. How quickly it does so may be the key to the forecast. Believe there will be a sharp inversion, with a warm nose which could be as warm as 19C near 925 mb.

A cold front will approach during the day, and cross the region during the afternoon, during peak heating (18-00 UTC). There will be ample shear across the region. Instability will be the question. If the wedge holds, then instability will be minimal and the front would either come through dry or as a few showers (with perhaps an elevated rumble of thunder). But, if the wedge does manage to mix out, then MUCAPE may exceed 1000 j/kg. Given the other ingredients in place, that would be supportive of robust thunderstorms. There are guidance members on each side of the fence.

After collaboration with SPC, decided that the conditional threat great enough to at least mention somehow . hence Marginal Risk of severe. Am maintaining a chance of precip crossing the area in the database, with a slight chance of thunder. It may be that both solutions are correct; ie: cool/stable air across northern Maryland while moist/unstable air present across central Virginia and southern Maryland. Will be monitoring later cycles to discern these details.

Sunday night into Monday a deep cyclone will build across the Great Lakes. The area will experience high pressure but westerly flow and cold advection. Lows will be in the 40s again by Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. An upper level trough over the southern Plains will drop southward through the southern parts of the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas Tuesday into Wednesday. A surface low associated with this trough will move to our south Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday morning. The main area of precipitation should be situated to the south of our forecast area over the Carolinas and the southern portions of Virginia. As the main forcing remains to our south, the precipitation that we observe in our region will likely be caused by a combination of overrunning precipitation and an easterly flow off of the ocean. If this system tracks further northward, our region has the potential to experience heavier precipitation mainly late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Precipitation and an easterly flow will lead to daytime temps running near to slightly below normal for this time of the year in the 50s and lower 60s with overnight lows in the 40s

High pressure builds into our region behind the exiting low Wednesday afternoon and remains over our area through Thursday. Light winds out of north will lead to cooler conditions over our area. Temperatures will continue to hover in the 50s with overnight lows in the 40s on Thursday.

Another cold front is forecast to approach and move through our region Friday and into early Saturday. Models have some decent agreement on the subtropical jet moving northward and phasing with weak jet over the midwest and mid-Atlantic. This phasing will combine with a frontal passage to bring precipitation to our region once again. The main limiting factor will be a westerly flow transporting drier air into our area. We will need to monitor the strength of the jets to determine further hazards for end of next week.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Flight conditions straddling between MVFR and IFR, but across BWI/MTN the marine flow spreading inland has resulted in conditions on the verge of LIFR. Low clouds and fog will continue to spread inland, with LIFR widespread overnight.

Conditions will slowly improve Sunday. How quickly this transpires still in doubt. A cold front will be crossing the terminals this afternoon. If the clearing comes by midday, then strong thunderstorms possible along with the frontal passage. Otherwise it may be a dry front.

VFR will return Sunday night, continuing through Monday.

SubVFR conditions are possible late Tuesday and into Wednesday due to rain and an easterly flow. VFR conditions should return Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday as high pressure builds over our region.

MARINE. Light northeast winds (at or below 10 kt) will continue across the waters through tonight. Low clouds and fog will be thickening through the night. Winds will likely veer south tomorrow as the marine wedge lifts. Its unclear how quickly this will happen, but any clearing would be followed by a threat of thunderstorms with gusty winds late Sunday afternoon.

Conditions will improve Sunday night, but winds shouldn't be high enough to need Small Craft Advisories. No Small Craft issues expected on Tuesday as well, but Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Wednesday due to a northerly flow.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LFR NEAR TERM . LFR SHORT TERM . HTS LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . LFR/JMG MARINE . LFR/JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 4 mi48 min NNE 5.1 G 6 49°F 1014.2 hPa
FSNM2 4 mi66 min N 5.1 G 6 49°F 1013.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 8 mi48 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 50°F 52°F1014 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 13 mi54 min 50°F 1013.5 hPa
CPVM2 14 mi48 min 49°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 16 mi54 min NNE 5.1 G 7 49°F 51°F1014.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 19 mi36 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 50°F1015.2 hPa (-0.9)49°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi126 min NE 1.9 1014 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi48 min ENE 1 G 2.9 51°F 54°F1014.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi48 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 50°F 52°F1015 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 47 mi48 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 51°F 55°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD8 mi42 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist50°F48°F93%1014.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD9 mi42 minno data mi51°F48°F89%1014.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD13 mi42 minN 41.25 miFog/Mist50°F48°F93%1014.3 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi52 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist50°F50°F100%1015.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD14 mi51 minN 02.00 miOvercast48°F46°F94%1015.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi51 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist50°F0°F%1013.9 hPa
College Park Airport, MD24 mi51 minN 05.00 miOvercast49°F46°F94%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBWI

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE5SE4CalmCalmE3CalmSE7E9E8E8E6E8E13E12E9E9NE9E6N4NE6NE5SE3Calm
1 day agoSE3CalmCalmCalmN3NW3NW3CalmW4W5W3W5CalmCalm4E5E5SE4SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW3CalmW3CalmW3CalmSE3CalmW3W8W75S8SW10S6S8S6S8S56S6S3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Creek, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:07 AM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:21 PM EDT     0.35 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.300.40.70.90.90.70.40-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.3-00.20.30.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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