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FXUS65 KLKN 040953 AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 253 AM PDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Strong winter-like weather system impacts the forecast region for the weekend bringing strong winds, accumulating rain and snow, and a few thunderstorms. Unsettled conditions continue early next week with mostly dry weather expected by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM
Saturday Through Sunday

Strong Winter time upper level trough and associated upper low poised to move into Nevada bringing Rain, Snow, and some thunderstorms chances across the area for the weekend. The first effects will be for strong southerly winds that will develop as a strong pressure gradient develops this morning ahead of the upper low. The strongest winds will located across central Nevada as well as across eastern sections of Northern Nevada. A High wind Warning is in effect for NW Nye, S Eureka, and S Lander Counties from 8 AM through 11 PM Saturday. The High Wind Warning for the Ruby Mountains, NE Nye, and White Pine Counties lasts until 2 AM Sunday this will be for winds of 30 to 45 MPH with gusts up to 80 MPH possible. Farther north wind are weaker, but still stout with a Wind Advisory for SW Elko County from 8 AM to 11 PM Saturday, and a Wind Advisory for SE and SC Elko County through 2 AM Sunday.
Here southerly winds of 20 to 35 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH will be possible. Concurrent with the wind threat a strong cold from will enter the state Saturday evening and will serve as a focus for convective showers this evening and overnight as it makes its way through the state. Behind this front winds shift to the NW and temperatures quickly drop into the 30s as precipitation will change over from rain to snow. Snow levels lower to near valley floors during the overnight into Sunday morning with accumulating snows possible above 5000 feet and light accumulations expected above 6500 feet. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for N Elko and White Pine Counties above 6500 feet, as well as the Ruby mountains/E Humboldt range from 11 PM Saturday through noon Sunday for snowfall of 1” to 6”+ and wind gusts up to 70 MPH. Sunday as the main upper low moves overhead the precipitation will become more convective and showery in nature with a rain/snow/graupel mix possible given the unstable conditions. Precipitation will slowly wind down from SW to NE Sunday afternoon and evening as the main upper low lifts NE into ID, showers should end by early Monday Morning. Storm total amounts look to be rather decent with this system, with liquid equivalent (rain) amounts ranging from 0.20” to 1.25”, and that includes areas that will see majority snows like the mountain ranges and peak. Temperatures will be in free fall after this evening as highs Saturday will range in the upper 60s to upper 70s Saturday. As the cold front moves through temperatures fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s overnight into Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will only recover into the upper 30s to upper 40s as the colder air settles in. Lows Monday morning will again drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s with mostly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM
Monday through next Saturday

Monday, in the wake of an exiting upper-level trough, lingering snow showers will continue to occupy areas of Northern Nevada, north of and including I-80. Westerly winds will also be elevated across NE Nevada, with sustained winds 20-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph possible. This may produce areas of blowing snow across the high terrain, where fresh snowfall has accumulated. During the afternoon, a secondary impulse or shortwave, passes through northern Nevada adding bringing with it more energy and instability. With this passage, westerly winds will pick up across much of the state, strongest across Central Nevada. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph may be possible. This may contribute to patches and localized areas of blowing dust. In addition, scattered rain showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Nevada, north of I-80.
rainfall will generally remain under 0.05" across northern Nevada, with snowfall of up to 0.5" across the higher valleys of Northern Nevada. The Jarbidge Wilderness area and the Ruby Mountains may see a quick 1-3 inches of new snow. Highs Monday generally range in the mid to upper 50s south of and including the I-80 corridor, with cooler highs in the 40s across the higher terrain of northern Nevada, to the ID/NV state line. Lows Monday night are forecasted to dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Tuesday, a broad trough like flow encompasses most of the west, as a closed low located over Eastern Montana is the culprit. Some moisture wrapping around the western part of the closed low clips northern Nevada, as scattered to numerous snow showers are forecast across all of Elko, Northern Lander, Eureka, White Pine, and eastern Humboldt counties during the day. Isolated thunder is possible across northern Elko county in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the northwest remaining breezy, 20-25 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. In general snowfall will only be a couple of tenths of an inch. Highs will be cooler, ion the mid to upper 40s, in the locations listed above with scattered to numerous snow showers.
Elsewhere, highs will be in the lower 50s. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be cooler in the mid to upper 20s.

Wednesday will remain remain fairly quiet, under NW flow with partly cloudy skies across much of the area. Highs will generally be in the 50s across the area with lighter, yet still breezy conditions in the afternoon. Lows may range from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday, that closed low that was over Eastern Montana begins to retrograde and potentially bring some isolated to scattered showers back to eastern parts of the state Thursday and Friday.
Little impact is expected. Highs climb back into the 60s Thursday and Friday, with low to mid 70s possible by next Saturday.

AVIATION
VFR conditions early this morning at all terminals. A storm system approaching from the W-NW will begin to impact northern and central NV by the mid morning hours with increasingly stronger southerly winds through the day. Rain showers spread in from the west, reaching KWMC and KBAM in the afternoon hours, and KEKO by early this evening during which times MVFR CIGs are expected. Rain transitions to snow at these sites later this evening with MVFR to IFR CIGs and VIS expected. Winds decrease at KWMC KBAM and KEKO into the evening hours though gusts of 20-25kt are possible through the evening hours.

KELY and KTPH are expected to remain dry through 06Z Sunday, however stronger winds are expected at these terminals (and all of central NV) possibly reaching 45-50kt by this evening. Blowing dust may also reduce visibilities to MVFR or lower levels during the afternoon and evening hours.

KWMC remains AMD NOT SKED due to communication issue.

HYDROLOGY
Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks, and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal snow melt.
A strong low pressure system will bring widespread rain and mountain snow to much of northern and central Nevada over the weekend. liquid equivalent precipitation amounts of 0.20”up to 1.25” is expected across Nevada including northwestern Elko county where most of the flood concerns remain. This will increase flows on several streams and rivers for the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and is forecast remain in action stage while gradually decreasing for the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus continues to slowly rise and is now in minor flood stage and is expected to remain in minor flood stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City currently resides near action stage. The river is forecast to continue to range around action stage for the next several days.



LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon PDT Sunday ABOVE 6500 FEET in Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...White Pine County.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Sunday South Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko County.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Sunday Northeastern Nye County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...White Pine County.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening Southwest Elko County.

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